The last candidates for messiahs that we saw before the elections - Sledi Trifonov (ITN) and Petkov and Vassilev (PP-DB) - were a different type of wave from the one that was in 2001 and 2009 - NMSV and GERB. These were sweeping tsunamis, close to the majority. From today's perspective, it looks like something in the middle between the big tsunamis and the small ones. It seems to me that we will see something bigger than this in 2011, but it will not be enough to govern independently. This will be a completely new parliamentary configuration than the one we have observed in the last 4 years. This was stated by the political scientist from the "Trend" agency, Dimitar Ganev, in the program "Osche ot dnia" on BNT.
100 MPs is something that seems conceivable for Radev. Qualitatively, the process is the one we observed under Simeon, Boyko Borisov, and the PP, and before that under Slavi Trifonov. Here we must distinguish between power and governance. Usually, in a normal situation, people speak out for the government and criticize it, currently the Bulgarian people want to change the government. For me, there is no doubt that a new government is needed and it is associated with Rumen Radev. This is a kind of restoration of the left, said the sociologist Andrey Raichev.
Imagine that the BSP jumps the barrier, Iliyana Yotova becomes president in November, and the prime minister is called Radev – this will be a gigantic change of power, he explained.
Just as in 2001 the vote for the NMSV was a vote against the bipolar model, as in 2009 it was a vote against the triple coalition, and in 2021 against the status quo, embodied by GERB. What we will see now will be the same. There is an accumulated protest and punitive vote in the country on a gigantic scale. In the last three elections, between 2.6-2.7 million people voted – this is the lowest turnout since the beginning of the changes, with an average of about 3.5 million in the last 23 years. That is, there were about 800,000 people who did not recognize their legitimate political representative. Now some of them will recognize Rumen Radev. According to today's estimates, the turnout will probably be about 3.1-3.2 million people. If the turnout rises – This will be a more serious victory for Radev. The higher the turnout, the more Radev will have, because his greatest potential lies in these non-voters. In recent weeks, he has been recognized as the political alternative to what has been offered to us until now, Ganev pointed out.
Andrei Raichev added that we have a qualitatively new political situation in the country. He specified that a big decision is ripening for a change of power among the people. Radev has no problem taking power, but governing. His big test will be the judicial system, for which he needs 161 votes, he pointed out.
According to Ganev, it depends on what kind of support Rumen Radev will receive in order to decide on what model to govern. The tendency is for Radev's formation to be the first political force.
If Radev is obliged to form a coalition, he would first turn outside the parties that embody the status quo, Ganev also said.