The number of people killed in Gaza is likely to have exceeded 100,000, according to a new study. More than 30% of them are children. "We have not seen anything like this in any other war in the 21st century", say its authors.
A study published by the "Royal Holloway" University of London shows that by the beginning of this year more than 80,000 Palestinians have fallen victim to the war in Gaza.
As the head of the study, Michael Spaget, emphasizes: "The important thing is that none of the victims are forgotten". Therefore, the names of the dead must be listed - something that is currently done only by the Gaza Health Ministry. According to Speget, the ministry's lists are "largely accurate", even though it is under the control of Hamas - an organization designated as a terrorist organization by the EU, the US and other countries.
"The Gaza Health Ministry lists the names of the dead with identification numbers, age and gender. This allows for accurate verification of the data," says Speget. In February, the renowned journal "Lancet" published its own study comparing the list with obituaries distributed on social networks - the Ministry of Health not only did not add names, but some were even missing. That is why it was concluded even then that the data from Gaza were lower than the actual figures.
Field check
The data now disclosed are the first to be collected completely independently of the lists of the Ministry of Health in the Palestinian enclave. They were obtained on the spot - through surveys of the deceased and their families. As part of the study, the scientists partnered with the Palestinian Center for Political and Sociological Research, whose headquarters are in Ramallah in the West Bank.
The researchers spoke to 2,000 households, i.e. the survey is representative of the population in Gaza after the terrorist attack that Hamas carried out on Israeli territory on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war. However, they were unable to enter the areas that are blocked by Israel because they are combat zones. Since much of Gaza's population has been displaced, however, the researchers were able to speak to people in the Al-Mawasi tent camp who had come from the northern Gaza Strip or from Rafah. "Fortunately, none of our field workers have been killed so far. Everyone who worked on the study is alive," says Speget.
One in 25 Gazans Killed
The results: Between October 7, 2023, and January 5, 2025, the number of direct victims of the war amounted to 75,000 people - or about 60 percent more than the Health Ministry's figures, which put the number at 45,805. This means that since the start of the war in the Gaza Strip, with its 2.3 million inhabitants, one in 25 has been killed.
Added to this is the number of so-called "indirect victims of war" - those who died from malnutrition or disease. According to scientists, their number is 8,540 for the mentioned period.
This is a significantly lower number than observers had assumed. A study published in "The Lancet" in July 2024 concluded that for every person killed, four indirect victims should be added. Non-governmental organizations have been warning for months that tens of thousands of civilians in Gaza could die from malnutrition and disease.
According to Speget, the lower number of indirect victims is explained by the fact that the population of the Gaza Strip is young and healthy "thanks to a good health system built with the assistance of the UN and other aid organizations and a high level of immunization". But compared to other war zones, the number of indirect victims is by no means low.
Speget emphasizes that humanitarian organizations have done a very good job, but the data was collected before Israel imposed an 11-week total blockade on aid to Gaza. "People in Gaza are malnourished. If an epidemic breaks out, it will spread very quickly." The scientist emphasizes that the data collected is not final. And the data from the study has not been independently evaluated - therefore, it cannot be considered final either.
How reliable is Hamas's information?
Regarding the data reported by the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, Speget commented: "We show unequivocally that they are not exaggerating the number of deaths - the picture they present is realistic. The percentage of women, children and elderly people who died corresponds to the figures from the Ministry of Health."
According to the study, more than 30 percent of the direct victims were children under 18. Another 22 percent were women, and about four percent were people over 65. Most of the victims were men between the ages of 15 and 49. Young men are most often the victims of military action, the scientists explain. Like the authorities in Gaza, they do not distinguish between Hamas members and ordinary civilians. "We would endanger our field officers if they had to ask if there was a Hamas member in the household." The reason: It could create a scandal that the interviewers are actually agents of Israel.
Speget summarizes the data this way: "In Gaza, four percent of the population was killed. We have not seen anything like this in any other war in the 21st century." If the current death toll is calculated based on the figures collected by the Speget team, it could exceed 100,000, as the Israeli newspaper "Haaretz" writes. A difficult number to assimilate, behind which stand the names and stories of people - like nine of the ten children and the wife of Dr. Alaa al-Najjar, who were killed in an Israeli attack in Khan Yunis on May 23, 2025. Of the family, only Alaa, who was on shift at the hospital at the time, and her son Adam survived. Unlike many others, the world learned their names.