An old maxim is that it is dangerous to be an object in a foreign game. And the game is old and with more players. Like in the Crimean War of 1853-1856.
Then and now, they say in Moscow, London is the king of organizing multi-level conflicts. Then and now, Ankara is part of this game, and whether Baku is an object or a player with pre-calculated dividends is an unanswered question at this stage. But it is a fact that the region, which is considered Russia's backyard, is being destabilized by creating a second front for the Russians on their southern border. Something like a second Ukrainian scenario, analysts from leading world media say. Old goals are to minimize Russia's influence in Transcaucasia and to ensure a direct connection to the Caspian Sea and the energy sources there. To form new alliances in which Moscow has no role. The connection with the Black Sea, where the appetites of players outside the coastal countries are also growing, is not hidden.
At first glance, it all started with an operation by Russian services against ethnic Azeris, most of whom have Russian passports, in Yekaterinburg. The charges are for criminal acts, including murders in previous years. A sharp reaction followed from Baku, where the operation was defined as a “premeditated act of ethnic violence”. The deaths, two in number, are referred to as “post-traumatic shock”, but the fight cannot be concealed. The media landscape has become a battlefield, and Baku has responded by arresting Russian journalists from ”Sputnik-Baku”, canceling participation of Russian representatives in joint events, preventing a planned visit by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Overchuk, and extensively showing videos of bloodied Russian detainees on its national TV programs. The violence is documented. The accusations are of drug trafficking and espionage in favor of Moscow. The attacks blur the lines between journalism and state propaganda, which further inflames bilateral tensions and undermines traditional diplomatic protocols. Bilateral relations are separate.
Appetite comes with eating, our ancestors say. Baku has definitely decided to take advantage of the moment of accumulated tension, from Russia's involvement in the war in Ukraine, to strengthen its leadership role in the so-called Turkic world and to realign its relations with Moscow. Ambitions to become a key energy center and a central geopolitical factor in the Transcaucasus and beyond are evident. However, it is difficult to hide the interventions of powers such as Turkey, Great Britain and Israel. They were also players in Azerbaijan's seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia. Deliveries of modern weapons, Turkish unmanned "bayraktars", and intelligence data are especially valuable in such conflicts.
The shooting down of a Russian helicopter and the killing of Russian peacekeepers in it, to everyone's surprise, was accepted by Moscow without calls for revenge. Just as the Kremlin is now reacting, through spokesman Peskov, to the negotiations held in Abu Dhabi between Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan and the leader in Baku, Aliyev, with "we welcome the negotiations". That's all. And these negotiations are being held without participation and consultations with Moscow, but are directly related to its strategic interests in the Far East and Central Asia. Moscow reacted with restraint even to Aliyev's loud calls for Putin to apologize personally and compensate the victims after the downing of an Azerbaijani plane over Chechnya some time ago. It was difficult to understand who was to blame and who was right, but they say that Moscow apologized. Was it a mistake or a deliberate act? Opinions about the compensation requested and received differ.
To arrive today at analyses that claim that the action in Yekaterinburg and the subsequent arrests in Baku of Russian citizens is not a matter of internal police activity. They say that it is a symptom of the accelerating disintegration of Moscow's control over its "near abroad". A way is being sought to change the regional balance of power in the region and Baku is clearly at the center of this transformation. It is said that Turkey and Britain are entering "Russia's backyard" and the goal is "to take down the bear". The world's Nostradamuses are guessing how Moscow will react - will it try to restore its control by violent means or will it adapt to the changing dynamics? Moreover, Trump has already announced that "important information" about Russia is expected in the coming days. He is again increasing supplies of requested air defense systems to Kiev, but the Russians do not seem to be particularly concerned about this.
They are continuing the war in Ukraine in the usual way - slowly, without the participation of the regular Russian army, without new mobilizations, without transferring troops from other borders of the Federation and definitely with an eye on the statements and actions of leaders around the world. They know that the threats of a new war, “in 3-5 years” have a grain of truth. Rearmament, modernization of weapons, raising the ceiling for military spending is not a groundless fantasy. A matter of exhaustion, which was applied back in the time of Brezhnev, for example. And the F-16 attacks from Romanian territory during the Russian bombing of Odessa are a signal from everywhere.
