Comment by Emilia Milcheva:
Over 30% for a new player in the April 19th elections means one thing - the parliament is shrinking for everyone else, and the internal party battles for leadership positions and preferences in the lists are shaping up to be particularly fierce.
The reason is the emergence of the former president Rumen Radev and his project “Progressive Bulgaria“. If the forecasts are confirmed, entire parties may remain outside the 52nd National Assembly, and others may have to say goodbye to part of their mandates. So far, opinion polls have allocated seats in parliament to five political forces: Radev's formation, GERB-SDF, "We Continue the Change" - "Democratic Bulgaria" (PP-DB), DPS-New Beginning and "Vazrazhdane".
Bulgaria uses a proportional electoral system with multi-mandate districts, and mandates are distributed according to the D’Ont method, which gives a certain advantage to larger parties. And even a slight drop in support can turn into a more serious loss of parliamentary seats for small formations.
Arranging the lists - compromises and offended
Therefore, party headquarters position leaders and key candidates in districts where they can rely on their solid cores and have a chance of getting MP(s). And some of the leaders even lead two lists. The latter is a tradition in Bulgarian politics, although it is not correct towards the voters.
There is no surer way to understand how united and cohesive a formation is than the arrangement of the lists, which does not go without compromises and insults. The result is that some have real chances of winning a seat in parliament, others remain extras. The lists must be registered by March 17, and for some parties their arrangement will be literally until the last moment. Leaders in previous elections change districts or go to more backward places, new faces are inserted here and there.
Only “Vazrazhdane” makes only two changes in the leaders of the lists - in Silistra and in Targovishte, where they failed to win a mandate in the previous vote. Party leader Kostadin Kostadinov announced that in Silistra, Marin Nikolov, chairman of the local organization, will lead, and in Targovishte, Emil Borisov, who recently came from Antonovo. The chairman of the MRF-NN Delyan Peevski will lead again in Kardzhali and Blagoevgrad, and in general, the leaders from the previous elections retain their seats. But the biggest intrigue is undoubtedly the lists of Rumen Radev's coalition.
Volleyball players, mountaineers, gymnasts
From the nominations, it is clear that the strategy of Radev and his team is to choose well-known and prominent local people, famous athletes and his former advisors and secretaries as leaders. Among the local candidates are municipal advisors, former regional governors, lawyers, businessmen, some of whom were also in other parties.
It is already known that the president of the volleyball club “Levski” Vladimir Nikolov will lead the list in Plovdiv. Nikolov, who is the father of national team players Alexander and Simeon - part of the team that won a silver medal at the last world championship - has supported Radev for a long time. He was on the initiative committee for the re-election of Radev and Iliyana Yotova in 2021.
In Smolyan, the leaders of the list will be swimmer Petar Stoychev, who has won the World Cup in swimming marathon for 11 consecutive years, karate competitor and Olympic champion from the Tokyo Games (2020) Ivet Goranova, as well as world champion in artistic gymnastics Yordan Yovchev.
For Kyustendil, for example, the chairman of the Municipal Council Dimitar Velinov has been mentioned. For Ruse, the name of arch. Zhivka Buchukovska, who worked as the chief architect of the Danube municipality in the period 2012-2020. Initially, the former speaker of parliament Iva Miteva, formerly a deputy from “There is such a people” (ITN), was considered for this position. The deputy mayor of Yambol and a famous acrobat Encho Kiryazov will be the leader of the list in the region. The list of “Progressive Bulgaria” will also include the mountaineer and motivational speaker Silvia Andreeva.
Rising Stars
Like any new formation, Radev's project will mainly rely on new faces, for whom he opens a path to big politics. This is a positive signal to voters, but it also hides the risk of swarming after entering parliament.
Until then, however, a leadership clash in one of the capital's districts will be awaited with interest. GERB Chairman Boyko Borisov will again lead from the 25th MIR in Sofia and Plovdiv-city. PP leader Asen Vassilev will also lead the PP-DB list in Plovdiv city. The surprise will be which metropolitan district Radev will run from, probably also from the 25th MIR, known as the leader's district.
