After the weapons fall silent, peace in Ukraine could be imposed by a multinational force with the support of the United States. What could the future peacekeeping mission look like and who could participate?
This is one of the most difficult points in the already complicated talks about a possible peace in Ukraine: how can the country attacked by Russia be guaranteed that it will not be attacked again in the foreseeable future? In other words, it is about security guarantees – convincing military support for the country, so that the price of another attack would be too high for Russia.
In the old world order, such missions were mainly undertaken by the Americans. This is no longer the case - US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that, in his opinion, European countries are primarily responsible for ensuring Ukraine's security. He has suggested that the US provide weapons and equipment, but that other partners should pay for them.
Merz: “A NATO mission could take on the task“
After his meeting in Berlin on Monday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz brought together a number of EU heads of state and government, who issued a joint declaration. It said that once a ceasefire is established, a European-led protection mission with US support would be needed. Merz later added that this could be a NATO mission.
The task of this mission, which, along with EU countries, could include Canada and Australia, should be to provide support to Ukrainian units. The security of airspace and sea access will also have to be guaranteed.
France and Britain will participate, Germany is waiting
The opinion of Ukrainian President Zelensky was similar. In Berlin, he said: “We heard from the Americans that there is a readiness to provide security guarantees that meet Article Five of the NATO Treaty“. That is, an attack on one of the members is considered an attack on all and allows the activation of collective defense. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but the attitude towards it would be similar.
France and Britain have already repeatedly stated that they are ready for a military engagement in Ukraine. But Germany - despite Chancellor Merz's diplomatic initiative - is still showing restraint: it is said in government circles that Monday's declaration leaves open the question of which coalition partners will have to make what efforts.
NATO troops in Ukraine - unthinkable for Russia
The open questions are certainly many - more than those clarified. And it remains completely unclear how Russia could be forced to agree to such security guarantees. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly pointed out that after peace is achieved, the presence of NATO troops in the disputed regions is unthinkable. In this respect, nothing has changed. Merz sees things the same way. But he added the following: “Putin said 'no' to many things, but will always say 'yes' at some point.
In the overall confused situation, it seems possible to conclude: first a ceasefire, then an agreement on security guarantees. For the moment, the most important progress in recent days is that the Americans agree that the peacekeeping mission units will be organized mostly from Europe, and that the United States will support them.
It seems too early for other ideas, including the plan to create a demilitarized zone in Ukraine, which would separate Ukrainian and Russian troops. The idea of establishing a ceasefire before Christmas - something that some had hoped for - also seems less and less realistic.