For Donald Trump, cryptocurrencies are a good investment - last year the US president earned over one billion euros from transactions in this area, it became clear recently from his tax return. However, many investors have recorded losses, and billions have evaporated in crypto funds, writes ARD.
In two months, about $ 8.5 billion has been withdrawn from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (EFTs) in the US, according to data from the "Glassnode" platform. Demand for these products in the US has been declining since September.
The mood of the crypto market as a whole has turned around, believes Paula Protzen from ARD. The result is that the price of Bitcoin, the oldest and most famous digital currency, has halved since October.
Geopolitics also affects the crypto market
According to experts, many factors have had an impact. First of all, the war between Iran and the United States is also having an impact on this sector.
"Of course, the Strait of Hormuz also affects the price of Bitcoin," financial expert Adrian Fritz told ARD. The closure of the important sea route and the protracted negotiations stimulated inflation and stifled hopes for a drop in interest rates. It would have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies, as risky assets would be more sought after.
In addition, it can be seen that cryptocurrencies have recently become more closely linked to stock markets - especially the two major US stock indexes Nasdaq and S&P 500, stock market specialist Steen Vander Straten told ARD. It is easier for institutional investors to invest in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, he added.
Experts are observing that investors are withdrawing capital from crypto funds to companies dealing with technology and especially artificial intelligence. Another reason, as the German public media points out, is that for the first time in ten years, one of the most reliable crypto investors has sold some of its holdings - this is Strategy, which holds five percent of all bitcoins and has gone from being a net buyer to a net seller.
Scenarios for Bitcoin dominance have not come true
"Bitcoin is currently struggling with the fact that its narratives have run out," says Professor Co-Pierre Georges of the Frankfurt School of Finance. The supposed role of a global payment instrument has not yet been justified. In 2021, El Salvador became the first country to introduce it as an official means of payment, but in 2025 this decision was withdrawn.
Other assurances, such as that Bitcoin was "digital gold" - i.e. could be used as a means of security - have not proven themselves so far.
In any case, bitcoin currently remains far below the overly high expectations. At the end of 2025, the investment bank "Goldman Sachs" still believed that bitcoin could reach a value of $150,000 this year, ARD recalls. However, it currently amounts to only a third of that amount. Experts predict that its price will still recover - the bitcoin rate follows a four-year rhythm and declines and increases alternate.
Europe has imposed serious regulation
The EU regulatory directive - MiCA - is designed to create a common legal framework for crypto service providers in the Community. Brussels wants to impose specific transparency requirements, supervisory guarantees and governance requirements. The directive has been in force for 1.5 years, but has been mandatory since July 1, i.e. traders now need a license to be able to carry out transactions with cryptocurrencies in Europe.
However, as the ARD points out, out of 1,200 market participants, only 244 have such a license. Among them are two of the largest crypto exchanges in the world - Binance and Upbit. Binance has already announced that it will continue to fight for a license. However, this could take from half a year to a year, according to Vander Straten.
Currently, platforms without a license must cease trading in Europe, but a sale or transfer to other providers remains possible. Vander Straten suggests that this will redirect many customers to other platforms, and then it will be difficult for Binance to win back European users.
Author: Paula Protzen ARD