The conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea dates back to the 1950s, when the two countries were united by the UN in a federation. In 1993, Eritrea, which until then provided the rulers in Addis Ababa with access to the Red Sea, declared independence, and tensions have not subsided since then.
Ethiopia wants access to the Red Sea
However, in recent months it has threatened to escalate into open military conflict, and recently Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed used a military parade to demonstrate strength, ARD reports. Ahmed is trying to convince his compatriots of the need for war with the neighboring country, because, in his opinion, his country must gain access to the sea.
Ethiopia (with a population of 130 million) is the most populous landlocked country in the world. "The Red Sea and Ethiopia cannot be separated", says the prime minister. The government in Asmara fears an Ethiopian invasion. That is why Eritrea is responding by mobilizing the population. "The Red Sea is ours", says a propaganda film broadcast on state television.
Neighboring countries and countries from the Middle East may be involved
The conflict, which began after Eritrea seceded in 1993, has been going on for decades, but in 2018, the newly elected Prime Minister Ahmed encouraged the normalization of relations with the neighboring country and received the Nobel Peace Prize. Now, however, a new war could break out in the Horn of Africa, involving neighboring countries as well as the Persian Gulf countries.
Foreign interests could also be behind the war, explains journalist Tsedale Lema from the Ethiopian newspaper "Addis Standard". "The Sudanese army is on Eritrea's side. The RSF militias support Abiy Ahmed. Egypt, Somalia and other countries also support Eritrea. There is also serious support from the United Arab Emirates for the Ethiopian army," she added to ARD.
The last military conflict in the region was four years ago. Then Addis Ababa started a war against the Tigray region, but with the support of Eritrea. About 800,000 people have still been displaced by the fighting.
A powder keg
And in the current situation, there are fears that internal clashes could break out in Ethiopia. The rulers in Asmara are accused of financing rebels in neighboring Ethiopia. Eritrea denies the accusations, but in regions like Tigray, locals are preparing for a new conflict.
"I don't know if it will definitely come to war. But from what I hear, I think it is inevitable. We are on the verge of a catastrophe. I don't know what to do. I can no longer do my work in the fields properly. I can't take good care of my family. "We don't want war at all," Ethiopian Femer Dage Meresa told ARD.
Officially, the governments of both countries do not want war, but at the moment any provocation can escalate into open conflict, and the Horn of Africa is increasingly resembling a powder keg, the German public media concludes.
Naveena Kotoor (ARD)