In 2000, Ehud Barak, Yasser Arafat and Bill Clinton failed to negotiate a two-state solution for Palestine and Israel. And it's even more complicated today, says a former Clinton adviser.
The UK has followed France's lead and announced that it will officially recognise a Palestinian state in September if Israel does not work towards a lasting truce. British Foreign Secretary David Lammy told the BBC that he hoped the decision would pave the way for a quicker ceasefire and the release of hostages held by Hamas. Britain also has conditions for Hamas in order to recognize Palestine - they must disarm and accept that they cannot participate in any way in the governance of the Gaza Strip.
The reaction of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not long in coming. He stated that the UK's decision rewards "Hamas' monstrous terrorism".
What consequences will this decision have for France and Britain?
According to Ardi Imsays, a law professor at Queen's University in Ontario, Canada, recognizing the Palestinian state would lead to "a complete change in bilateral relations with Israel". In an interview with the "New York Times" he says that any country that recognizes Palestine must review its agreements with Israel - this includes political and territorial, economic, social and civil relations.
According to the expert, in practice this will mean that civil society and the legislative branch in the country that decides to recognize Palestine will be put under additional pressure. This will mainly affect trade with Israel - for example, the import of agricultural products that come from the occupied West Bank.
A complex situation with many problems
However, the situation is very complex, former advisor to US President Bill Clinton on Middle East issues - Aaron David Miller told ZDF. He recalls that in 2000, Ehud Barak, Yasser Arafat and Bill Clinton failed to achieve success in negotiations to achieve a two-state solution - Israel and Palestine. "At that time, with Ehud Barak, Yasser Arafat and Bill Clinton, there were three serious and legitimate participants in the negotiations. And yet the differences could not be overcome", he says, adding that today the situation is even more complicated.
One of the problems is related to the lack of an adequate leader in the Palestinian territories. Mahmoud Abbas does not have the necessary legitimacy and support from the citizens, Miller explains to the German media. At the same time, in Israel, "the most right-wing government since the founding of the state, whose prime minister is under investigation for corruption," adds the expert. Aaron David Miller also does not rate highly the current US administration's attitude towards the Middle East - according to him, the president "has no strategy".
The division is too deep
The expert believes that the current division between Israelis and Palestinians is too deep - this is due to the trauma that the two peoples have inflicted on each other over the past 25 years. "Lack of trust, lack of security - the reality on the ground makes the idea of two states seem like a fantasy", Miller commented to ZDF.
Furthermore, according to Miller, now is the wrong time to plan conferences on the two-state solution. Instead, now is the time to think about ending the war, about the potential future governance in Gaza and the reconstruction of the enclave, the expert explained to the German media. "Such a conference is only useful if it can open up political horizons. But that's more realistic on another planet, not on Earth," Miller says.
Is there real interest from the international community?
The entire reaction of the international community - since October 7, 2023, when Hamas terrorists attacked Israel and killed over 1,200 people - has been weak and ineffective. According to Miller, other countries seem to have no interest in even trying to achieve anything regarding the war in the Middle East.
The expert is most critical of France, Britain and Germany - the three most important European countries for Israel. "They have done absolutely nothing, they have not put any pressure on Israel, none on Hamas, and certainly none on the US government," Bill Clinton's former adviser told ZDF.