DPS is falling apart, the crisis in BSP was overcome, GERB is stable for the moment… What to expect after the vote on October 27… Prof. Trendafil Mitev - doctor of historical sciences and professor in the department of “Political Science” of the UNSS.
- Prof. Mitev, how complicated is the situation in the DPS and how will it affect the elections?
- What is happening in DPS clearly illustrates the beginning of the end of the so-called leadership political parties in our country. In the last decade, on the basis of the political chaos that is taking place in the party system, two or three formations have been formed – GERB, DPS and BSP (to some extent, led by Mrs. Ninova), as leading parties. Yes, the leaders have shown an ability to play a unifying role for their electorates and their parties have stood relatively the most firmly on the political scene. But these formations also entered into a crisis. It was seen that this is not the future of the serious political forces in our poor and now democratizing Bulgaria. The reason is that the leader, isolated in his domestic comfort, did not closely observe the development and trends of thinking among the political elite of his party, did not see what was happening below him – down among the membership table. Ignorance of what is happening in the lowlands does not allow the leader to react adequately to calm the internal party centrifugal processes. The situation in our country is very complicated, but it is complicated precisely because we are seeing the end of the phenomenon of a leadership political party.
- In this sense, maybe only GERD is surviving for the moment, because there are no earthquakes there?
- You said well “for the moment“… Look, this crisis of leadership parties will lead to a transformation of political formations. Exactly how - for now it is not possible to say for sure, but we will observe new party building processes in the near future. Asking about GERD? For the fifth year now, GERB stands at some 23% as the leading party. Nor does it extend its influence. The conflict with Mrs. Ninova broke out in BSP and it also showed weakness in the organization and did not give good results. We can most clearly notice the processes surrounding the state of the leadership parties in the DPS, where the depletion of the leadership model as an option for the development of the political organization in democratic Bulgaria is practically visible.
- What do you see as the role of the two DPS factions in the parliament. Sociology shows they will come in?
- Probably both factions will enter with some minimal percentages. But in any case, I do not believe that this is in favor of the stability of Bulgarian democracy and our parliamentary practice. If we judge from the current state of relations between the two factions in the DPS, there will be conflict between them, there will be a constant criticism, which is why they would not be the same stabilizing factor that, until recently, could silently lend a hand to one, two or three more serious political parties. Their weight - as two factions of the DPS, in my opinion, will weaken in the parliament.
- Does the fragmentation of the DPS lead to the fragmentation of the parliament as well. Is the time of small parties coming?
- A very big problem, I would even call it a big drama, is the presence of many but small (ie weak) parties in Bulgarian political life. What does it mean in the poorest country of the European Union for 28 political parties and 9 coalitions to appear in elections seven times in four-five years. The term “party“ derives from the term “part“, which translates as “part“. Therefore, the party must be a political representative of a solid part of society. If I have to specify, in the Bulgarian conditions a maximum of 5-6 political parties are necessary. One party to represent the interests of big capital, another to take care of protecting the interests of citizens with small private property, trade – for the agrarian sector, one to engage with the problems of the intelligentsia, one to be socially engaged, etc. And already knowing current problems of the main human masses in the country, these political organizations should be a powerful defender of the vital interests of the individual main categories of people. Of course, already on this basis to search – because we will have few in number, but solid political entities, the development of a state strategy for the solution of national problems and the development of the whole society. It is much better to have few but strong parties rather than many but weak political entities. Hopefully the upcoming elections will bring some change in this regard.
- Doesn't a lot of small parties in the parliament mean a greater representation of society?
- No way. If we look at the political situation, we see how in the small parties we have people who accidentally got into politics. They have no lasting social, economic or political origins and commitments to those real social structures that are present. I don't see any advantage in this regard. We need solid political parties that really express the interests of the main - dominant, but different public and social groups. Of course, each of them should additionally seek common national interests and then a political doctrine should be formed (based on consensus) in order to govern Bulgaria in a democratic way.
- PP and DB offer us different programs because...
- Because DB is not a particularly strong political formation for me. DB joined the PP in order to be present in parliament. If we look at the orientation of the membership of the two organizations, we see that in this coalition there is a visible difference on basic issues, there is no coalition consensus, there is no what is called consensual, constructive, creative statesmanship thinking, etc. There is a lack of generally acceptable modern doctrine for the development of the nation and the state.
- Can we think about the eighth election in a row in the spring, or do you see a chance for a cabinet – was he also temporary?
- God grant that we have a cabinet and that it is not temporary, that it be solid, permanent, why not with one full term. This is not out of the question. However, if the previous party single-mindedness continues, if there is a lack of creative, political thinking, if there is a lack of responsibility towards the nation, if politics continues to be seen as a means of getting rich faster for one or another person in the parliament, it seems to me that at the end of at the end, it is possible to go to new parliamentary elections. If the conflict continues, so will the parliament's helplessness to legislate, as well as to issue and have a stable representation in the executive branch.
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Trendafil Mitev is a doctor of historical sciences and a professor in the department of “Political Science” of the UNSS. He was born on March 15, 1950 in Sofia. He graduated in history at SU “St. Kliment Ohridski”. He is the author of 24 scientific monographs and several historical books. There are also dozens of scientific and journalistic articles published in the Bulgarian press. Since 1990, he has been a founder and member of the Macedonian Scientific Institute, and in the period from 2008 to 2014 he was its chairman. He was elected an academician of BANI in Sofia.