Politico: Hungary could be kicked out of the EU if Viktor Orban wins the elections

The European Union is developing a plan that provides for 5 strategies for action in the event of the victory of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the parliamentary elections, in order to counteract the destabilization of the bloc's work by him. Possible measures include changing the order of voting in the EU, financial sanctions, suspension of voting rights, as well as the country's expulsion from the union. A Politico source defines this step as “unrealistic, but a good idea“, writes Focus.

The European Union is developing an emergency action plan to prevent the destabilization of the bloc's work by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, in the event that he wins the parliamentary elections in the country, scheduled for April 12. This is what the Brussels publication writes about, citing European diplomats.

According to the publication, the most dramatic and at the same time the most unrealistic option involves the exclusion of Hungary from the European Union.

"So far, no country has been excluded from the EU and this topic remains taboo", the media outlet notes.

One of the publication's sources suggests that the bloc could exclude Hungary from its membership by rethinking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which Britain triggered upon "Brexit", or by using other legal workarounds. He calls this step "unrealistic, but a good idea". The source added that this hypothetical scenario was already discussed a few years ago and is now back on the agenda.

Another diplomat noted that exclusion from the EU is not provided for in the treaties.

"I don't see how this would be in our interest. What would Hungary do in such a case? It would fall into Russia's sphere of influence“, he explained.

Among other possible measures to influence Budapest, the EU is also considering changing the EU's voting system.

"One option is to expand the use of qualified majority voting, which normally requires 55% of member states, representing 65% of the EU's population, to vote “in favour“ in sensitive areas where consensus is currently needed, such as foreign policy and elements of the EU's long-term budget,“ the media outlet writes.

Three diplomats in an interview with the publication support this decision. One of them also emphasizes that in general the EU is increasingly ready to look for ways to increase the efficiency of the decision-making process through wider use of the qualified majority principle.

Another option provides for more aggressive enforcement measures against Budapest, for example blocking payments from the EU budget. European Council President António Costa previously stated that Orbán's refusal to grant a loan to Ukraine violates Article 4(3) of the Treaty on European Union, according to which the bloc's member states are obliged to provide “sincere cooperation“. However, Koštó did not take any action after that.

According to one of the diplomats, the application of this article to Hungary is possible: any violation could lead to a lawsuit for violation of antitrust law. If the court rules in favor of the European Commission, this will lead to financial sanctions. Moreover, Budapest has already stated that it will veto any EU steps related to blocking funding, if necessary.

Another option provides for the suspension of Budapest's voting rights in case of violation of the organization's values. Earlier, the media repeatedly wrote about such a scenario. The fifth option provides for the wider use of flexible formats - from the creation of informal "coalitions of the willing" within the EU to the expansion of cooperation between small groups of countries within the framework of "multi-speed Europe". Similar structures, according to sources in the Brussels media, "already exist to some extent, especially in the context of security issues when the British are involved".