And against Borisov in the 25th MIR, PP-DB for the first time sent Boyko Rashkov, the former Minister of the Interior, who arrested him. Luck betrayed Borisov with the appearance of Hristo Petrov (Itso Hazarta) from PP, who beat him by twice the number of preferences.
The Sunset of the Gods
But Borisov still surprised by removing from the leaders of the lists in Sofia the long-time mayor Yordanka Fandakova and the Speaker of the Parliament Raya Nazaryan, already second after Tomislav Donchev in the 24th MIR. Fandakova is also in second position after Delyan Dobrev in the 23rd MIR, who for the first time will be the leader of two lists, and one of them is in Sofia - in addition to his native Haskovo. This comes after recent events, when Dobrev was about to leave GERB, but was pacified.
However, the news in GERB does not end with the former Minister of Energy. Vladislav Goranov, who was sanctioned under the “Magnitsky” for corruption, is returning to politics, former Minister of Finance in the third GERB government.
“Goranov has ties to the Bulgarian oligarch Delyan Peevski, who was sanctioned by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Goranov used his position as Minister of Finance to facilitate the bribery of Bulgarian state officials and deprive the Bulgarian state of tax revenues in favor of Bulgarian oligarchs”, the ΟFAC reasons in February 2023 wrote. Vladislav Goranov left the Ministry of Finance in 2020 after revelations of alleged ties to gambling boss Vasil Bozhkov. In recent years, Goranov has begun to appear at public GERB events, and Borisov has been highlighting his role for the eurozone. Now the financier, with whom gambling boss Vasil Bozhkov had exchanged text messages, will lead in Varna, and rumors are also sending him as a leader in Silistra. In Varna, his rival may also be Rumen Radev, who is expected to lead two lists.
Borisov began to build an alibi for loss
However, there is one GERB MP whom Borisov invariably puts on the lists, and that is the doctor Lachezar Ivanov, a member of parliament in a total of 11 parliaments, including the current one. Despite his passivity as an MP, he will again be on the GERB-SDF list - in the 25th MIR.
The fact that GERB is once again betting on familiar faces for the elections shows that Boyko Borisov is not looking for serious renewal, but prefers to rely on party veterans in parliament. His party will have to prepare for the role of “second violin” in Bulgarian politics, where it has dominated since 2009. At that time, over 1.678 million people voted for GERB. 15 years later, they had lost over a million of them.
No matter what tricks Borisov pulls out in the campaign for the vote on April 19, he will not be able to return even a tenth of them. Regardless of whether he takes pictures with a white swan, a white kitten or like in the Brothers’ Show. He is now starting to build an alibi for the election loss with periodic statements about how “the machines will be tampered with”.
The case of Yavor Bozhankov
One of the intrigues in the PP-DB is related to Yavor Bozhankov, whom “Promyanata” demanded to be removed from the lists because he did not obey party orders. At the end of 2024, the PP leadership demanded the resignations of Bozhankov and Daniel Lorer because of their voting against the nomination of Silvi Kirilov (ITN) as Speaker of Parliament. Now the former BSP MP has been nominated by DB, but it is not certain whether he will find a place on the lists.
Sofia is of particular importance for the coalition, since the most MPs come from the three metropolitan districts. In the 23rd MIR, the PP-DB list will be headed by former Prime Minister Acad. Nikolay Denkov, who is also expected to lead in Blagoevgrad, where he is opposed by another former Prime Minister - Rosen Zhelyazkov (GERB). The list of the 23rd MIR includes the co-chairman of "Yes, Bulgaria" Bozhidar Bozhanov and the leader of DSB Atanas Atanasov. The other co-chairman of "Yes, Bulgaria" Ivaylo Mirchev is the leader in the 24th MIR.
But the arrangement of the lists is only the first stress test. The big question is whether the elections will shake the system and destroy the current balance - or the system will absorb the new political player. Particularly cautious, Rumen Radev avoids answering the question of who he will choose as an ally, apparently counting on gathering maximum support. By the evening of April 19, he will have to have made a decision.