Sergey Karaganov, director of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, is often presented as the chief architect of Russian foreign policy. Vladimir Putin insists that he is among the authors he reads regularly. In Russian power circles, he is one of the most closely followed and listened to intellectual guarantors of the war waged by Vladimir Putin's regime in Ukraine and against Europe.
In an interview with the French online publication Le Grand Continent, Karaganov draws gloomy predictions for the future of the Old Continent.
According to him, within 10-15 years, Russia and the United States will divide Europe. The countries of Southern Europe and much of Eastern Europe will be assigned to Greater Eurasia - a space designed not so much to counter the power of the United States as to ensure the triumph of normal policies and political values. And the United Kingdom and 3-4 other countries will become the European appendage of the United States.
LE GRAND CONTINENT: How do you understand the rapprochement between Trump and Putin? Vladislav Surkov seems to think, for example, that "Putin's Russia is now surrounded by doubles and imitators" and that the White House is deploying a strategy towards Canada, Greenland or the Panama Canal that is nothing more than "an imitation of our brave, consolidated, militant and borderless Russian nation"?
SERGEY KARAGANOV: Contrary to what some people imagine, Trump has a very personal political and economic philosophy according to which he makes his decisions in a radical but fundamentally sensible way. His philosophy is largely unrelated to Russia, and parallels of this nature seem more ridiculous to me than anything else.
LE GRAND CONTINENT: How do you define Donald Trump's "philosophy"?
S. KARAGANOV: Trump is an American nationalist who exhibits some characteristics of traditional messianism in the United States. If he sometimes surprises us, it is because he has been vaccinated against the globalist-liberal parasites of the last three or four decades.
LE GRAND CONTINENT: It is in his attacks on liberalism that he often seems to emphasize shared values with Putin's Russia. Even with regard to the war in Ukraine, the Trump administration seems to be seeking rapprochement between the United States and Russia. Why? How do you understand this experience?
S. KARAGANOV: At this stage, the Trump administration has no reason to negotiate with us on the terms we have set - and therefore this rapprochement will be difficult. Although the war in Ukraine is unnecessary and even somewhat harmful for the American president, who is only a figurative leader, from the US point of view, that is, from a domestic point of view, the balance of interests is actually favorable to its continuation.
LE GRAND CONTINENT: Explain.
S. KARAGANOV: The war is economically beneficial for the United States, as it allows it to modernize its military-industrial complex, rob its European allies with new power, and enforce its economic interests through systematic sanctions against various countries around the world. And, of course, it allows the United States to inflict further damage on Russia in the hope of exhausting it and, ideally, crushing or eliminating it as the military-strategic core of the emerging and emancipated global majority. Not to mention that it is also a powerful strategic support for America's main competitor, China.
LE GRAND CONTINENT: Some observers and some supporters of the American president are now highlighting the existence of a complex operation, a kind of Kissinger in reverse: fifty years after Nixon's visit to Beijing, the White House is seeking to distance Russia from China, this time by rapprochement with the Kremlin. Do you think this interpretation is in line with current trends? And what risk does it pose to your doctrine of "global majority"?
S. KARAGANOV: A break between Russia and China would be absurdly counterproductive for us. Although members of the Trump administration since the first term have been trying to convince us to do so, they now understand that Russia will never accept this condition.
LE GRAND CONTINENT: So, in your opinion, there are not enough conditions that would lead to rapprochement between the United States and Russia?
S. KARAGANOV: Three factors could push Trump to negotiate a satisfactory agreement for Russia on Ukraine. The first would be Russia’s de facto withdrawal from its alliance with China – we can rule that out. The second is the threat of a repeat of the grotesque retreat from Kabul, which would mean a complete defeat and shameful capitulation of the Kiev regime and the clear failure of the US-led West. And the third is the risk of military action spreading to the United States and its vital assets around the world, with huge American losses, including the destruction of military bases. Only these last two elements are still valid today.
The complete defeat of Ukraine - with its complete surrender, which could have a domino effect on Europe - remains our goal, but it will be extremely expensive, even prohibitive, since it would lead to the death of several thousand of our best children, unless it is reinforced by a more active use of nuclear deterrence, which I defend, to break this impasse.
LE GRAND CONTINENT: Would Russia have an interest in the White House continuing its strategy of annexing Greenland, putting the territorial integrity of one of its NATO allies on the negotiating table?
