The US can achieve regime change in Iran not through direct pressure, but through “strategic patience“, writes an unnamed former CIA officer who worked in the Middle East, in an article for the Financial Times.
According to the expert, US and Israeli strikes have already caused significant damage to Iran's military infrastructure, but this has not led to political change. “Military success should not be confused with political transformation“, notes the former CIA officer. Despite the losses, the key mechanisms for maintaining power in the country remain functional, he explained.
The former CIA officer emphasizes that Washington maintains the illusion that it is possible to quickly achieve regime change in Tehran through pressure. However, as the article notes, “political culture cannot be transformed by airstrikes, nor can human nature be changed by a conference room in Washington“. At the same time, US allies in the Persian Gulf fear a prolonged conflict that could lead to increased threats from Iran, disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and a decline in the region's investment attractiveness.
He notes that the Islamic Republic does not have a consolidated opposition capable of taking control of the country, and historical experience shows that covert operations can contribute to the overthrow of a regime, but do not guarantee the formation of a stable political system. In these circumstances, he believes, the US should avoid getting involved in a large-scale regime change campaign and focus on gradually weakening Iran's potential.
“A more prudent course is strategic patience: to "continue to weaken the regime's lethal capabilities for a while, but reduce the intensity of the bombing at the earliest opportunity to avoid exacerbating public sentiment and squandering goodwill," he noted.
Above all, he said, Washington should continue to consult closely with its Gulf allies, who will have to deal with the fallout from this conflict, he concluded.