Bulgaria, a key supplier to Ukraine, has announced that it will no longer supply weapons to Kiev. Instead, it states that negotiations for a "just peace" should be held. However, behind this announcement lies a completely different development. This is what Philipp Volkmann-Schluck, senior editor in the foreign policy department, writes for the "Die Welt" newspaper.
"Bulgaria is a country with many secrets. This small NATO member on the Black Sea has a large arms industry and thus plays a central role in the defense of Ukraine and Europe. However, things are often not as they seem at first glance. The government in Sofia has already written history in its own unique way. In the months following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Bulgaria’s pro-Russian President Rumen Radev categorically rejected any arms supplies to Kiev.
At the same time, however, the pro-Western then-Prime Minister Kiril Petkov secretly organized large-scale ammunition supplies - covering about 1/3 of the country’s needs and significantly helping Ukraine survive the first phase of the war. High-ranking politicians from Ukraine and Bulgaria revealed these events in 2023.
In April, Bulgaria saw another significant change in power. Former President Radev now leads the country’s politics as Prime Minister. He was elected to the post by a large majority. During his election campaign, Radev opposed support for Ukraine and advocated closer relations with Russia.
Bulgaria's position on Russia is divisive
Bulgaria's population is divided between staunch pro-Europeans and citizens who traditionally feel connected to Russia. Since then, there have been concerns in Brussels that the Balkan country, like Hungary under Viktor Orbán, is becoming a pro-Russian "Trojan horse" within the EU.
This sentiment was reflected in one of the first official acts of Radev's cabinet. The new Defense Minister, Dimitar Stoyanov, announced yesterday that Bulgaria would no longer supply weapons to the Ukrainian army. He said it was time to "return to the negotiating table" and seek a "just peace" that is "determined by both sides". Stoyanov added that supplying more weapons to Ukraine would only cost lives. These are statements that Putin is likely to appreciate.
If his words are to be believed, this announcement will have huge consequences for Ukraine. It is certain that, according to the Ministry of Defense, Bulgaria exported weapons worth approximately 6.5 billion euros between 2022 and 2025, with the majority of them going to Ukraine. Officially, a total of 13 weapons packages containing ammunition, weapon systems and armored vehicles were delivered to Kiev. These include S-300 air defense systems, anti-tank weapons and 82-millimeter mortars. However, the exact volumes are difficult to establish, since a significant part of the commercial deliveries - that is, those paid for by Ukraine - are carried out through third countries and intermediaries.
Obsolete free weapons are hardly needed anymore
Since the Balkan country still has Soviet-era weapons factories, its supplies were particularly suitable for the needs of the Ukrainian army in the early years of the war. In the meantime, however, the Ukrainian armed forces continue to modernize and today use more and more systems of Western production and their own development.
Behind the loud words about "just peace" lies a completely different development. Bulgaria is modernizing its defense industry and becoming an important supplier to NATO. In December, German arms company Rheinmetall announced it would invest more than 1 billion euros in a plant in Sopot, employing more than 1,000 people and due to start operations in 2027.
Once it opens, the plant will produce 100,000 artillery shells a year, as well as powder charges for up to 150,000 rounds of ammunition. Analyst Dimitar Bechev, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, said: "I expect Bulgarian exports to Germany to grow rapidly".
The EU's SAFE programme will provide Bulgaria with more than 3 billion euros, much of it in the form of loans. The country is to become part of the EU's planned anti-drone shield on NATO's southeastern flank and modernise its navy with new Black Sea surveillance ships.
In addition, the Bulgarian caretaker government announced cooperation with Ukraine just before the autumn elections. The two countries intend to jointly develop drones and operate production facilities in both Bulgaria and Ukraine. So far, there have been no signals from Sofia that this partnership will be terminated, which would also represent a serious step backwards for the Bulgarian economy.
Arms sales remain possible
That the statements of the Bulgarian Minister of Defense were probably more of a political gesture towards pro-Russian voters than a sign of a fundamental change in policy, became clear today - just a day after his initial comment.
Minister Stoyanov stated that the purchase of Bulgarian weapons remains possible.
"We are terminating the supply of weapons and ammunition from the warehouses of the Bulgarian army. "I emphasize - deliveries, not sales," he said.
This means that Bulgarian traders and the defense industry can continue their business. For now, there will simply be no new gratuitous packages for Ukraine. It is likely that this is mainly about stocks of Soviet-style weapons, which are gradually losing their importance in the modernization process anyway.
Minister Stoyanov hastened to add that this is how his party's "promises" from the election campaign are being fulfilled.
His message has clearly reached its audience, although without the essential clarification made the next day. Russian propaganda media widely covered the alleged suspension of arms deliveries and the Bulgarian call for peace.
Independent investigations show that the country in Southeast Europe has been inundated with pro-Russian disinformation campaigns for years. Similar manipulations likely played a role during the election campaign.
To this day, Russian officials claim that Russia saved Bulgaria from Ottoman rule in the 19th century, even though the Kremlin itself invaded the country in 1944.
In Bulgaria, things are often not what they seem at first glance. So far, this strategy has been successful for Rumen Radev.