S. KARAGANOV: To put it bluntly, NATO is not just a relic of the Cold War: it is above all a cancer that is eating away at European security. I do not know what the outcome of the annexation of Greenland will be, but if it does happen, I hope it will contribute to NATO being consigned to the dustbin of history - and the sooner the better. It deserves nothing less. For years I have been criticizing Russian policymakers who are trying to reestablish ties with this organization, which is by definition hostile, conflict-generating, and also criminal, as it is guilty of serial aggression.
Here I will only recall the rape of Yugoslavia, the monstrous war that the vast majority of NATO countries waged in Iraq, where a million people were killed and where the human toll continues to this day, or NATO's aggression against Libya, which led to the destruction of a relatively prosperous country, one of the most prosperous countries in North Africa. I hope NATO dies. This organization has no other future. In the past, it could have played a rather positive role, containing Germany, limiting the influence of communism - which was actually its main goal - balancing the USSR in a relatively stable system of great power confrontation.
LE GRAND CONTINENT: Do you think that the European Union is the common enemy of the White House and the Kremlin? Does the term "collective Europe" have any meaning for you? Is it related to the concept of "Eurofascism" now used by Russian intelligence services, which call for a new alliance between Russia and the United States?
S. KARAGANOV: I am saddened by the trajectory that European countries and the European Union are taking. Due to the moral decline of their elites, the European project is now at a dead end, having reached a certain peak. The current political generation is failing on all fronts and is seeking salvation by fostering growing hostility, even by preparing for war against Russia, which is truly astonishing, a kind of preparation for a quick suicide.
I believe that collective Europe is inevitably doomed to disintegration. I do not think that it can survive long as a whole without disintegrating. This would clearly have positive consequences. Collective Europe, as it exists today, under the dual leadership of a consumerist elite and a failed elite fanning the flames of war hysteria, certainly does not serve Russia's interests. The previous hypothesis, that of a peaceful Europe, was much more in our interest, not to mention that the current policy of Europe also does not meet the interests of its own population - but I do not want to speak for them.
As for "Eurofascism", it is clear that we are seeing the symptoms. I have been saying this for a long time, for almost fifteen years. The accumulated failures and decline of Europe in international competition mean that sooner or later we will see these symptoms manifest in an increasing number of European countries - I just hope that this will not be the case everywhere, even if the signs are already visible. Ultraliberalism has always manifested itself in the form of its own inverted mirror. That is why I foresee the rise of Eurofascism, not in the forms it took under Franco, Mussolini or Hitler, but under the guise of liberal neo-totalitarianism. Europe is about to go through a difficult period: fascist and nationalist tendencies will certainly strengthen in many countries.
I have the impression that Russia is well aware of all this and that this time we will be able to confront it, we will be able to prevent Europe from becoming a threat to our security and the security of the world. Ultimately, we will be able to confront it ourselves. I remind you that I am a Russian European, albeit a Eurasian one. But this does not change the fact that Europe has been the source of the greatest disasters of humanity over the past five centuries.
LE GRAND CONTINENT: Do you support the idea put forward by Curtis Yarvin and other intellectuals from the circle around Trump that European nations should be helped - including through regime change - to restore their traditional culture and more authoritarian forms of government, together with Russia?
S. KARAGANOV: I do not share the idea that European nations should be helped, but I hope that they will achieve this on their own, one way or another. Any external intervention would slow down this movement. Europe has been the cradle of the worst ideological currents, monstrous wars and mass genocides. More authoritarian governments or norms could once again have catastrophic consequences for the rest of the world. That is why the option I prefer is instead to acknowledge the end of the European adventure, for Russia to distance itself from Europe and finally admit that its European path is coming to an end. We no longer have anything to gain from Europe except military threats and the infection of its pseudo-values.
LE GRAND CONTINENT: Do you think that the Eurasian horizon has finally closed?
S. KARAGANOV: Europe is losing ground. Its cultural influence, once beneficial, is now harmful. This saddens me even more because Russia remains largely 50 or 60% European in cultural terms. I strongly suspect that within ten or fifteen years, perhaps even sooner, the countries of Southern Europe and much of Eastern Europe will join the Greater Eurasia. As for the countries of the Northwest, they will continue to rot in place and disappear from the world stage, unless, of course, they can overcome their impulses to reject their own fundamental values.
