Adam Lipowski: NATO does not want a decisive victory for Ukraine

NATO's strategy for the war in Ukraine is to ensure that neither Kiev , nor will Moscow achieve a decisive victory. This opinion was expressed in an author's article for the publication Rzeczpospolita by Adam Lipowski, a professor at the Institute of Economic Sciences of the Polish Academy of Sciences, quoted by FOCUS.

The West has not yet provided Kiev with enough weapons for Ukrainians to finally push back Russian troops and restore their country's territorial integrity to its 1991 borders. In addition, Western sanctions have also turned out to be "full of holes", the author notes. This position of the West "actually tolerates Russia's war crimes in Ukraine”, writes Lipovsky.

The author gives four reasons for the West's position:

The military unpreparedness of the NATO countries to even indirectly oppose an aggression of this scale;

Western democratic governments must take into account the pacifist sentiments of a significant part of their voters, the anti-Ukrainian sentiments of some parties included in the ruling coalitions should also be taken into account;

The NATO charter provides for maximum support only for member countries, and Ukraine does not meet this condition.

At the same time, the analyst gives his fourth reason why the West does not want to decisively guarantee the victory of Ukraine. Lipovski believes that this reason is perhaps the main one.

"This reason is of a geopolitical nature because it is related to possible consequences. These consequences could be: the fall of Putin's regime and its replacement by an even more unpredictable and therefore more dangerous dictator, or the collapse of his state structure, which would throw Russia into chaos. In both cases, this could create a threat of the Russian nuclear arsenal being taken over by irresponsible forces with difficult-to-predict negative consequences, including the risk of an outbreak of a global conflict, the analyst wrote.

Lipowski notes that the occurrence of these consequences is hardly inevitable, but it is likely. And it is precisely these consequences that the West is trying to avoid.

"Logically, the strategy of these countries in this case is based on the officially unspoken axiom that preventing the destruction of the Russian state structure has a higher geopolitical priority than returning Ukraine to the borders of 2014," the analyst wrote.

At the same time, according to Lipovsky, the West also cannot allow a complete victory for Russia, because this would create a direct military threat to NATO. Therefore, the current strategy of the Alliance countries inevitably leads to a prolongation of the war with a gradual weakening of both sides.

"So the common strategy of the NATO countries is clearly visible in both options for ending the war, in my opinion, it is about not allowing victory for both Russia and (unfortunately) Ukraine. Each of these two options represents a geopolitical threat”, writes the analyst.

According to him, the West is trying to ensure that Russia and Ukraine will eventually reach a truce according to the "Korean scenario”.