On February 23, US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff defined the Istanbul Protocols from early 2022 as “guidelines“ for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. According to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an agreement based on these protocols would constitute a document of Ukraine's surrender, News.bg reports.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and The New York Times (NYT) reported that they have several versions of draft agreements from the Ukrainian-Russian peace talks in Istanbul in March and April 2022. According to them, the two sides initially agreed that Ukraine would abandon its aspirations for NATO membership and become a “permanently neutral state that does not participate in military blocs“.
The draft agreements provided for a ban on Ukraine receiving foreign weapons or admitting foreign military personnel. In addition, Russia insisted that the Ukrainian army be limited to 85,000 soldiers, 342 tanks and 519 artillery systems, and Ukrainian missiles - to a range of 40 km, which would allow Russian forces to deploy strategic military facilities near the border without the risk of Ukrainian strikes.
According to the draft agreements, the US, UK, China, France and Russia are listed as guarantors of the agreement, with Moscow also insisting on the inclusion of Belarus. The guarantor states were to "terminate international treaties and agreements incompatible with Ukraine's permanent neutrality," including those for military assistance.
ISW analysts point out that such a peace agreement is unlikely to be accepted by Ukraine, as it effectively represents a complete capitulation to Russia's long-term military goals. President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to state his commitment to preserving democracy in the country and to a fair settlement of the conflict.
On February 23, Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), as Special Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries.
Meanwhile, on the night of February 22-23, Russian forces carried out a record number of drone strikes against Ukraine, days before the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion on February 24.
Russia is increasingly relying on military support from Iran and North Korea, and Russian forces continue to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war in violation of international law.
In the fighting, Ukrainian forces have made progress near Toretsk, while Russian troops are advancing in the areas of Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Velika Novosilka. At the same time, the Kremlin continues to invest in increasing military production in an attempt to maintain its military operations in Ukraine.