Is it possible that the US is trying to overthrow Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro? Yes, judging by a recent interview published in Vanity Fair. In it, Susie Wiles, the chief of staff of US President Donald Trump, said that the US president will continue to blow up boats "until Maduro asks for mercy".
For months, the US has been attacking Venezuelan vessels in the Caribbean Sea, which are allegedly transporting drugs. There have been casualties in these attacks. At first, it seemed that these US actions were aimed at combating illegal drug trafficking. Trump has long sought to cut off the path of drug traffickers to the United States.
This week, he declared the painkiller fentanyl a weapon of mass destruction. The synthetic opioid is also often used as a narcotic. According to the US Department of Health, about 48,000 people in the US died last year as a result of painkiller abuse.
Does the US want to economically exhaust Venezuela?
But is it really just about drugs? Experts suspect that the real goal is to get their hands on Venezuela's resources, mainly oil and some rare earth elements. Trump has announced a naval blockade against "sanctioned" oil tankers arriving in or leaving Venezuela.
This, together with what Trump's chief of staff said in the interview, reinforces suspicions that the US campaign is centered on Nicolás Maduro from power. Does Trump want to remove him?
"I don't think that was the goal when they [the second Trump administration] came to power in January of this year," says Paul Hare. The retired British diplomat and former ambassador is now director of the Center for Latin American Studies at Boston University. "The idea was to make a deal with Maduro on deportations, maybe get some oil concessions for the Americans and make some kind of trade agreement that would allow him [Maduro] to stay in power," he adds.
How US pressure on Venezuela could weaken Cuba
However, removing Maduro from power would be in line with Trump's second-term national security strategy, which sees the US refocusing its sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere – a region that encompasses America and its periphery, including Western Europe.
Jesús Renzullo, a Latin American expert at the German Institute for Global and Regional Studies, sees another motive behind the US government's actions. According to him, Foreign Minister Marco Rubio - a well-known “hawk” in foreign policy and a staunch opponent of the Maduro regime - hopes to increase pressure on Cuba.
The Cuban government is the subject of constant international criticism for serious shortcomings in the field of human rights and the rule of law. The socialist island country in the Caribbean Sea is in a severe economic crisis and relies mainly on oil supplies from Venezuela.
"Venezuela is the only trump card that Cuba can count on in the region," Renzullo says. He believes that if the regime in Caracas falls, it will mean serious restrictions and even more economic problems for Cuba.
But in order for there to be a regime change in Venezuela, the US must drastically increase its pressure - a naval blockade alone will not be enough, the political observer believes. He recalls that Caracas has already been subjected to enormous pressure and harsh sanctions (in 2019), but the regime survived.
Former Ambassador Paul Hare does not currently see a strategy by the Trump administration for intervention in Latin America - with the exception of the Maduro regime. "I do not believe that we will witness aggression against other countries" in the region, says Hare. He believes the Trump administration is concerned that Maduro is in power illegally.
To make Trump history?
The Trump administration, and Secretary of State Rubio in particular, is supporting the Venezuelan opposition, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado, who has already spoken out in favor of American intervention in the Caribbean. For Trump, however, the issue is not so much about establishing democracy in Venezuela, as may have been the goal of other American presidents, but rather about eliminating a personal rival.
“It's not about oil,“ says Jim Marquardt, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel who now heads the Johns Hopkins University School of International Studies. “And it's not about democracy, at least that's how I would see it in the case of the Trump administration.”
This may come as a bit of a surprise, as Trump recognized democratic opposition leader Juan Guaido as Venezuela's rightful president in 2019. But Maduro has remained in power and has resisted all attempts to remove him from office - even after the 2024 elections, which independent observers say his opponents won.
For Trump, the issue is about his own political legacy, not about democracy in Venezuela. "Trump is primarily interested in his political legacy," the observer says.
"He [Trump] tried to solve the problems in the Gaza Strip, he worked very hard to start a peace process between Ukraine and Russia, and Venezuela is a problem that is a little closer to him and, I would add, probably easier to solve," Marquardt points out.
Since his re-election, Trump has been losing popularity in the polls - among Latin American immigrants who are American citizens, among others. And they represent a significant electoral bloc in Trump's stronghold of Florida and helped him return to power in the White House.
"This is an easy way to specifically appeal to this diaspora, which provides a large number of votes in Florida. So part of it is about appeasing that constituency," Jim Marquardt points out.
Author: Matthew Ward Ages