Donald Trump is not the only state leader who pursues goals in Venezuela. China and Russia also have interests in the Latin American country. What are they?
While experts' assessments of Venezuela's role in the drug trade differ, the country's key importance in oil exports is undeniable. Venezuela has the largest known oil reserves in the world - probably over 300 billion barrels.
These underground treasures have probably also played a role in the actions of US President Donald Trump, for whom oil is a key raw material. The escalation of the conflict, however, cannot be explained only by oil - foreign interests also play a role. Along with the United States, the other two major powers - China and Russia - also pursue their own goals in the region.
What are China's geopolitical goals in Venezuela?
Venezuelan oil accounts for only four percent of China's imports, but the trend is growing: according to data from the “Reuters“ agency, imports of over 600,000 barrels per day were expected in December, which means the majority of Venezuela's daily production. The country is an important source of oil for China, mainly because it can strengthen its energy independence in the global race for raw materials. China imports Venezuelan oil of the “Merey“ variety, which is sanctioned by Western countries.
Beijing, in turn, repays Venezuela with fresh money, including in the form of loans. According to various estimates, Caracas owes between 60 and 70 billion US dollars to Beijing.
Chinese equipment is also being sold in Venezuela: weapons, as well as telecommunications infrastructure, developed mainly with Chinese parts. In September, Maduro presented at a press conference in Caracas a new smartphone from the Huawei brand - “the best phone in the world”, a gift from Chinese President Xi Jinping, which, according to him, could not be hacked by American secret services.
Venezuelan authoritarian-nationalist socialism is close to Chinese state ideology. Beijing condemned the US actions to seize Venezuelan oil tankers, thereby showing itself as its ally. China also condemned the US action in Venezuela as a violation of international law and called on Washington to immediately release ousted President Maduro and his wife.
For ten years, successive US presidents have been paying increasing attention to the Indo-Pacific region - where China is also striving for a dominant role and is increasingly aggressively asserting its claims to Taiwan. Therefore, China is interested in the US focusing on Venezuela or Cuba.
What interests does Russia pursue in Venezuela?
Moscow also has an interest in exerting influence through its allies in Latin America and thus weakening US dominance. In 2001, Putin first received then-Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Since then, Russia has become Venezuela's largest arms supplier. During Putin's war in Georgia in 2009, Chavez helped Venezuela recognize the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent (along with Nicaragua and Nauru).
Maduro, for his part, has made efforts to maintain close relations with Moscow since Chavez's death. In 2019, his power was under immediate threat when then-president of the National Assembly Juan Guaido declared himself the winner of the elections and interim head of state, and the United States immediately expressed support for the opposition. Trump wanted to get rid of Maduro during his first term. However, Russia then sent two warplanes with soldiers and weapons. "Moscow then found a way to save Maduro," said Vladimir Ruvinsky, a political scientist at Columbia University in New York, in an interview with DW. "For the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis, the United States was then forced to discuss the situation in Latin America directly with Russia." In the current confrontation, however, Ruvinsky does not expect decisive Russian support for Maduro - for now, the Kremlin is limiting itself to verbal support.
What does the United States want?
In mid-December, in a post on his social network Truth Social, Trump demanded that Venezuela return "all the oil, land and other wealth that was previously stolen from us". He may have been referring to confiscations as part of the nationalization of the Venezuelan oil industry in 2007, for which not all American concerns received compensation. Only "Chevron" continues to be active in the country, thanks to extraordinary agreements. However, for American concerns, oil production in neighboring Guyana, whose border region Venezuela claims, seems to be much more profitable. In other words, for US oil interests, there are two arguments in favor of the forced removal of Maduro.
During his first term, Trump significantly expanded the sanctions imposed by Barack Obama and has already tried to overthrow Maduro once. His then-national security adviser, John Bolton, described Venezuela, along with Cuba and Nicaragua, as a "triangle of terror". Bolton was later fired by Trump after his support for Juan Guaido failed to yield results. With the move to oust Maduro, US President Trump showed that he was ready to take decisive action to change the regime in Venezuela.