The moment is approaching in the war in Ukraine when Vladimir Putin must make a move, writes on Facebook the journalist from De Re Militari Ruslan Trad.
Ukrainian forces are constantly intensifying their strikes with long-range drones, and attacks on Russian infantry at the front are leading to a drop in the level of recruitment lower than combat losses. Strikes in operational depth are also increasing, which makes conducting front-line operations even more difficult.
According to various analysts, Putin has four main options for further action.
The first option is the conclusion of a real ceasefire. In this way, the Russian forces will effectively give up any claims to victory. Moreover, since the Russians have declared a complete annexation of four regions of Ukraine, giving them up, according to formal legal logic, will mean that they have ended the war by ceding "their" territory to Ukraine.
Such a decision will allow plans to be launched to save the Russian economy. The risks to the regime's sustainability are medium: although many angry veterans will appear, the majority of the population is tired of the war and will welcome a ceasefire.
The second option is to abandon the offensive and freeze the front line while maintaining combat operations and shelling of the rear areas. It is possible to additionally introduce a ban on Ukrainians striking Russian oil refineries (something that will also be welcomed by the West), and for the Russians - a ban on strikes on Ukrainian energy. This is the most difficult option for Ukraine, since the current strategy involves both strikes on oil refineries and the destruction of a large number of Russian military personnel in order to prevent the Russians from building up reserves.
On the other hand, this option is risky for the Russian economy, since it still requires significant resources, but it is good for the stability of the government regime. An endless war could also be dangerous for the stability of Ukraine.
The third option is a full-scale mobilization in the Russian Federation. On the one hand, it is relatively easy to carry out, and on the other - this is a very risky option. However, even the attraction of 300-500 thousand additional soldiers will not solve the remaining Russian problems in the military sphere. The chances of winning the war under this option remain low, the chances of saving the economy - zero, and the risks for the regime - highest.
The fourth option is escalation and most likely an attack on the Baltic states. The Russians have enough resources for a limited invasion with a force of a few divisions. The goal of such an invasion is either to force the Europeans to throw all resources into defending NATO countries, abandoning Ukraine, or to frighten the Europeans to the point that they will agree to any demands regarding Ukraine. This option carries very high risks for the Russian regime if the Europeans decide to increase support for Ukraine even more in response, but also great gains if the Europeans get scared and back down. In any case, the EU had better prepare for the possibility of such a scenario. The forecasts for the implementation of this scenario are becoming increasingly alarming: from 2029 to the end of last year to 2027.
Western military analysts believe that the most profitable option for the Russian forces would be to stop the offensive, maintaining a limited war. Putin is convinced of his sacred mission to "restore the greatness of Russia", which implies the mandatory conquest of Ukraine. Most likely, Russian generals will convince Putin that an additional wave of mobilization will be able to solve the problem of breaking through the front. This option is the most obvious in Russian logic, but also the riskiest for them.