The United Kingdom and three or four other continental countries will become the periphery, the European appendage of the United States. Their position is untenable, and we are beginning to realize it: it is becoming increasingly difficult for them to persist in the current impasse of their value system - a self-imposed and self-sustaining failure. But I want to emphasize this point: the moral degeneration or rebirth of Europe is not our business. For now, it is better to distance ourselves from this, taking advantage of the historical opportunity provided by the war waged by the West in Ukraine.
LE GRAND CONTINENT: It is obvious that we have a fundamental disagreement about who is responsible for the outbreak and continuation of Russian aggression against Ukraine. In what way do you think this war - which the Russian regime continues to call a "special military operation" to cover up the daily massacre it is carrying out - represents a historical opportunity?
S. KARAGANOV: This war was extremely useful to us. It is tragic that this outcome had to cost the lives of the best part of the population, but this war allowed us to quickly break with our last remnants of Eurocentrism and Westcentrism. By drawing fire, we are finally eliminating this consumer elite that has definitively left Russia, restoring our own identity, both in its traditional and renewed aspects, while at the same time turning decisively to the South and the East, where the external sources of our civilization and our future prosperity lie. If Europe reconnects with its culture, traditional values, as well as with more authoritarian forms of government, if it achieves a more effective decision-making regime without sliding towards fascism, I will be happy. Then it will be easier for us to engage in dialogue with our European neighbors, to restore those friendly relations with Russia that are currently simply forbidden to Europeans.
LE GRAND CONTINENT: Does Russia intend to consolidate an illiberal transatlantic axis - knowing that it currently seems to embody both polarities favorable to Russia, with Viktor Orbán in Hungary, and those that remain unfavorable to it, as with "PiS" in Poland?
S. KARAGANOV: It would indeed be desirable or beneficial for Russia for an "illiberal" transatlantic axis to emerge, because liberalism is obsolete - just as communism and Nazism have outlived their time before it. As for whether this axis will be pro-Russian or anti-Russian, we will see. I also see that the context in Europe is evolving. I do not think, for example, that Italy will continue its anti-Russian line, even in the medium term. I also hope that France will eventually abandon its current, truly misguided and suicidal position. The consequence of this line is that a significant part of Europe will unite around Greater Eurasia, as a space designed not so much to counter the power of the United States as to ensure the triumph of normal policies and political values. I sincerely hope that France will emerge from this pitiful moment in its history. As for Germany, I strongly fear that it will be unable to emerge from the crisis it has sunk into. If it succeeds, so much the better, but personally I prefer to exclude Germany from all my predictions, hoping that I am wrong.
LE GRAND CONTINENT: There are obviously people among the Russian population who do not share your "idea of a Russian dream". How do you see the governance - or even the possibility - of political strife in Russia today and in the future?
S. KARAGANOV: This concept is quite simple: it claims that there must be an ideology in our country capable of leading us forward, an ideology shared by the majority of the population and obligatory for the ruling elite. But neither I, nor, I hope, my colleagues and friends, intend to impose this ideology, which we call "idea-dream" or "Russian Code", on all citizens. We in no way want to return to the communist totalitarianism that intellectually crippled us and contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
On the other hand, I believe that we must transmit, from a very early age, a common core of specific values: the values inherent in this concept and which are now beginning to spread. Therefore, there is nothing different here from the way in which Russian children were once taught the divine commandments, and then the Code of the Builder of Communism. At the same time, I will categorically oppose any form of oppression of people who do not share this "idea - dream". If you don't adhere to it, but you pay your taxes, don't go against the interests of the state, and don't serve foreign governments, then fine, you are free to live as you wish.
However, if you aspire to be part of the Russian ruling class, then you must share these values and policies, promote this identity. Those who refuse to do so should be sent into a kind of semi-isolation. Whether they have a business or work in a factory, the main thing is to benefit society and take care of their families while living their lives. But they should not be part of the ruling class. And those who are part of it today, without sharing this vision, should be excluded.
LE GRAND CONTINENT: Reading and listening to you, I get the impression that war has already become the matrix of modern Russia. Do you think it will also be the key to its future? Has Russia entered an endless war?
S. KARAGANOV: At present, Russia is undergoing an accelerated process of spiritual, moral and intellectual revival, largely thanks to the war. It is a pity that this process has not been able to see the light of day in other ways. However, Russia is a country of warriors; it has never known how to live outside a state of war. Waging war is in the genes of Russians. Therefore, as soon as the threat became tangible, we united, overcame our divisions and gathered forces. It is tragic that we had to pay for this with blood - with the lives of our sons. But history is tragic.