“The refinery has been under sanctions since yesterday. The statement by the US Treasury Department clearly states that all companies that are owned by a sanctioned person with 50 plus one share also fall under sanctions. This means that all companies of “Lukoil“ in Bulgaria are affected“.
This was stated on Nova TV by the energy expert from the Center for the Study of Democracy Martin Vladimirov.
Regarding fuel prices, the expert specified that a shock increase is not expected in the short term, but an increase of about 10-15% is possible if Russian oil is withdrawn from international markets on November 21.
“India has already announced that it will reduce purchases of Russian oil, which will reduce supply. This will affect prices, but we do not expect a catastrophic jump,“ Vladimirov pointed out.
According to the expert, after November 21, the refinery will not be able to fulfill its obligations to counterparties, import crude oil or sell fuels on the market, regardless of whether it uses Russian or Kazakh crude oil.
„The sanctions are imposed on the legal entity, not on the type of raw material. That is, even if they work with non-Russian oil, this does not change the fact that the company is under sanctions. The problem is purely logistical – the banks that service „Lukoil“ will not be able to make payments because they risk secondary sanctions“, Vladimirov specified.
He warned that Bulgaria could face a „Serbian scenario“ – after the stocks are exhausted, the fuels will be sold only in cash and there will be serious disruptions in deliveries.
Vladimirov pointed out that the only real solution is the appointment of a special manager to temporarily take control of the refinery's operations.
„Bulgaria may request a sole license from the US to take operational control over the company. This is not nationalization, but a temporary measure to ensure the supply of crude oil and fuels,“ the expert explained.
According to him, the state must prove to Washington that control is actually exercised by the Bulgarian side in order to receive an exemption from the sanctions.
Martin Vladimirov revealed that a „Plan B“ was prepared back in 2023; for reaction to the shutdown of the refinery.
„The plan envisages the appointment of a special manager and the provision of crude oil from three Western companies. Preliminary contracts have been signed – the so-called standby agreements – which will come into force immediately after the management is activated“, he specified.
According to him, these contracts will guarantee supplies for three months, after which new agreements can be concluded.
When asked about a possible sale of “Lukoil Neftokhim“, Vladimirov said that there has been interest in the purchase for years, but a deal has not yet been realized.
„There were talks with the Azerbaijani company SOCAR and the Hungarian MOL, but both are in a difficult position. SOCAR buys oil almost entirely from “Lukoil“, and MOL is dependent on Russian oil, which comes through the “Druzhba“ pipeline, the expert explained.
In his words, the best option for Bulgaria would be a strategic investor from an allied country, which would guarantee national energy security.
“Everything that will happen to the refinery from now on depends on the United States. In practice, they will be the special manager – they decide whether to issue a license, whether to allow a sale and to whom“, Vladimirov emphasized.