While rumors have been circulating in Washington for some time that after Trump, J.D. Vance, Vice President, has a chance to replace him as president, whenever that time comes, "Bild" has already written that "the motherfucker" Merkel could become the next president of Germany.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, also tipped for a presidential candidate, was quick to say that he would gladly work for Vance as vice president and thus tried to deflect speculation that he was in a competition with the vice president for entry into the White House. Which does not prevent him from appearing in Munich with a large American delegation with the intention of softening Vance's harsh tone towards Europe from the previous Security Conference in the Bavarian capital.
In Berlin, they apparently cannot find another person who can oppose the increasing influence of the "Alternative for Germany" /especially in East Germany/ that they are testing the waters to bring Merkel back into the politics of Berlin, which has fallen into a prolonged period of recession. In London, they are waiting for Starmer to resign, because there is no one left around him from his close team who is not involved in the Epstein Files.
Labor will not be able to withstand any more blows to the party's image. The Scottish Labor leader has openly demanded Starmer's resignation, and speculation is that MPs Rayner or Streeting will compete for Starmer's place. Not that anything will change in the politics of Britain led by Labor, but at least to retain an honorable place in the next elections. Because Farage, recognized as a prominent Trumpist in the country, is preparing to win the right to be the next prime minister. And the Tories will not fail to use the tension around Starmer and will definitely hammer the final nail into his political coffin.
For Macron, it is clear - he has 15 months left until the end of his term and he will make efforts until then to unite all French parties against the Le Pen/Bardella tandem, so as not to allow the charismatic Bardella to the presidency. If he is successful in love, and with a rich heiress, according to the French tabloid press, why should he be the winner in the elections, right? Which does not prevent Macron from trying to change something in foreign policy at the last minute to leave a good memory. For example, to talk to Putin that gas is quite expensive, farmers want to leave the EU because of Mercosur and burn the Brussels flag, and military spending and misunderstandings with Trump only bring negatives to his personal image and the state of the French economy. What is happening internally must be covered up, and Macron is good at that.
There is no need for comments about Beijing and Xi Jinping. Whether there was a coup or simply the removal of generals who deviated from the straight line in Beijing is no longer on the agenda of the country and the world. Xi Jinping stands firmly at the helm of the Celestial Empire and talks now with Putin, now with Trump, but coordinates actions with Moscow, because the American president likes to step on his feet, and recently on his hands with his policies towards allies such as Venezuela, Cuba, Iran and Central Asia, around the Caspian Sea. He affects interests and does not show the "due respect", which is especially important in China. And in Moscow, undoubtedly.
As for Putin, for years the West has been associating him with illness, then with pretenders to his place, then openly pointing to someone who was preferred by the "King in the Kremlin" for his successor. Who is left from the series of important leaders for whom it is important who will take their place after the end of their political longevity?
Erdogan is next. Especially since it is known that this topic is taboo in Turkish politics. As well as his illnesses, which are difficult to hide at times. Recently, however, Turkish media, followed by "Bloomberg" because of their information, have been asking the question "who will be Erdogan's successor?" and pointing to Bilal Erdogan for the era after Erdogan the father. They refer to Bilal Erdogan's increased visibility and place in the state protocol. It was a potential signal of leadership.
For now, the media is carefully commenting on the topic, because in Erdogan's ruling party, the Justice and Development Party, the AKP, the successor is being pointed out secretly, behind "closed doors". But "Bilal Erdogan's increasing visibility is remarkable". This Harvard graduate, 44, who interned at the World Bank, is not only his father's son, but also of interest to Washington. And lately, Erdogan's policy has been more pro-Western than balancing between East and West.
After more than 20 years at the helm of Turkey, it is clearly time for Erdogan to think about a successor in the party and the state, in order to preserve the elite around him, the party as a whole, and to prevent a revision of his rule. God forbid, legal prosecutions after the end of his political career. Who else can he trust besides his family and make a dynastic change with so many internal enemies and geopolitical pressure?
The eldest son is out of politics due to scandals and a fatal accident. Only Bilal remains and he has already participated in numerous trips abroad, meetings with the Saudi Crown Prince Salman, visits Pakistan, Malaysia, Qatar and other countries with his father and thus his popularity is growing. It is reflected appropriately in the media.
Some say that this is a "controlled increase in visibility". The fact is that Bilal Erdogan's entry into politics and his potential leadership are beginning to be appreciated in the AKP. He also had influence in the selection of high-ranking officials in the party and the government. Certainly, for the "successor situation" in the AKP, other options are not being considered. Simply because they would, according to the statements, be detrimental to the current government. That is why the "Fidan option", which has long been a topic of speculation in the country as Erdogan's alleged successor, is already a thing of the past.
Foreign Minister Fidan no longer participates in public events, and this is considered a clear signal that Erdogan will not allow a strong leader to compete with his son. The transfer of power within the family must be arranged smoothly and without problems. There must be no disintegration in the AKP. This is a new battle for Erdogan. And Bilal Erdogan himself has received "informal training in political leadership" and has already managed to build a strong team, they say, around himself.
