With global energy prices rising and his job approval rating falling, Donald Trump faces a stark choice after a month of war with Iran: make a potentially imperfect deal and withdraw his forces or escalate militarily and risk a protracted conflict that could consume his presidency.
Despite the flurry of diplomatic activity, Trump is wrapping up another week of a joint US-Israeli campaign struggling to contain a widening crisis in the Middle East, while a rebellious Iran maintains control of oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf and continues missile and drone strikes in region.
Analysts say the central question now is whether Trump is prepared to scale back or escalate what critics call his war of choice, which has caused the worst global energy supply shock in history and has spread far beyond the region.
Trump has told aides he wants to avoid a "forever war" and find a negotiated solution, urging them to emphasize his publicly outlined duration of the military action of four to six weeks, a senior White House official said, adding that such a timeline appears "unsustainable."
At the same time, Trump has threatened a major military escalation if talks fail.
Trump's diplomatic overtures to Iran, including a 15-point peace proposal sent through Pakistan, have appeared to show an increasingly urgent search for a way out. But it remains unclear whether there is a realistic prospect of fruitful negotiations at this time.
"President Trump has a poor chance of ending the war," said Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East. "Part of the challenge is the lack of clarity about what a satisfactory outcome would be."
A White House official insisted that the Iran campaign "will end when the commander in chief determines that our objectives have been achieved." and that Trump has set clear goals.
Fighting to contain the escalating war
Apparently bracing himself, Trump is deploying thousands more U.S. troops to the region and warning Iran of a stepped-up offensive, possibly including the use of ground troops, if it does not comply with his demands.
Analysts say such a show of force could be intended to create leverage for concessions from Tehran, but it risks dragging the U.S. into a more protracted conflict, with any commitment to deploy troops on Iranian soil likely to anger many American voters.
Another possible scenario, experts say, would be for the U.S. to conduct a final major airstrike in Operation Epic Fury to further destroy Iran's military capabilities and nuclear facilities, after which Trump could declare victory and walk away with the argument that his military goals have been achieved.
Such a claim, however, would ring hollow unless the key Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, which Iran has so far refused to do. The American leader expressed frustration at the refusal of European allies to send warships to help secure the waterway.
Trump, who has repeatedly vowed to keep the United States out of foreign conflicts, appears to be struggling to contain the escalating war he started with Israel.
While he continues to make triumphant assessments, he has increasingly geared his messages toward calming nervous financial markets, pressing top aides to emphasize that the war will soon be over, a senior White House official said.
But the lack of a clear exit strategy poses dangers to both Trump's presidential legacy and his party's prospects as Republicans struggle to protect their slim majority in Congress in November's midterm elections.
Trump's biggest error in judgment is the scale of Tehran's retaliation. The Islamic Republic has used its remaining missiles and drones to strike Israel and neighboring Gulf states and largely shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil passes, shaking the global economy.
"The Iranian government's bet is that they can take more pain for longer than their adversaries, and they may be right," said John Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington.
A White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Trump and his team were "well-prepared" for Iran's response in the strait and were confident it would soon be reopened.
However, the clearest sign of Trump's growing anxiety about war came on Monday when he dramatically backtracked on a threat to destroy Iran's energy grid if it did not allow shipping through the strait to resume.
In a move seen as aimed at calming markets, he announced a five-day truce in carrying out his threat to give diplomacy a chance. On Thursday, he extended that pause by another 10 days.
At the same time, pressure is mounting at home.
Polls show the war is deeply unpopular among Americans, and while Trump's MAGA movement largely supports him, his influence with his political base could wane if the economic fallout, including high gas prices, continues.
Trump's overall approval rating has fallen to 36 percent, the lowest since he returned to the White House.
The White House is increasingly concerned about the political fallout of the war, a former senior Trump administration official acknowledged, citing concerns expressed by Republican lawmakers about the upcoming midterm elections.
In evidence of the growing anxiety among Republicans, U.S. Representative Mike Rogers, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee representatives, on Thursday criticized the administration for not providing enough information about the scope of the Iranian campaign.
In response, the White House official said that Trump aides had briefed Congress repeatedly before and during the war.
A Busy Diplomacy Complicated by Assassinations
For now, however, the diplomatic path offers no easy solutions.
The 15-point plan presented by Trump is similar to what Iran largely rejected in pre-war talks, and includes some elements that would be difficult to implement. The demands range from eliminating Iran's nuclear program and limiting its missile arsenal to abandoning its proxy groups and effectively handing over control of the strait.
Iran has called the U.S. proposal unfair and unrealistic - although it has not ruled out further indirect contacts.
Although Trump said on Thursday that Iran was "begging" to make a deal, the country's leaders appear in no hurry to negotiate an end to the conflict, believing they will be in a position to claim victory only by surviving.
Complicating any diplomatic effort is the replacement of some leaders killed in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes with even more hardline successors, analysts say. The leaders have made clear their distrust of Trump, who has launched air strikes twice in the past year while the two sides are still negotiating.
"The president is willing to listen, but if they fail to accept the reality of the moment, they will be hit harder than ever," the White House official warned.
Meanwhile, Israeli officials have worried that Trump might make concessions that could tie their hands in further strikes against Iran.
Washington's Gulf allies may also resent the U.S.'s hasty exit from the conflict, given that they could be left with a wounded, hostile neighbor.
Conflicting signals keep opponents off balance.
If Trump is indeed willing to deploy ground forces, he could take control of Iran's oil hub on Kharg Island or other strategic islands, conduct operations along its coast, or send special forces in a complex attempt to seize the stockpile of highly enriched uranium, believed to have been mostly buried underground by US-Israeli bombing last June.
Such actions could escalate into a broader conflict reminiscent of the long-running wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which Trump has vowed the US would never be involved in while in office. They would also risk increasing American casualties and raise further questions about the goals of the U.S. mission.
Gulf allies have warned the administration against deploying U.S. troops on the ground in Iran, saying it could provoke greater retaliation from Tehran, possibly against their energy and civilian infrastructure, a senior Gulf official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
A White House official said Trump had made it clear that he had "no plans to send ground troops anywhere at this time," but added that he always kept all options on the table.
For now, Trump is keeping the world in the dark, one moment making statements aimed at calming volatile markets, the next making threats that are driving up energy prices.
"Trump is trading mixed signals," said Laura Blumenfeld of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. "He is a one-man messaging machine who keeps his opponents off balance."