The counter-offensive of Ukrainian forces on Russian territory in the Kursk region has been largely successful in the short term, but in the long term it will not turn the tide of the war, writes Foreign Policy.
Is Ukraine's surprise counteroffensive against Russia a critical turning point in the war, a meaningless spectacle or a strategic mistake by Kiev? The operation was largely successful in the short term, but what happens in the long term is important.
These successes on the battlefield are unlikely to affect the outcome of the war, experts believe. The Kursk operation could lead to greater losses on the Ukrainian side than on the Russian side, and this is not a ratio that Ukraine can afford. It would be a big mistake to conclude that the recent successes on the Kursk front mean additional help from the West and that they will allow Ukraine to regain Donbas or Crimea.
Ukraine's short-term success is obvious – the invasion provided a much-needed boost to Ukrainian morale and helped dispel fears that Kiev was trapped and losing the war. The Kursk operation revealed serious gaps in Russian intelligence and unnerved Vladimir Putin.
If we look at the bigger picture, however, the math is not in Kiev's favor. According to various estimates, the Ukrainian army occupied about 1,000 square kilometers of Russian land and forced 200,000 Russians to evacuate. This represents only 0.0064% of the total area of Russia and 0.138% of its population. By comparison, Russia now controls roughly 20 percent of Ukraine's territory, and the war has reportedly forced nearly 35 percent of Ukraine's population from their homes.
Even if Kiev manages to hold on to the territory it recently conquered, it will not be a significant bargaining chip. The fate of Ukraine will be determined by what happens in Ukraine, not by the Kursk operation.
However, the Kursk operation exposed two important weaknesses of Russia. First and foremost is Russia's low military effectiveness. Given Russia's repeated mistakes in this war, and given that even its successes have come at a slow pace, it is unlikely that anyone still believes that Russia poses a serious military threat to the rest of Europe. Second, Kiev's successful invasion of Russia suggests that existing red lines and other restrictions on Ukrainian operations should be lifted and the West should allow Ukraine to fight Russia by any means necessary.
Ukraine's recent military success can also be seen as an opportunity to start serious ceasefire negotiations, not as “a reason to continue a costly war that Ukraine can survive but is unlikely to win” .