The escalating protests, the collapse of trust in institutions and the increasingly visible political mobilization in the country outline a new and unstable social picture. Sociological data show serious shifts in electoral attitudes, growing dissatisfaction with the governance model and a real opportunity to change the political configuration. Sociological data from Market LINKS spoke to FACTS.
- Mr. Zhivkov, from Market LINKS, you published the latest data from a sociological survey, according to which six parties enter parliament. Let's make the stipulation that the survey was conducted between December 3 and 7, between the two major protests. What did they show the protests on December 1 and 10?
- To a large extent, they showed the same thing - a huge political mobilization throughout the country. Unlike previous numerous protests, which were mainly in Sofia, now we see a clearly pronounced national scope. This gives us reason to compare them with the protest waves of 1989-1990 and 1996-1997. It was clearly seen that the current two protests differ from each other, building on the participation of a significantly larger number of Bulgarian citizens in the squares. In this sense, there is an accumulation of enormous civic energy and it is obviously directed against the model of governance, its exponents, but also against the budget. That is where all this dissatisfaction started.
- Did the opposition expect such a mass movement?
- Honestly, it seems to me that rather not. At the beginning, we saw the set maximum - not allowing the budget or changing the budget, however we formulate it. However, after that, it became clear that the civic energy was significantly greater. The demands for resignation became the leading ones, we heard them clearly after the protest on December 1, and they also became demands of the PP-DB.
- Your data shows that 72% of people are against the budget, and 56% want the cabinet to resign. Both happened. Will this energy be preserved among the protesters?
- In my opinion - yes. The key thing in this case is that this energy, unlike in 2013 and 2020, was not lost. Then it was dissipated in the “successful defense“ of the “Oresharski“ and “Borisov 3“ cabinets, which negatively affected them. Now we have significantly faster resignations, which leads to the realization by Bulgarian citizens that they currently have real power to determine the direction of state development. This is a specific feeling and can provide additional and longer-lasting energy to the protesters and to those who support them in the protest wave. Therefore, I believe that this energy will last until the next elections. These are about three months away and I expect that by then these trends will develop further and we will have higher voter turnout in the spring, when early elections are expected.
- With GERB and “DPS - New Beginning“ you are showing a slight decline compared to the moment the “Zhelyazkov“ cabinet was formed. Are the protests the reason?
- Not only the protests. Rather, the actions of the parties and leaders in the governing coalition, including “DPS - New Beginning“. The series of actions, already at the beginning of the summer, clearly showed growing political radicalization. It was visible after the arrests of deputy mayors of the PP-DB, but especially after that of the mayor of Varna, Blagomir Kotsev. After two months of summer lull, we entered a very hot political winter. We saw how the repressive machine of the state was strengthened with over-empowerment of institutions and serious doubts arose that they would be used as bludgeons - this time also against business. All this accumulated and, together with the attempts to exclude the opposition from the committees in the National Assembly, led to the outpouring of discontent on the streets and squares.
- Six parties in the parliament - GERB-SDS, PP-DB, “Vazrazhdane“, “DPS – Novo nacholu“, MECH and BSP. Do you see a configuration for a cabinet among them?
- I am not sure that I see a stable configuration, unless we are talking about some reproduction of the current model with GERB and “DPS – Novo beginning“. But, considering the current public mood, I doubt that in three months people will allow this government to be reproduced in any version. More serious shifts are possible, including the emergence of a new political entity around President Radev or other significant changes.
- “Majesty“ remain below the line. Is there a secret vote with them?
- Smaller political forces are more likely to have distortions in sociological measurements because their votes are very situational. They have small cores, but a significant portion of their voters make their decision in the last day or two before the vote. “Majesty“ manages to attract just such an unsystematic, punitive vote. It is not ruled out that they will enter the next parliament – we have seen this with “There is such a people” and therefore nothing is certain in the current situation, when there are literally tectonic shifts in socio-political attitudes.
- If we talk about trust in political figures – only President Rumen Radev has a positive balance. When can we expect a party around him?
- I can't say when. Even today, the president deflected this provocative question that Atanas Atanasov asked him during the consultations that are taking place. If Radev decides to complete his second term and postpone such a step until the fall of next year, it is possible that the historic moment has already passed. Personally, it seems to me that for the president the political game is “now or never“.
- How do you explain the fact that not a single incumbent politician has a positive trust rating?
- This is a clearly established and lasting picture in our country, unfortunately. The crisis of trust in institutions and the political class is a fundamental characteristic of our reality. There are no unifying figures, society is highly fragmented and everyone supports only “their own”. Similar phenomena are observed in other democracies, but in our country the distrust is particularly deep and clearly reflects the assessment of the work of the political class over the last 10-15 years.
- If a party of President Radev were created, where would it get votes?
- First of all – from non-voters. This is a serious resource. The president will also draw support from those who entered the 2021 elections hoping for change but were disappointed by the actions of “There is such a people“ and “We continue the change“. In addition, he has the potential to attract a significant part of the Russophile segment, which, although fragmented, is between 20 and 25% of voters. This puts at risk formations such as MECH, “Velichye“, “There is such a people“ and to some extent “Vazrazhdane“.