The red light is on: Bulgaria is in the most severe category of erosion of democracy. The question is what to do so that the erosion does not develop to the extent that we observe in Turkey and other autocratic countries.
The attacks and arrests of opposition mayors in Bulgaria are an attempt on democracy in the country. The cases in Sofia and Varna are identical. The differences are in the specific combination of political orders and militia imagination. But even there, there is not much creativity: accusations of corruption based on the dubious testimonies of people who have fallen into dependence for one reason or another.
Therefore, the details of the staging are not worth discussing - the focus should be on the essence: an attempt to use police measures to decapitate the opposition and take away its positions of power in local government. With Ahmed Dogan's APS, the plan literally succeeded - the leader of this formation was removed (Dzhevdet Chakarov), and no one even disputes that this was done through institutional blackmail through his son. Now a trial is underway against the PP and their coalition with the DB. Kiril Petkov resigned, Blagomir Kotsev - mayor of Varna - is in custody on the basis of the badly fabricated testimony of a businesswoman close to GERB, the deputy mayor of Sofia from the PP is in custody for similar reasons.
In the same boat
The red light for the danger to democracy in our country is on, and its alarm siren has been wailing for several months. The August vacation days are passing and this howl can no longer be muffled by vacation plans. (The vacation is not an excuse for inaction, but it is still an explanation for the pause in defensive actions, which undoubtedly occurred.)
At the General Conference of the European Consortium for Political Studies (the most authoritative political science association on the continent) held in Thessaloniki, the main topics were two: rising illiberalism and the self-defense of democracy. Bulgaria, unfortunately, is an example of a general trend according to which democracy is eroding because of autocrats or majorities abusing their power. The conflict between central and local government, between illiberal majorities and the opposition is present in many places: Ekrem Imamoglu - the mayor of Istanbul - is in prison, there are tensions between the mayors of Budapest and Zagreb and the central government in these countries, Gavin Newsom and other Democratic governors or mayors of large cities in the US are in sharp conflict with the Trump administration.
But we must say that Bulgaria is in the most severe category of erosion of democracy - where the repressive apparatus of the countries is used against the opposition. The parallel between what is happening in Istanbul, Sofia and Varna is infinitely visible and clear. Therefore, Vasil Terziev's support for Imamoglu is an expression of accurate political judgment: they are in the same boat.
The interesting question is what needs to be done to prevent the erosion of democracy in our country from developing to the extent that we observe in Turkey and other autocratic countries. The question of the extent is actually very important, because even Orban, whom many accuse of autocratic tendencies, has not allowed himself to put his opponents in custody - as is happening in our country. Both the mayor of Budapest, Gergely Karachon, and the leader of the main opposition formation, Peter Magyar, are at large for now.
Sofia and Varna are not separate cases, but part of a general plan
A large part of the responsibility for preserving democracy in our country falls on the opposition itself and on the citizens. The opposition in the person of the PP-DB must be effective and coordinated and understand very well that Sofia and Varna are not separate cases, but part of a general plan. Activities in this sense should not be limited and reduced only to these two cities, but to see how the repressive logic is applied to representatives of local authorities throughout the country. Joint actions on this issue with the APS and mayors of the movement, who have not yet switched to the New Beginning, should not be ruled out. In general, it is necessary to seek joint actions between the national and local levels. It is also necessary to build structures and representation outside the capital and large cities. The current situation gives the opposition PP-DB the opportunity to demonstrate that it can be a strong defender of its representatives and sympathizers in the localities.
One of the main tasks of the opposition is actually to convince people how dangerous the use of violence against the opposition is. Part of the problem is that this process is not a one-time thing, but a slow and gradual one. In fact, there is also a lot of mimicry, hiding behind a false fight against corruption, which is conveniently sought where it is least found.
The international dimension is also important. Sofia and Varna are already there, but they need to be put on the map of the erosion of democracy along with Istanbul - this will make the picture clearer for the European public.
But the salvation and self-defense of Bulgarian democracy will not come from outside, but from within. International comparative studies show that the center-right parties have the greatest responsibility for the collapse or salvation of democracy. In our case, this means that if GERB continues to be an obedient and unquestioning follower of formations with strong autocratic tendencies such as the New Beginning, democracy in Bulgaria will be exposed to enormous pressure. This is not about driving a wedge between Boyko Borisov and Delyan Peevski - there is no room for a wedge between the two, as is well known.
The danger is not hypothetical, but quite real
However, there are many pro-democratic and pro-European voters in GERB who cannot help but see the dangerous trend associated with the arrests of opposition figures. These voters cannot help but realize that the path their leader is leading them is Erdogan-type autocracy. And the danger is not distant and hypothetical, as it has been so far, but quite real.
Moreover: GERB's pro-European voters cannot help but have noticed that joint actions by pro-European parties in our country are mandatory for the country's success. On the issue of the euro, for example, the interaction between GERB and PP-DB has led to a significant turn in public opinion in recent months in favor of the common European currency. This process is not irreversible and is not complete - that is why the interaction between the pro-European parties on this issue is absolutely mandatory. But this interaction is torpedoed by the blind complicity of Borisov and Peevski. And here it is not about whether they are autonomous from each other or not, but about the fact that their pairing also drags along an authoritarian path voters with a democratic and European attitude.
A hot political autumn is coming. The main issue in it will be the protection of Bulgarian democracy. And it is good for citizens and voters to think about this issue, and not about saving the careers of leaders who should have been beyond salvation long ago.
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the State News Agency as a whole.