Benjamin Netanyahu said it directly: "Of course" that the Israeli operation "can overthrow the Iranian regime", because the government in Tehran is "very weak", the Israeli prime minister commented in an interview with the American "Fox News".
Donald Trump is sending conflicting signals: "We know exactly where the so-called "supreme leader" is hiding," he announced on his social network Truth Social. "He is an easy target, but he is safe there. We will not kill him, at least not for now," the US president wrote.
Yet it is not clear how long this "for now" will last. The longer the conflict between Israel and Iran continues, the greater the temptation for Israel and the US to get rid of not only the Iranian nuclear program, but also the Islamic theocracy.
Attempt at "regime change" could have unpredictable consequences
"Whether regime change can even happen from the outside is highly debatable," says Eckart Wörtz, director of the Hamburg Institute for Middle East Studies GIGA. "Whether this will bring the desired result, if it happens at all, is another matter entirely", the expert adds.
There is a hypothesis that the Revolutionary Guard could take power and be even more aggressive towards the outside world than it is at the moment. Or the country could practically fall apart, as happened with Iraq after the US invasion or with Libya after the NATO strikes in 2011. The consequences would be unpredictable for the region.
In principle, "regime change" from the outside is a very controversial concept - according to international law, it is a clear violation of the sovereignty of the state. In addition, such steps often cause a power vacuum or lead to a period of instability and violence. The new government often fails to resolve the country's problems, which causes new crises and conflicts.
The history of the Middle East knows several such attempts, the consequences of which are still felt today.
The failure in Afghanistan
After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States, NATO for the first time invoked Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and invaded Afghanistan to overthrow the Islamist Taliban regime and fight the terrorist organization "Al Qaeda".
Initially, the mission was successful, and the Taliban were driven out of Kabul by the end of 2001. Later, however, the Alliance's attempt to create democratic structures to improve the situation in the country showed that consensus could not be reached on many issues.
The situation remains unstable more than 20 years later - about 3,600 soldiers from Western countries and nearly 50,000 Afghan civilians were killed between 2001 and 2021. After the chaotic withdrawal of US forces from the country in the summer of 2021, the Taliban returned to power. Almost all the changes of the last 20 years have been removed. Human rights violations, violence, assassinations and public executions - all this continues to happen in Afghanistan. The country is isolated and extremely poor - about 23 million people rely on humanitarian aid.
In February 2024 The German government has issued an assessment of the Bundeswehr mission in Afghanistan - for 20 years, the Western coalition has not had a realistic strategy for building a stable state that can guarantee its own security.
The lies about Iraq
The United States previously armed Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, but in 2003, together with the "coalition of the willing" and without a mandate from the UN Security Council, decided to overthrow him. The reason - Saddam Hussein supported "Al Qaeda" and had weapons of mass destruction. These claims were later refuted. "Saddam Hussein was not overthrown because he had nuclear weapons, but because he did not have them", says expert Wörtz today. Iran also realized this at the time, he noted.
After the fall of Hussein, the Americans appointed an interim government, which was later criticized for its poor performance and lack of understanding of the country's specifics. The existing tensions between religious groups led to conditions close to civil war. At the same time, Iraqi soldiers began to fight the American military units that overthrew Hussein.
Years later, the terrorist group "Islamic State" gained strength in parts of Iraq. 20 years after the American invasion and the attempted regime change, the situation in Iraq has improved. Violence has decreased, and elections are due in November. But still - two decades later, the country is still in a period of transition.
Libya: Violence, Insecurity and Division
Libya has also suffered the consequences of an attempted violent regime change from outside. The civil war there began in 2011 after protests to overthrow dictator Muammar Gaddafi. NATO intervened and closed the airspace to protect civilians. The regime fell, and Gaddafi was killed on October 20, 2011.
However, the country has never been able to unite around a government, and armed violence between different militias continues to this day. The state has effectively collapsed - as of March 2022, two separate governments have been fighting for power. The situation in the country is extremely dangerous - the lack of a single state has allowed widespread violence against women and refugees, kidnappings and other human rights violations.
Regime change in Iran is unlikely
Erkhart Wörtz believes that there is another problem with Iran - eventually someone on the ground in Tehran will have to impose regime change. "I don't think there is a large enough rebel movement in Iran itself that could overthrow the regime", says the expert.
And what about change from outside? "In Germany, there was once a successful regime change from outside - at the end of World War II. But it involved an invasion," says Wörtz. "And then you also need a change that the local people can stand behind. It is also good to have a common external enemy - such as the Soviet Union after 1945. It makes it easier to iron out differences on other issues. But regime change has never happened with airstrikes alone, and I don't think Iran will be an exception."
Author: Thomas Lachan