In Ankara, they are definitely preparing scenarios for after 2028. According to the current constitution, Erdogan's mandate ends in 2028. The AKP is looking for a formula to extend this period. If the constitution is amended or parliament decides on new snap elections, Erdogan can run again. If he wins the elections, "he can gradually transfer the party chairmanship to Bilal and appoint him vice president". And from there to the first place is a short path. In this way, the Ottoman traditions of power being passed from father to son are also preserved.
Although Erdogan has transformed Turkey from the ground up. From a parliamentary republic, it is now a presidential system. Erdogan's party was created as moderate Islamists who broke secular power, but the government became authoritarian and this pushed away a number of Erdogan's associates. Today they are in opposition - Davutoglu, Gul, Babacan, and some with their own parties. Erdogan's opponents are the Kurds, pro-Western liberals, Kemalists such as the HRP, the Republican People's Party, and the mayor of Istanbul, Imamoglu, is in prison on charges of corruption and running a criminal organization. He faces the risk of life imprisonment and a ban on political activity.
This reduces the obstacles for Erdogan, because Imamoglu is considered Erdogan's biggest opponent in the upcoming presidential elections. The opposition responds with mass rallies in support of Imamoglu, but other opposition leaders are also subjected to the so-called police war. And the majority of them are pro-Western. It is no secret that there are "sleeper cells" among the institutions in Turkey of supporters of Fethullah Gulen, who, although dead, remains their preferred leader. Erdogan has not forgotten the coup attempt, but despite the purges carried out among the army, institutions, education, i.e. among Gulen's networks, his popularity is not like that of previous years. The economic crisis, the decline of the Turkish lira and high inflation are destroying Erdogan's popularity and giving impetus to the liberal forces. The circle around Erdogan, they say, has shrunk.
What is the situation in a country where the Turkish Statistical Institute recently reported that the population is 86 million, Istanbul is nearly 16 million, and men are 50.02% of the population compared to 49.98% women? The annual population growth rate in Turkey is 5 per thousand, foreigners in the country are 1.5 million people and among this population, women are more - 50.7%. The share of the child population /up to 14 years/ is 20.4%, the age group 15-64 is 68.5%, and people over 65 are 11.1%. At the same time, the Turkish media in recent days has focused primarily not so much on the problems in the country related to the reduced purchasing power of the population, the increased prices everywhere or the bankruptcies of a number of companies, but on the decreasing support for the EU, which has reached only 26% among citizens.
The surveys showed a remarkable decline of 8% for 2025, and preferences have shifted towards the Islamic world. They believe that the economic pressure from Europe on Turkey is a major reason. While the "Made in Europe" initiative has created export risks in the market for cars and car parts for $ 30 billion, another blow came with the Mercosur trade agreement and the India initiative for $ 117 billion. This has made the Customs Union in Turkey ineffective. The way is open for foreign products to enter the country with low or zero tariffs. Turkey has been "excluded from the game".
The EU agreements directly or indirectly affect all sectors, but mainly the automotive industry, mechanical engineering, pharmaceuticals and chemicals, which causes dissatisfaction among industrialists and manufacturers. The reason is that the customs union agreement signed between Turkey and the EU automatically obliges Ankara to comply with Brussels' free trade agreements with third countries. Domestic production in Turkey is being destroyed. In this regard, the current account deficit will also be a major problem, which will weaken the competitiveness of exports and increase the pressure on imports.
With Mercosur and India, Turkey was displaced, which necessitates focusing on market diversification. With two or three steps, the EU strikes and the conclusion is "we are standing here with our hands tied". 50% of exports are slipping away. Brussels said "Turkey, you are important to me, but you are not irreplaceable. We are preparing alternatives". Indian and South American products will apparently come to Turkey tax-free, but there will be duties on Turkish goods. It is written with irony "what a wonderful world, what a profitable trade". In all likelihood, Ankara will demand an update of the Customs Union. "Erdogan is working for this", say the Turkish media.
But they pay special attention to Bilal Erdogan's statements to "Al Jazeera" from the end of January. According to him, Arab countries want to see a prosperous Turkey and hinting at the process after
Erdogan, says "we who come after him must work to capture and elevate the same spirit, whether in politics, social life, civil society and education". Erdogan the son's leadership in youth organizations and his close ties with Islamic groups provided an advantage in terms of gaining support from the party base and at the same time a smooth transition.
It is clear that Bilal, as he is now called, is familiar with the Western system, but his family has nurtured his father's Islamic ideas, i.e. he is presented as a moderate Islamist with a patriotic profile. Erdogan is counting on being able to balance between East and West. But the question is how ordinary citizens of Turkey will accept him and how events in geopolitics will develop. And there it is becoming increasingly complicated. Not only the presence of a family springboard is required.