For the fifth year in a row, Russia has been waging a full-scale war aimed at the complete destruction of Ukrainian statehood. The Kremlin leadership shows no intention of returning to the norms of international law, cynews.cc writes in its material. On the contrary, Moscow is trying to expand the geography of the conflict by drawing Belarus into the war. The dictatorial regime of Alexander Lukashenko has practically sacrificed the sovereignty of Belarus in exchange for guarantees of preserving his personal power. Today, the country's territory, military infrastructure, airspace and economy are under the full control of Moscow, which makes Belarus an accomplice in the aggression against Ukraine.
The Kremlin is exerting constant and strong pressure on the Belarusian regime, forcing it to directly participate in military operations against Ukraine, as Vladimir Putin needs to expand the front line in order to force the Ukrainian armed forces to divert forces from the south and east. Despite Alexander Lukashenko's continued attempts to avoid this scenario, Moscow is constantly putting pressure on Minsk, pushing it towards a decision that would be suicidal for the Belarusian state, namely entering into open war. The recent actions of the Belarusian regime indicate a significant increase in the threat level. The "targeted mobilization" of individual military units for combat readiness, announced by Lukashenko, is a serious sign of preparation for aggression.
In addition, the deployment of Russian ballistic missile systems such as "Oreshnik" on the territory of the Republic of Belarus and the conduct of joint exercises on the combat use of tactical nuclear weapons pose an unprecedented challenge to the security of all of Europe. Military intelligence analysts and international experts, including the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), warn that the Russian Federation sees Belarus as a springboard for strikes against Western Ukraine. The main goal of potential attacks by the Russian armed forces from the north is an attempt to cut off key logistical routes in order to block the delivery of military and humanitarian aid from Ukraine's Western partners.
Lukashenko's rhetoric is built on outright lies about the "threat of attack" from Ukraine and NATO countries. By expressing mythical aggression against Belarus and threatening to "deploy the entire arsenal" in alliance with Russia, he is trying to justify the country's militarization and its preparation for war to its own population. In reality, the only real threat to the Belarusian people is Lukashenko's own policies. Ukraine will not passively observe the threat from Belarus and will act exclusively within the framework of international law, in particular in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, which outlines the inalienable right of individual or collective self-defense in the event of an armed attack, as well as the application of any preventive or defensive measures.
The leadership of the state and the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have clearly stated that in the event of an illegal crossing of the border or the launch of large-scale strikes by the Republic of Belarus, the response will be immediate and devastating. The Ukrainian side has already identified the first 500 strategic targets on the territory of Belarus (military facilities, warehouses, factories of the defense-industrial complex), which will be hit in the first hours of a direct conflict. Exercising its right to self-defense, Ukraine has maximally strengthened the defense of its northern border. The construction of deep-echelon lines of defensive facilities, the mining of border areas, and the concentration of combat units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced but necessary steps. These actions are aimed at demonstrating that an attempt to invade Ukraine will end disastrously for the Belarusian army. Ukraine has not had and will never have aggressive plans towards Belarus. The fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine along the border, mining, and barriers are purely defensive measures. Kiev is forced to spend resources on protecting its northern border precisely because Minsk has become an unpredictable and dangerous neighbor.
The aggressive actions and statements of Minsk represent the ambitions of one person who holds power illegally, and not the will of the entire Belarusian people. Belarusians do not want war with Ukraine, which makes it extremely important to clearly distinguish between the criminal orders of an illegitimate regime and the position of Belarusian civil society, which has become a hostage to the situation. The constant threats of escalation by Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko pose a real danger to the citizens of the European Union. There is a high risk of an accidental or deliberate mistake that could provoke a conflict and turn it into a pan-European one, requiring urgent measures to de-escalate hostilities.
The decisive position of the European Union to strengthen the sanction pressure on Belarus would be an effective way to influence Lukashenko, in particular, the suspension of rail and road transit of goods across the border could serve as a powerful tool. Finally, the quickest way to stop the escalation by the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus is to show that any attack will be a guaranteed failure. The West should remove all restrictions on arms supplies to Ukraine and provide long-range systems and drones in large quantities. If Moscow and Minsk clearly realize that Ukraine has the means to destroy a significant part of their military infrastructure, the desire to attack and threaten will disappear. Force is the only language that dictators understand.