The ultimatum that Donald Trump gave Russian President Vladimir Putin to achieve peace in Ukraine is expiring. And there is no indication that anyone in Moscow is taking this ultimatum seriously, noted the famous Russian writer Mikhail Zygar in an article for the "New York Times".
After more than three years of severe sanctions, one part of the Russian elite is apparently convinced that it can handle any trade penalty or embargo. And the other part seems to have no faith at all that Trump will carry out his threats.
Putin will not stop the war. And he will not negotiate with the US.
Zigar's sources in the Kremlin say that Putin has already made his decision: there is no point in negotiating with the United States, and the policy towards Washington should be hostile, not friendly.
Six months ago, when Donald Trump returned to the White House, there were signals in the opposite direction. To the point that American businessmen were openly talking to their colleagues in Moscow about potential partnerships and investments. This sentiment is clearly over. Putin has no intention of ending his aggressive war against Ukraine, and Trump cannot allow himself to be publicly humiliated.
And there is such a risk because instead of distancing himself from this war, the American president decided to subordinate it to his own ego. First, he promised to end it in 24 hours, and then in 100 days. He subsequently held several phone calls with Putin, attacked Zelensky and urged his NATO allies to increase their defense spending, which they did. In recent months, Trump has seen that Russia does not want peace, and Ukraine needs weapons and support. Thus, in a short period of time, the United States has gone from suspending military aid to Kiev to issuing nuclear threats to Russia, notes Nick Peyton Walsh on CNN's website.
The war in Ukraine is increasingly becoming "Trump's war"
Now Trump faces a crucial choice that he must make at the end of this week - should he impose sanctions on Russia's trading partners, which, however, will also harm Americans? Because imposing additional sanctions on Russia and the countries that trade with it - China, India and Turkey - will lead to a rise in oil prices and uncertainty on international markets.
Trump keeps repeating that this is not his war, but it is increasingly becoming his war, as a number of international observers have noted.
This is the defining conflict of his presidency and of the post-September 11 era, writes Nick Peyton Walsh. The outcome of it will determine both European security and Chinese belligerence in the next decade. China understands this and needs Russia to win. Europe also understands this and is arming itself so that Russia does not see potential in the weakness of the Community. It remains to be seen whether Trump is also aware of the significance of what is happening in Ukraine.
The Russian elite is disconnected from reality
The Russians are clearly not paying any particular attention to the threats and moves of the White House, writes Mikhail Zygar. Moscow is convinced that the West continues to fear Russian nuclear threats much more than the Russians fear hypothetical strikes supported by the West, the writer believes. According to him, the reason is simple - in the West, public opinion would never accept civilian casualties. In Russia, public opinion no longer matters. It has not existed in its real sense for years.
The Russian ruling elite is disconnected from reality, the famous writer writes. The situation in the country is far from stable. Over the summer, the country experienced an almost constant crisis in aviation, as flights were regularly disrupted by drone attacks. Large businesses are struggling with extremely high interest rates. Russia's central bank is forecasting weak economic growth and low investment levels, and the country is also facing a poor harvest.
Yet Russian leaders cling to the belief that nothing can harm them, because, they reason, the country has spent the last three years learning how to live in isolation. They may be right that Trump's bark may be worse than his bite. But drunk on propaganda, they may soon be in for a nasty surprise, warns Mikhail Zygar. At the end of the week, the US president may make good on his threat. And this time, he may not confirm the maxim that "Trump always chickens out".