The latest Ukrainian attack on the Moscow Oil Refinery (MRPZ) was carried out according to a familiar scheme, used in previous strikes against large Russian energy infrastructure facilities, military analysts believe.
According to them, the attacks usually begin with the so-called "reconnaissance with combat" - the use of a large number of decoy drones and distracting unmanned aerial vehicles. The goal is not to immediately destroy the object, but to gather information about the location of air defenses, launchers, and vulnerable areas in the defense.
After this first stage, the main strike usually follows, in which the intensity of the attack increases significantly.
Zelensky: If Ukraine burns, Moscow will burn too
Today's strike is a response to the attack on the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced on June 18 that Russian air defenses had shot down nearly 200 Ukrainian drones. Russian authorities have not released figures on how many drones have reached their targets, but analysts and video footage from the scene suggest that between 15 and 20 drones may have overcome air defenses.
Experts note that the effectiveness of air defense in the Moscow region against small air targets can be estimated at around 90 percent, which they say is comparable to the results of Ukrainian air defense against Russian "Geran" drones.
16 injured in massive Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow
It is unclear what damage was caused to civilian infrastructure
At the same time, analysts raise questions about the effectiveness of systems for the immediate protection of strategic objects. Numerous videos from Moscow show intense small arms fire and anti-aircraft missile launches that fail to hit their targets.
Experts say that hitting a small drone moving at a speed of about 200 kilometers per hour is extremely difficult even at distances of a few hundred meters, and at longer distances it is practically impossible with ordinary small arms.
The reasons for the shortcomings of modern anti-aircraft missile systems remain a subject of debate. Possible explanations include limitations in guidance systems, the use of anti-aircraft missiles at extremely short distances, or other technical factors.
According to experts, the recent strikes on the Moscow Oil Refinery confirm two main trends in drone warfare. The first is that no existing air defense system can guarantee complete protection against a massive attack by modern unmanned aerial vehicles. The second is that last-line defense systems have even more limited capabilities, and attempts to intercept drones just before a strike could result in additional damage on the ground from falling debris or stray missiles.
The strike on the MNPZ is the second against the facility this week and is part of the largest drone attack on the Moscow region in recent years. According to Russian authorities, 16 people were injured in the attack.