Who enters the election campaign how?… Svetlin Tachev from the sociological agency "Gallup International Balkan" spoke to FAKTI.
- Mr. Tachev, the party candidate lists are clear. We see a tendency to activate mayors in GERB-SDS. How workable will this be? You vote for the mayor, and the one after him enters…
- This is another election campaign that presents nothing new. The specific thing is that it is on two tracks. One is the general one, the other is narrowly oriented towards the DPS electorate – between the two formations around Ahmed Dogan and Delyan Peevski. Otherwise, in general, the political formations are worn out, there are no ideas and attractive slogans. And all this is due to the series of early elections and the de-ideologization in which most political parties find themselves. Now we simply see that an attempt is being made in some way to mobilize the parties' cores and to look for some kind of periphery. After the last elections, the parties have largely shrunk to their cores, and the fringes are not participating. So that is exactly what GERB is doing through several of its most successful mayors. Through them, GERB-SDS is trying to find a periphery. People are recognizable, liked. Yes, they will probably remain in the position of mayor, as you said, but the goal is to get new votes through them.
- It is a fact that we have encapsulation of the party cores, but what should this say to the parties. Why did they get there…
- I don't see what the political parties can present as something new - there is none. From here on, the only thing they have before them is to do everything they can after these elections to find a way to form some form of government, because there are two alternatives. We will continue with the elections and the party decay will deepen, because the previous National Assembly was the embodiment of the disintegration of political formations. We're not just talking about DPS, which split. The PP-DB is also creaking from within, the BSP is in crisis. The coalition itself, which made the BSP a purely mechanical assembly, is interesting to see if it will even give the result they expect. In this way, one can go down the road of populism, of populist slogans that usually pop up around every political crisis in the last 10 years. And they are currently starting to become relevant again – to talk about changing the voting pattern, even about changing the form of government of the country. In the current severe crisis situation, they can be subjected to public debate. This will further undermine our democratic system, because they are not a solution. The main problem is not in the system, but in our political elite who have lost their ability to govern. The other is for the parties to find a point of intersection that would unite them in order to make even a temporary government that would lead the country out of the political crisis.
- I will allow myself to correct you that there is nothing new, because we have a DPS-new beginning, and in general we will have two DPS in the parliament. What will this lead to in its wake…
- Yes, from this point of view we have something new, but it is something new that has come from something old. What can it produce... Two things are interesting. First, the DPS war that has begun does not yet have a clear winner. Delyan Peevski won the brand, but an electoral battle is ahead, which can morally decide the case between the two factions who can be defined as DPS and express the sentiments of this specific part of Bulgarian society. Second, it can greatly affect the post-election opportunities to form a government. It seems to me that there are the beginnings of an anti-Peevski front. We saw something like that in the 50th National Assembly, but the parties rather waited to see what would happen in the DPS so that they could regroup for something new in the 51st National Assembly. If we remember when the quadruple coalition between PP-DB, BSP and "There is such a people" was formed, then the figure that united them was Boyko Borisov and the desire to destroy the "Borisov" model. When the “assembly” was created, the common enemy was the chief prosecutor Ivan Geshev, the desire for constitutional changes and judicial reform. So currently such a unifying figure “versus“ it could turn out to be Delyan Peevski. This, of course, largely depends on what results his formation will get. Not a particularly good result for Delyan Peevski, he can definitely unlock a front against him. And here it is important how GERD will act. Therefore, it seems to me that Boyko Borisov is not interfering in the battle between the two factions in the DPS, because he is waiting to decide how to position himself.
- “Revival“ a second political force - this is increasingly possible. What do you expect?
- Let's see who will be the second political power, but – yes, there is such a possibility. “Revival“ in the last election, they stopped their rise because new small political players have appeared that attract disillusioned people in this niche, and they are the brake. Kostadinov's party must somehow use the capital it has accumulated electorally, and it must somehow be traded on the political market. “Revival“ softened the tone at the beginning of the 50th National Assembly and showed that they are also ready for some attempts at concessions. However, everything depends on their election result. If the party improves its result and stabilizes compared to the previous elections, the anti-system talk will continue. If “Revival“ have reached their ceiling and have no rise, we may start to hear a little more moderate talk from Kostadinov's party.
- Sociology indicates that at least 7 parties will enter the parliament. How will a government be made?
- The more political formations there are in the parliament, the more difficult it can be to form a government. The task is difficult, no doubt. The interesting thing now is that nobody wants to talk about who they can work with in the election campaign, but we hear about who they can't work with. And this is because it can affect the election results. However, it seems to me that this time the rhetoric of the parties is a little more moderate compared to the previous campaigns, because they are aware that there is electoral erosion in all political formations, the turnout is decreasing and this allows new small political formations to jump over the barrier. It is also not excluded that the vote will be even more radicalized, and that it will go down the path of populism, which is very dangerous. So it seems to me that this time the experience of the last elections has taught politicians a lesson, on the basis of which they should start looking for opportunities to form a government.