The US-Iran war has had a more direct effect on global diesel supplies than the Ukraine war, as it has disrupted refined fuel exports from the Persian Gulf. Supplies from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman have fallen from around 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 to around 670,000 barrels per day in September 2026, the BBC reports.
That's a drop of around 52% and makes access to diesel a bigger problem than the movement in crude oil prices alone. The Middle East is one of the world’s major centers for refined fuels, and the Strait of Hormuz is a key route for their export.
Crude oil recovers, diesel remains blocked
Traffic through the strait has been disrupted by Iranian attacks on tankers and a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. Shipping tracking companies estimate that crude oil traffic through the route has approached pre-war levels in the past month.
Some of the recovery has been due to the U.S. Navy’s involvement in protecting merchant ships. But that hasn’t translated into a similar recovery in refined fuel exports. Diesel flows from the Middle East remain well below pre-war levels.
What’s different about the war in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine is also restricting diesel supplies. Strikes on Russian refineries are reducing production and exports of fuel, while restrictions on Russian supplies are redirecting trade flows to other markets.
The difference is in the mechanism of impact. In Ukraine, the pressure comes mainly from damage to refineries and the contraction of Russian supplies. In the Persian Gulf, the problem is the physical disruption of the sea route by which fuel reaches the international market.
Thus, both conflicts are simultaneously affecting the global diesel trade, but the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz directly affect a major regional source of refined fuel. While crude oil shipments are partially normalizing, the recovery in diesel exports remains limited.