The first round of the elections for the leader of the Turkish Cypriot community will be held on October 19 in the northern part of the island.
The participants in the presidential elections of the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus are the current leader of the Turkish Cypriots Ersin Tatar, who is officially running as an independent candidate, but is supported by the ruling coalition of political forces led by the National Unity Party, the leader of the opposition and head of the Republican Turkish Party Tufan Erhurma, the candidate of the Cypriot Socialist Party Osman Zorba; and five other independent candidates.
The official number of candidates reaches eight, but the real race for victory will be between only two of them – Tatar and Erhurman, each of whom, according to opinion polls, enjoys over 40% support. Moreover, none of the other candidates received even 1% of the vote in these polls, which means that their subsequent unification with one or the other favorite will have little impact on the future balance of power.
The probability that the election result will be decided in the first round is extremely low. The runoff is scheduled for October 26, with the winner to be determined by a simple majority.
The election of the Turkish Cypriot leader for the next five years is of great importance for the prospects for a settlement of the Cyprus issue and is essentially an unofficial referendum on the future political model of Cyprus, as the two leading contenders have diametrically opposed views on the issue.
Tatar, supported by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and families of Turkish immigrants in Cyprus, advocates the recognition of two separate states on the island, despite the fact that his party is a self-proclaimed formation recognized internationally only by Ankara.
Erhürman, supported by the majority of local Turkish Cypriots, advocates the traditional idea of forming a bizonal and bicommunal federation on the island, as envisaged in UN Security Council resolutions. While Tatar consistently calls Turkey “homeland” and claims that Cyprus is home to two distinct peoples - Greeks and Turks - Erhürman sees Cyprus itself as his homeland, calling the island's population Cypriots, divided into Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities respectively.