Against this background, tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan are escalating to an unprecedented level. Pashinyan's negotiations with Aliyev in Abu Dhabi with the open flattery of Ankara and London, without intermediaries and with pre-prepared agreements, should provoke the Russians. The fact that the Armenian constitution is being revised and Karabakh is excluded from it, that the Minsk Group is being dissolved, where Russia is excluded from the government, but Turkey and Britain remain, undoubtedly angers Moscow. But Russian commentators are content to point out that "Pashinyan is there to surrender in exchange for receiving guarantees for himself personally". He does this together with the ceding of the Zangezur corridor, in fact the entire Syunik, which allows the construction of a Turkish belt in the southern direction of Russia. This is undoubtedly direct access to the Caspian Sea and the North Caucasus. Incidentally, Hitler's dream too. Russian strategic projects such as North-South, where Baku also had a territorial role, are also being stopped.
The curious thing is that the Turkish media, which is particularly detailed about world events, is now keeping quiet and is content with only brief, like “Reuters”, information about the meeting in Abu Dhabi. Without a peek behind the scenes. And there remains the visit of the interim president in Damascus, Sharaa, to Baku, and the role of Tel Aviv in the events in Azerbaijan, and the connection with the war in Iran and the upcoming, inevitably, new events in this region. Moreover, Azerbaijan also hosted a visit by Sibiga, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, to Baku, and that the supply of weapons to Kiev continues and the hardly concealed dissatisfaction with the destroyed assets of the Azerbaijani company Socar /state oil company/, worth millions, during attacks by the Russians in and around Odessa and Nikolaev. Where experts and senior military officers from Great Britain are stationed.
There is no other way that Kiev's actions on Russian territory, especially in and around Crimea and the Black Sea, could be so successful. The Russians are convinced that the meeting in Abu Dhabi is something like the Munich Agreement of 1939, and Aliyev is a winner from the deal with Pashinyan. Who, not coincidentally, is currently increasing pressure on the opposition in Yerevan, arresting clergymen from the Armenian Apostolic Church and hoping for the promised help from France, London and especially Ankara. He was there just a few days ago for a meeting with Erdogan, and not much information about the talks has leaked out.
The fact is that the president of Iran, Pezeshkian, an ethnic Azeri, called Aliyev to ask if Iran was really attacked from Azeri territory during the war with Israel. In Iran, 16% of the population is Azeris and there are opinions that they sided with Tel Aviv in the attacks on the country of the ayatollahs. There, the Iranian Kurds were also on the side of Israel. Diasporas are always a breeding ground for use in internal struggles. A classic in the genre. And whether this has anything to do with conspiracy theories about the disintegration of Iran is a matter of the future. For now, Tehran is expelling Afghans, 4 million, from its territory. They are refugees after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Syria, Iran, Transcaucasia are undoubtedly part of a game that could rearrange borders and reformat the Middle East and even Transcaucasia.
The creation of a second front for Russia is not a game of chance. If it is a beginning, as they say in “Al Jazeera”, does this mean “destabilization of Kazakhstan with preparations for an explosion in the southeastern parts of the country”? A new Ukraine for the Russians? Or is Ankara's hidden reaction on the subject simply a fear that events will actually lead to the creation of a Kurdish state? After all, in Syria, even if Sharaa establishes diplomatic relations with Israel, as they want from Washington, the Syrian Kurds independently govern their territories in Assad's former country.
So far, Moscow has been calling for "drastic decisions" in connection with the events that Baku is creating. But there is one thing on its mind - it is dangerous to be a subject in someone else's game. Will Moscow give in? Or will Kiev be the first? After all, 300,000 Azeris work in Russia and run markets and markets there. What if they return them to Baku and stop the supply of fruits and vegetables from Azerbaijan? It is coming.