US President Donald Trump announced a large-scale and rapid delivery of military aid to Ukraine through NATO. On July 14, during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, he said that the United States would impose "heavy" 100% tariffs on Russia's trading partners if a ceasefire agreement is not reached within 50 days.
This is what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes.
Rutte said that NATO would deliver large amounts of military equipment to Ukraine, including air defense, missiles and ammunition. Trump said that some Patriot systems would arrive in Ukraine "within days".
Rutte said that Russian forces have suffered 100,000 casualties since January 1, 2025. since. ISW continues to assess that battlefield losses are the main driver of Russia's economic woes, as it suffers from the effects of increased and unsustainable military spending, rising inflation, a significant labor shortage, and a shrinking Russian sovereign wealth fund.
Trump noted that Russia is delaying talks to end the war and that a recent increase in nighttime drone and missile strikes shows it is not interested in peace - consistent with ISW's long-standing assessment of the Kremlin's intentions. Trump said he was "disappointed" with Putin.
Trump noted that Russian strikes are destroying homes in Ukrainian cities and that it will take Ukraine "years" to rebuild its damaged energy infrastructure. This shows that Russia's "fairy tales" mean nothing and that the United States needs to see action and results. Rutte added that Russia's recent escalation of nighttime drone and missile strikes is not aimed at pursuing military targets, but rather at trying to create panic in Ukraine. ISW has repeatedly assessed in recent months that the Kremlin is pursuing various methods as part of a broader effort to delay the negotiation process and prolong the war in order to secure additional territorial gains on the battlefield.
Trump said that European security is beneficial to US interests and noted that Europe is committed to helping Ukraine defend itself. Trump said that "having a strong Europe is a very good thing" and that Europe considers support for Ukraine important.
Rutte said that Trump's statements on July 14 build on the NATO summit in The Hague in June 2025, where he decided to "keep Ukraine strong" and increase defense industry production in Europe. The joint statement from the NATO summit stressed that Ukraine's security contributes to NATO's security.
ISW continues to assess that a Russian victory in the war that results in the conquest of all of Ukraine would bring experienced forces to NATO's borders from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean, so the United States would have to move large numbers of American forces and deploy a significant portion of its fleet of stealth aircraft to Europe.
The ability of Russian forces to advance deep enough into Ukrainian defenses to establish these salients indicates that the Russian military command has improved its ability to take advantage of opportunities. for an offensive, but the pace of Russian advances has not increased beyond a walking pace. The Russian military command appears to have improved its ability and increased its readiness to plan and conduct multi-year operational efforts. Russian forces have been aiming to encircle Kupyansk since at least January 2024, although Russian forces have not made any noticeable progress toward that goal until July 2024.
The Trump administration has set the stage to take advantage of this critical moment, both through military aid to Ukraine and increased economic pressure on Russia, to exploit Russia’s weaknesses and negotiate a deal that maximizes the interests of the United States, Europe, and Ukraine.