The US has increased pressure on Cuba. The oil embargo affects not only the population - the communist regime is definitely weakened. Trump openly threatens that he may take over the country one way or another.
Cuba is in darkness - the population literally, and the government figuratively. Earlier this week, the electricity went out throughout the country - for the fourth time in two years. The tenth large-scale power outage since 2024 has sparked protests, some of which were accompanied by violence. In the context of the crisis and pressure from the US, the state leadership is so helpless that it is negotiating even with its mortal enemy in order to continue its existence.
After US President Donald Trump's threat that he could one way or another "take over Cuba", the contours of the Sword of Damocles hanging over Havana, which were already outlined during the US action in Venezuela in early January, began to become clearer. The arrest of Nicolas Maduro showed the Cuban regime what Trump is capable of, but also deprived it of its closest ally and main oil supplier.
Why does Trump want to "take over" Cuba?
Cuba, which is located 150 km from the US coast, has been a thorn in the side of the US since the revolution led by Fidel Castro in 1959. His communist regime has come under fire from the once powerful US influence and is seen as a springboard for hostile governments such as those in Moscow, Beijing and Caracas.
Donald Trump has already thwarted President Barack Obama's timid attempts to restore relations with Cuba during his first term. This has brought relief to many Cuban exiles and their descendants around the world - they want to see the regime fall. One of them is US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, for whom the Cuban diaspora in the US is an important constituency.
The fact that Donald Trump is escalating his rhetoric right now has domestic political motives, says foreign policy expert Clemens Fischer. It is probably "an attempt to get out of the way after things in Iran are not going the way Trump would like", he told German public broadcaster ZDF. "He needs to show that he is a strong president. On the other hand, he must save himself from starting another war."
In fact, the American president had already increased the pressure on Cuba - on his orders, Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez completely stopped the already reduced oil supplies to Cuba. In addition, since January, the US has been blocking the sea routes to the Caribbean island and threatening the supplying countries with sanctions. According to the Cuban government, the country has not received any oil for three months, and local production covers only 30 percent of its needs. The frequency of power outages is directly related to this, since Cuba's electricity is mainly produced by oil-fired power plants.
The worst economic crisis in three decades
The energy shortage is only one aspect of the current economic crisis, says Cuban economist Elias Amor, who lives in Spain. The Cuban economy has been collapsing for the sixth year in a row, at an average annual rate of 2.75 percent. In 2025, the rate was even five percent. "The Cuban economy is in its worst state since the 1990s and the collapse of the Soviet Union and the socialist bloc."
Then, within four years, real incomes fell by 90 percent. Some recovery was achieved on the basis of reforms and the gradual opening of the tourism sector, but real progress only came when Hugo Chavez took over the leadership of Venezuela and replaced the USSR as a sponsor.
The gradual opening of the Cuban economy managed to prevent a new crisis like in the 1990s, but the limited reforms carried out in recent years have had almost no effect, Amor points out. "Even tourism can no longer sustain the crisis, as the engines of the economy have completely stopped."
What can the Cuban government do to oppose the United States?
There are reports that a tanker from the Russian shadow fleet was headed for Cuba, but strong pressure from within and without has apparently forced the Cuban regime to negotiate. At the beginning of the week, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Trade Oscar Perez-Oliva said that Cuba is ready for open trade relations with American companies and for investments by Cubans living there. But this is not enough for the United States. Foreign Minister Rubio is demanding drastic changes to turn around the dysfunctional economy. In addition, they are demanding from Washington the release not of individual people, but of all political prisoners in Cuba, which, according to the human rights organization Prisoners Defenders, number 1,214.
However, María José Espinosa, director of the human rights organization CEDA, does not believe that the regime is on the verge of imminent collapse. "The state apparatus - the Communist Party, the security forces and the military-economic system - remains relatively closed."
Will Cuba succumb to US pressure?
But cracks are already visible. President Miguel Díaz-Canel is seen as a more or less replaceable party functionary and a weakened one. Only the military - and members of the Castro family - could bring about fundamental change in Cuba. "The Castro family controls and directs the negotiations with the United States," Ted Henken, a Latin America expert at City University in New York, told DW.
Deputy Prime Minister Perez-Oliva, who is a great-nephew of the Castro brothers, and Raul Castro's grandson, Raul Guillermo, are seen as power-hungry. "Everything indicates that they represent the interests of the Castro family and will lead the government in one form or another," Henken said. But even with a new generation, he noted, structural reforms will take several years at the earliest.