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Vladimir Vladimirov in front of FACTS: Bulgaria currently has no influence in North Macedonia

There are already two major Albanian parties that will have more and more influence in the political processes there, says the analyst

Май 15, 2024 09:04 225

Vladimir Vladimirov in front of FACTS: Bulgaria currently has no influence in North Macedonia  - 1

A scandal took shape at the swearing in of the newly elected president of North Macedonia a few days ago. Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova omitted to say the full name of her country during her speech at the official inauguration ceremony. Throughout, she referred to it as Macedonia rather than its full constitutional name, the Republic of Northern Macedonia. This became the reason for the Greek ambassador in Skopje to leave the ceremony immediately. Bulgaria also reacted, with President Rumen Radev and Acting Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev coming out with a position. What to expect in the relations between North Macedonia and Bulgaria… Vladimir Vladimirov, a political analyst of the processes in the Balkans and in Russia, spoke to FAKTI.

- Mr. Vladimirov, the elections in North Macedonia have passed, sorry – with North Macedonia or only with Macedonia, we must now turn to the neighbors…
- (Smiles) Look, we live in Europe, and this place is known, apart from everything else, for keeping contracts. This – to respect the treaties is really the basis of the European Union. We are talking about the mutual recognition, understanding and honoring of contracts. So the country is called the Republic of North Macedonia. And according to its constitution.

- How should we then look at the fact that Gordana Siljanovska – the country's new president, omitted the word “northern“ when he was sworn in as head of state. A political act, a request for something new, a demonstration…
- This speech of Gordana Siljanovska brought her an awful lot of votes during the election campaign. There is another. Many geopolitical vectors intersect on the territory of North Macedonia, which also exert their influence. We, as Bulgarians, know this very well from history. We are talking about a "north-south" vector, a vector to Bulgaria, a vector to Albania, a vector from "east to west". In any case, North Macedonia has been and is a very intense place, and in reality it will continue to be so. This was very clearly seen in this election campaign. In my opinion, this was also one of the main topics - about the name of the country. Somehow the “insult“ - according to a part of the Macedonians, which was inflicted on them with the name change. Mrs. Siljanovska promised that she would not use the word “northern“, which really makes the difference from the other parts of Macedonia, one of which is in Bulgaria. It was quite normal for the government of Greece and the government of Bulgaria to react, because this also affects part of their countries.

- In this line of thought, what should we expect, what style of behavior will we see from the new president of North Macedonia. So far, the relationship has meandered, but still moved within some frameworks that we can call acceptable at times…
- The rulers, who now catastrophically lost the elections - the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia, signed the agreement with Greece, signed the agreement with Bulgaria as well. What you say that there were vicissitudes, there were peaks and troughs is true, but the relationship still showed that North Macedonia wanted to become part of the European Union. And now… The new rulers in Skopje, who won the elections - both parliamentary and presidential - with a very serious result, clearly say that they will take a different course. Their requests are regarding the fact that they would “succeed“ in renegotiating the contracts with Greece and Bulgaria...

- We heard that from Gordana Silyanovska?
- If we talk jokingly and at the table, we can think a lot about this issue. When we're having a serious conversation, it's funny. Rather, it is some pre-election intrigue, something for the masses, and not something in which the new president Gordana Siljanovska herself – after all, she is a law professor, she believes she will make a difference. She knows very well how worthless such a promise is, and her behavior during her swearing-in in parliament is a continuation of her speaking style in the election campaign.

- In this sense, at what stage is the European integration of North Macedonia at the moment…
- The stage is at full zero. We should note something here. The Bulgarian government under Prime Minister Kiril Petkov managed to move the dispute between Sofia and Skopje to one between Skopje and Brussels, which is a great achievement. And this is because, in order to start the negotiations of North Macedonia for membership of the European Union, there is a requirement that the Bulgarians be included in the Constitution of the country. This is no longer a requirement of Bulgaria, but of the entire European Union. So we have achieved a diplomatic victory, and until this happens, North Macedonia will not start negotiations for membership in the European Union. And that cannot be changed. Regardless of what the politicians in North Macedonia say or do. All they can do is make things worse. If they delay and do not include the Bulgarians in the Constitution, my forecast for North Macedonia is bad and it tends to get worse. What will happen to North Macedonia if it secedes from Albania and the Albanians start negotiations or become part of the European Union faster. How will the politicians in North Macedonia, who represent the Macedonian statehood, explain it to the people.

- Many analysts say that Serbia has won the elections in North Macedonia. Why?
- Because Serbia has a very big influence in the country, there are also many opportunities – social, political and economic. The winning party in North Macedonia – VMRO-DPMNE, is quite pro-Serbian and pro-Russian oriented. Let's not forget that its former leader Nikola Gruevski is in Hungary, and this is no accident. The Russian line is very strong, it has a very strong influence. Everyone who is familiar with the trials in North Macedonia knows what it is about. At the moment we should note something else. There are now two major Albanian parties that will have increasing influence. One party is the old DUI, which was supported by Albania – was the second player on the field. The other is the new party VLEN - it won a significant number of votes and is very likely to be the main coalition partner to form a government, and this party was openly supported by the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti. So we have a third player. The fourth player, unfortunately, who we would like and expect to be Bulgaria, currently has no influence in North Macedonia on the field. Bulgaria is out of the processes today in North Macedonia.