More disappointment than hope - that's how European leaders can describe the mood for this year's Munich Security Conference. Just a year into Donald Trump's second presidential term, transatlantic relations appear to be in ruins. Trump's destructive foreign policy casts a shadow over the prestigious Munich meeting.
"An Unprecedented Crisis of Trust and Reliability"
The Munich Security Conference (MSC) has been defined as transatlantic for decades. But according to its chairman, Wolfgang Ischinger, there is currently an "unprecedented crisis of trust and reliability". The title of the Munich Security Report - the main document of the meeting - also sounds significant: "Under Destruction" ("In the process of demolition").
The report classifies Donald Trump as a "demolition man", i.e. a head of state who, with his destructive policies, destroys existing rules and respected institutions. Trump's assertion that he has no need for international law is just one of many proofs of this.
Although the circumstances are more challenging than ever, the Munich Security Conference, founded more than 60 years ago, continues to be seen as a forum for exchange and dialogue this year. Among the participants (over 1,000 people) are more than 200 official representatives of governments from 120 countries.
During the discussions at the prestigious "Bayerischer Hof" Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who recently bravely confronted Donald Trump over his claims to Greenland, will participate. Bulgaria is represented by President Iliana Yotova and outgoing Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov.
Trump sends Secretary of State Marco Rubio
Despite the tensions in transatlantic relations, a large US delegation led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio is arriving in Munich this year. Conference chairman Ischinger said he expects Rubio to talk about American foreign policy, not about topics that do not directly concern his portfolio. This was a clear reference to the fiery speech with which US Vice President J.D. Vance irritated the audience at the conference last year - then he accused European leaders of censoring free speech.
However, the US delegation has long been made up of more than just Trump supporters. It also includes determined opponents of the American president, such as Gavin Newsom, the governor of California. Already in his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he made it clear that in the future he expects Europeans to be "more firm" and unwavering - in his opinion, they bend too easily to Trump.
Europe on the verge of a new era of self-assertion?
Thus, Newsom touched on the essence of the question that is expected to play an important role at this year's conference: how to reorient Europe in this changed world situation? And what role can Germany play in this? Chancellor Friedrich Merz will address this in his opening speech.
In a recent statement to the Bundestag, Merz called on Europeans to "learn to speak the language of power politics". This includes serious investments in European defense capabilities, as well as building new partnerships.
Around the world, there are "developing democracies with open and growing markets that are looking for what we have to offer," Merz emphasized in the Bundestag. And he added, looking at the US: "As democracies, we are partners and allies, not subordinates".
In Munich, the German Chancellor will probably elaborate on the topic, thereby setting the tone for a debate in which the current crisis is also seen as a catalyst for strategic change.
Representatives of the Iranian regime are unwelcome
Invitations to participate in the Munich Security Conference are in high demand, but are being handed out very cautiously. Unlike in the past, this year representatives of the Iranian government are not welcome in Munich. The reason: the violence with which the leadership in Tehran suppressed the latest demonstrations in the country. However, representatives of the Iranian opposition and civil society will take the floor at the conference.
Although Russia's war against Ukraine is likely to be a central topic of the conference again, representatives of the Russian government will not be present. In 2022, when the forum was held shortly before the start of a large-scale Russian attack on Ukraine, the Russian delegation collectively refused to participate, Ischinger, the conference chairman, recalled. Since then, he has not heard "not a word" from Moscow about any participation.
Regarding the negotiations for a possible end to the war, Ischinger stressed that Russia is supposedly willing to negotiate, but at the same time it is terrorizing the Ukrainian civilian population. That is why the "Ewald von Kleist" The ICC Prize this year is not being awarded to a deserving individual, but to "the brave Ukrainian people".
AfD is back
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is partly considered extremist, has not been welcome in Munich for the past two years. The conference chairman, Wolfgang Ischinger, has reversed his predecessor's course and decided not to exclude the largest opposition party in the Bundestag any longer.
This year, three of its representatives - MPs - have been invited, but they will not take part in the discussions. Last year, the AfD considered its exclusion to be unjustified discrimination and took legal action against it, but lost the case in court.
Author: Nina Werkheuser