In recent months, the Turkish public has become familiar with a legal term that could determine the fate of the largest opposition party. It is Mutlak Butlan and means "absolute nullity". That is exactly what could happen on September 15, when the trial against the Republican People's Party (CHP) ends.
On that date, judges in the capital Ankara may declare the 38th party congress of the CHP invalid. If this happens, the entire reformist party leadership will lose its legitimacy, and Turkey's oldest party, which mobilized millions of people for protests after the arrest of its presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu in March, will fall into complete chaos.
What is behind this process?
After the AKP's bitter loss in Turkey's presidential election in May 2023, calls for a leadership change emerged within the party. Most notably, the self-confident mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu, who defeated Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's candidate in the Bosphorus metropolis three times, has been pushing his party to carry out reforms. At the party congress in November 2023, he supported the current leader Özgür Özel, who prevailed over long-time chairman Kemal Kalıçdaroğlu. The entire party leadership was then replaced.
The old bureaucrat Kalıçdaroğlu led the party for almost 14 years and during that time lost every election to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Observers confirm that the 76-year-old politician lacks charisma and is not close to the people, which is why he is considered "Erdogan's favorite rival" in the country.
But the traditionally nationalist wing did not accept defeat: Kalıçdaroğlu's people filed a complaint against the election procedure of the party congress in question, which they said was illegal. They also accused the reformist wing of Özel and İmamoğlu of buying the votes of delegates. The Turkish prosecutor's office then opened an investigation.
To prevent a negative development, the AKP held an extraordinary party conference in April, at which the new leadership was confirmed by a large majority. But the old wing has filed a complaint again.
Meanwhile, the pro-government press is also trying to pit the two sides against each other. It claims that the old chairman and his wing have fallen victim to internal intrigues within the party.
The result is a fierce showdown, dividing supporters into two camps, who exchange heavy accusations and insults.
In the past week, things have escalated significantly: the court removed the entire reformist board of directors in the AKP stronghold of Istanbul and appointed forced governors in their place - people from the old guard, hostile to the reformists around Özel and İmamoğlu. The reason for this measure was cited as irregularities during the party congress in the Istanbul province in 2023, at which the reformist wing managed to defeat the traditionalists. Their success paved the way for Imamoglu, Erdogan's most promising rival, to run for president.
Erdogan's strategy?
Berk Esen, a political scientist at Sabanci University in Istanbul, definitely sees a political strategy behind these events. In an interview with DW, he said that President Erdogan is trying to weaken and divide the largest opposition party, which is gaining popularity and opposing the increasing repression in the country. Furthermore, Esen recalls that the Turkish president has already used this method in the past against three opposition parties and has succeeded each time.
According to Esen, Erdogan is thus hindering the processes of reform and rejuvenation of the opposition in order to prevent it from attracting new voters. He prefers old, ossified, distant from the people and unsuccessful opposition leaders as his rivals. If the court rules against the young and reformist leadership of the HDP on Monday, Erdogan will win again, the expert adds.
Five possible scenarios
Experts believe that the Turkish judiciary is not independent and speculate on several scenarios:
Scenario 1: No problem. If the court rules in favor of the current leadership, the HDP could continue on its current course under the leadership of Özgür Özel. However, after the removal of the party leadership in Istanbul, such a decision is becoming increasingly unlikely. Since a large part of the delegates are from there, the court could declare the election of the current party leadership at the national party congress invalid.
Scenario 2: The old guard returns. If the judges rule against the current leadership, the entire party leadership and party bodies will lose their legitimacy. In this case, the old chairman could take over the party. This could make the chaos in this party even greater, since he is unlikely to gain the support of the party base, Essen believes. In fact, the old leadership seems to want to regain control in order to prevent the appointment of an external manager.
Scenario 3: The party is taken over by a forced manager. Essen, however, is convinced that a forced manager would have no chance in the party. The resistance against him within the party would be great.
Scenario 4: Reformers found a new party. The reformist wing could leave the Republican People's Party and found a new party. In the country's recent history, however, such parties have never reached the strength of the parent party, and the parties from which the new formations originate are so weakened that they become toothless tigers, the Turkish political scientist also says.
Scenario 5: The announcement of the verdict is postponed. As a last resort, postponing the court's ruling is being considered in order to continue the division in the AKP, to present the party as an incapable alternative. The goal is to impress upon the public that they are incapable: How will they govern the country when they cannot handle their own party?
What could be the possible consequences?
The future of the largest opposition party is at stake. Since the arrest of its presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu, it has organized large rallies twice a week and mobilized millions of people, even in the strongholds of the ruling AKP party. If the court decides that the election of the current party leadership was illegal, the Republican People's Party could fall into political insignificance, because it will be busy with itself and its own chaos for a long time. This also applies to its most popular representative and most promising candidate in the next presidential elections, Ekrem Imamoglu, because he will no longer have a strong opposition party behind him. The outcome is expected on Monday, September 15.