Elon Musk is creating his own party in a country that has one of the most stable two-party systems in the world. What is known about his political goals?
Julius van de Laar: First of all, Musk is trying to put pressure on Donald Trump or at least regain his previous positions and importance. Since he is no longer part of the DOGE (Ministry of Government Efficiency – ed. note) and therefore no longer part of the US government, he has been more or less in conflict with Trump. In my opinion, he is trying to get attention again with the "Big Beautiful Law" Trump and thus return to the spotlight.
Musk issues a warning to Trump
In other words, is this more of a marketing move than a serious political intention?
Van de Laar: I think he is trying to at least partially regain his relevance and some power. What happened? The "Big Beautiful Law" not only increased the national debt by about four trillion dollars. First of all, Elon Musk lost subsidies for his electric cars. This is a huge blow to his “Tesla“, and as a next step, Trump could do the same to “SpaceX“ - Musk's space company. I think that with this move to create a third party, Musk is trying to tell Trump: Be careful, because it could get ugly for you if I decide to influence the slim majority of Republicans in Congress. Musk is probably hinting that Trump should not go too far in his actions.
Musk has a lot of money and influence - but no political experience. How realistic is it that he will actually influence the political course with a new party?
Van de Laar: If we look at history: There have always been candidates who have tried to launch a third party or even to instigate an entire movement to break up the two-party system. Jill Stein, for example, tried to do that in 2016. during the Trump-Hillary Clinton campaign, when some argued that Stein and the Greens were ultimately the factor that caused Clinton to lose the election.
"Even Musk's billions won't do him any good"
This shows where the problem lies: on the one hand, the US electoral system is outdated, some even consider it undemocratic. But this is the system in which Musk will have to position himself. And which shows how difficult it will be for him to make his way. We must also remember that in order to become president, someone needs 270 votes in the Electoral College. This is a very, very long way. Even Musk’s billions won’t do him any good.
What strategic advantages does Musk have in having platforms for mobilizing and shaping public opinion?
Van de Laar: Of course, with X, he has a means to reach millions of people directly. We saw this in 2016, when X, then still Twitter, helped Trump a lot in spreading his messages. But now it’s different: Musk himself cannot run for president, since he was not born in the United States, but in South Africa. This means that not only will he have to start a new party, but he will also need his own presidential candidate to support. Musk himself, however, is extremely unpopular: currently, only 36% of those surveyed have a positive opinion of him. I think this is an important aspect: it is very difficult to have a successful candidate when you yourself cannot run for office.
Who exactly is Elon Musk addressing? The classic conservative voters, the disillusioned Trump supporters, or could he also reach other groups of voters who have not felt represented by any party so far?
Van de Laar: I think it is more the second group: people who do not feel represented. Many voters in the US say: "Two parties are not enough for me, I usually vote for the lesser evil." At least we heard this more often during the last election campaign, so the desire for something new is definitely there. But the likelihood that many Republicans or even Democrats will actually vote for something new is small, and the founding of a party is always accompanied by big problems. Looking at history, I think it's almost impossible for this to actually succeed.
Musk could rally a few million people in Congress to vote against Trump
What impact could the creation of the party have on the political balance in the US in the medium term? Especially with next year's midterm elections in mind, and then the 2028 presidential election?
Van de Laar: The US is in a constant election campaign. There will be midterm elections in November 2026, and the majority in Trump's favor, as we just saw with his tax and spending bill, is razor thin. Now Musk could come out and say he wants to put pressure on. Then he could maybe support two Senate candidates who will always vote against Trump from now on. Or he could pick ten House candidates and support them with a few million, which is a pittance to him, to give them the freedom to turn their backs on Trump. I think that's a much more effective way. Trump will probably do a lot to keep the majority in the House of Representatives, but it won't be easy. I think in the last 40 years there have been no more than three successful attempts by the ruling party to keep its majority in the House of Representatives in a midterm election. In other words, the stakes are really high. Breaking the status quo in power is a complex task, and if Musk goes down this path, his battle will be difficult.
Author: Tim Berendonk ARD