President Rumen Radev will hand over the mandate to form a government to GERB-SDF today. It is expected that Rosen Zhelyazkov, who will be the next prime minister, will receive it, and the coalition will be composed of the BSP, ITN and Ahmed Dogan's MRF. How stable will this government be… Prof. Dr. Rosen Stoyanov, director of political analyses and forecasts, „Gallup International Balkans“, speaks to FACTI.
- Prof. Stoyanov, we are moving towards a cabinet of GERB, BSP and ITN with the support of Ahmed Dogan's MRF. Is this the formula for governing that is convenient for everyone at the moment?
- It seems that this is the only possible formula at the moment. In order for such a government to be effective and sustainable, it needs to be based on an official coalition agreement between GERB, BSP and ITN, but also supported by the votes “from the outside” in the person of the parliamentary group of “Democracy, Rights and Freedoms – MRF”. After a four-year spiral of several-month-long governments and a series of caretaker governments in different formats and under different legislation, it is high time to construct a regular government, albeit with a coalition and legislative program that is not so clear at the moment.
- What will be the role of Dogan's MRF in this configuration, because they certainly do not want new elections…
- Reassurance of their hard-line electorate, more time in attempts to successfully finalize for themselves the legal disputes related to their party - brand, leadership, etc. Also restructuring their local units. An attempt to negotiate their support in exchange for a possible few regional governors, quiet and active work to establish a de facto advantage in the strategically important local state structures for their survival, as a bargaining chip for future support for policies or in moments of crisis for possible votes of no confidence.
- The old MRF, when it was united, dissolved the first cabinet of “Zhelyazkov“. Now one half of the MRF will support him. What a path the MRF has traveled during this time…
- In fact, the start of the public disclosure of the problems and the beginning of the changes in the MRF began when some of their deputies did not support the first cabinet with potential Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov from July 2024. But a lot has happened since then. The most unpleasant thing for the people around Dogan that has happened since then was the split – not so much in the party elite, but the split of their electorate. An undoubted blow to the authority of their party leader was also the questioning of the decades-old image of a single, irreplaceable and infallible leader, unifier and guardian of the ethnic model in Bulgaria.
- In the “name of the state“ the BSP National Assembly agreed to enter into a coalition with GERB. According to Maya Manolova, who is part of the BSP-United Left, this is the “kiss of death“. Whose thesis is more correct…
- Internal contradictions will hardly help the much-dreamed-of unification in the left space.
Such extreme assessments and divergent signals should undoubtedly lead to a logical collapse of the still unestablished left unity.
Clearly, the attempt was more self-serving than strategic. And in view of the proliferation in the nationalist and populist spectrum, the left will have fewer and fewer options for effective publicity.
- There is something else with the BSP. They constantly said that they wanted an expert cabinet. What will be the expertness of the emerging “Zhelyazkov“ cabinet?
- No matter how much someone wants it, Bulgaria has not had such a thing as an “expert“ cabinet. In fact, every government is political. The search for euphemisms is only a short-term trick to divert attention or a cheap attempt to justify one or another conjunctural restructuring in support or not of a given party, idea or policy. On the other hand, personal ambitions for a political career, state positions and access to public resources are clearly a special political aphrodisiac, capable of leading anyone to radically rethink and redefine long-defended “principled“ positions of distinction, opposition and criticism of political opponents.
- ITN are silent. How do you view their position?
- The later they give their official position, the more expected it will be. Thus, ITN raise their price - in seeking support and its public officialization. ITN managed to stabilize its results in the last few elections, and there is also the prospect, under appropriate circumstances, of even becoming a balancer. If, in addition to the perspective, they show the desire and ability to do so.
- “Democratic Bulgaria“ returned to the coalition with “We continue the change“, in order to be in opposition after the negotiations with GERB failed. How do you expect relations within the coalition itself to develop… Which party will have what position…
- And here, as on the left, only the request for some kind of unification remains. This coalition partnership is already over. Slowly and painfully, but it is increasingly likely that they will differentiate their positions to such an extent, now both loudly and publicly, that we will witness another personal change at the top of the several political entities there. From the very beginning, the contradictions between the extremely liberal, especially in terms of state spending, and the conservative right were explained in the media space as possible with an elevated mood as “leftist goals with rightist means“. It turned out that yet another political exoticism did not withstand the challenges of real life.
- Everyone is talking against Delyan Peevski and DPS-New Beginning, but can he see his political interest in having a government?
- Having a regular government is the most profitable thing for Peevski at the moment - on the one hand, he becomes the one whose support - official or not - will be needed in any supposed internal turmoil for the coalition, on the other hand, he will be in the extremely comfortable position of opposition to everyone and everyone. He will continue to call his political opponents within DPS "deribei", he will continue with the attacks on the politician with the highest trust according to public opinion - President Radev, mainly with the idea of becoming an acceptable main public, and hence political player.
- "Vazrazhdane" and MECH are watching from the sidelines, but what do you expect from them. There will certainly be floating majorities in parliament, and then…
- “Vazrazhdane“ has unfulfilled potential – they are experiencing a process of retelling and repositioning. Such processes, by the way, are observed in the right-far right throughout Europe. I am referring to Poland, Slovenia, Hungary, Croatia... and even in Germany. Whether we call it extreme populism or the far right, these processes will deepen and the possibility of relegitimation and increasing the weight of such formations in our political life is becoming more and more realistic. PP Mech still has to maintain or improve its result, so as not to expire into oblivion like the “Velicie“ project.
- What kind of life can such a coalition government have…
- Let's see if there will be a mandate, a cabinet proposal, a vote in the National Assembly... For now, everything is just assumptions and hypotheses. But otherwise - medium-term, with an option for a year or two, a government dotted with problems, crises, attacks and, above all, opportunities. Such a government would survive until the moment when one of its supporters decides that it is more profitable for it to leave. It may sound paradoxical, but it is very likely that the guarantors of this government will not be so much those officially in coalition as those supporting it from the side - the two DPS, and why not at a certain stage and “Vazrazhdane“.