What if Putin decides to test NATO in Lithuania or the other Baltic states? He will get a tough answer, security experts are convinced. They do not believe that a possible such Russian attack would be successful.
Social media and news feeds are constantly talking about drones and hacking attacks, and recently another term has been added to this worrying terminology - "air raid".
Putin steps up pressure on the Baltic states
Last week, everyone in Lithuania received air raid alerts on their phones, urging people to head to the nearest shelter. The reason – the appearance of an unidentified unmanned aerial vehicle in the country's airspace.
This was followed by a clarification from the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry: Russia, using electronic warfare (EW) means, is redirecting Ukrainian drones to the Baltic countries in order to later accuse them of providing Ukraine with corridors for strikes on Russian territory.
On May 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law that gives him the right to use the army outside Russia's borders to "protect Russian citizens". In the Kaliningrad region, they recently declared a "drone alert" for the first time - probably a false one.
Almost simultaneously, Moscow asked the UN court to summon the Baltic states, and Latvia in particular, to answer to it for "violation of the rights of Russians". It is known that this court has been considering such cases for years. In Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn, these steps are perceived as another element of Moscow's strategy to put pressure on the countries on NATO's eastern flank. "I wouldn't say that the threat level has increased, but the rhetoric (of Russia. -ed.) has become much sharper," said in an interview with Vilnius' "Radio News" the head of the State Security Service of Lithuania Remigijus Bridikis.
"Veterans of the SVO" are preparing to cross the border?
The events of recent weeks have given rise to a lively debate about the risk of provocations or even an invasion of one of the Baltic states by Russia. This has been talked about in the region since the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. It is assumed that this "violation of the rights of Russian citizens", which Putin has undertaken to protect, could become a pretext. Latvia and Estonia, with their noticeable and often compactly living "Russian-speaking minorities", are considered priority targets for Moscow.
However, most experts do not believe that there will be a large-scale invasion, pointing out that its preparation is impossible to hide from the intelligence services of NATO countries, and the ongoing aggression against Ukraine practically does not leave the Russian regime enough forces and means for such an operation. Ultimately, it would most likely lead to a real war with the Alliance, which Russia is not able to win.
Another scenario is considered slightly more likely: in one of the Baltic cities (most often mentioned are "Russian-speaking" Narva in Estonia or Daugavpils in Latvia) a person with Russian citizenship is killed or maimed. Then an angry group of "veterans of the so-called special military operation" (in fact - Russian special forces disguised in civilian clothes) invaded the territory of one of the Baltic states with weapons to take revenge on "nationalist Russophobes". They devastated the border post and customs, killed several police officers, raised the Russian flag on the city hall and retreated back to the Russian Federation. The purpose of the raid, from Moscow's point of view, should be a demonstration of the weakness and vulnerability of NATO's eastern flank, stimulating a political split within the Alliance, but without the risk of a major war.
Lithuania is less often mentioned as a potential target of Russian provocation. It borders only the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, 80 percent of the country's population is Lithuanian, and ethnic Russians make up, according to official data, no more than 5-6 percent. After the restoration of independence in 1990-1991, Lithuanian citizenship was granted to all who wished.
NATO sees everything
On the other hand, the only railway line connecting the Kaliningrad region with the rest of Russia passes through Lithuania. The security problems of this transit seem to be a more solid pretext for action. Some analysts note that the Russian military and special services consider themselves masters of "non-standard solutions" and in this case they may choose Lithuania as the object of such a provocation.
Linas Kojala, director of the Center for Geopolitical and Security Studies in Vilnius, sees no point in guessing which country could become the target of a Russian action. "Lithuania faced direct Russian threats as early as 2022. Since then, they have become a daily background of our lives. There were arsons, GPS jamming, cyberattacks, and now drones have been added," the political scientist recalls.
He adds that the Kremlin is not fixating on just one country, but is trying to put pressure on all NATO allies. According to Koyala, "if Moscow really needs an escalation, it will always find an excuse".
Kir Giles, research director at the London-based Centre for Conflict Studies and a consultant at the Royal Institute of International Affairs "Chatham House", considers not only a possible large-scale invasion, but also a smaller-scale provocation to be unlikely. "Preparations for a limited operation cannot go unnoticed by the intelligence services of the Baltic states - they see and hear very well what is happening deep in Russian territory", he said in an interview with DW. According to Giles, over the past 10-12 years, the Baltic states have prepared well to repel Russian attacks. "To prevent a cross-border raid, they will not even need the help of their allies. They will manage on their own."
The alliance will help the Baltics even without Trump
Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, which border Russia, are not like Donbas in 2014, says James Sher, an expert at the International Center for Defense and Security Studies in Tallinn. "Then Russian agents were actively operating there, and the state power of Ukraine practically ceased to exist", he also explained in an interview with DW. "Here in Estonia, as soon as a Russian saboteur cuts the first line of barbed wire, everyone immediately learns about it - from the National Situation Center in the capital to local authorities. In addition, in the border settlements of the three countries, people are very vigilant and quickly notice foreigners."
In recent years, the Baltic states have restored or significantly increased conscription and training of reservists. The presence of NATO multinational battalions on the front lines in all three countries is also an important deterrent for Russia. By 2028, 5,000 soldiers from a Bundeswehr motorized brigade will be stationed in Lithuania.
At the same time, the noticeable skepticism of the current US administration towards NATO raises the question for many: will the US remain faithful to the principle of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which considers an attack on one member of the alliance as an attack on all.
"The military and political leaders of the Baltic states, according to my observations, today mention Article 5 less and less", says James Sher. "Everyone understands that in the event of an attack from Russia, Donald Trump, instead of sending American paratroopers, may start calling Putin. Therefore, in the event of a crisis in the region, plans and mechanisms are already being actively developed to create expeditionary forces of the Allies from the ranks of those who are ready to act."
Such an opportunity is fully provided for in Article 3 of the North Atlantic Treaty. "In the interests of more effective implementation of the objectives of this Treaty, the Contracting Parties, individually and jointly, through constant and effective independent efforts and mutual assistance, will maintain and increase their individual and collective potential to resist armed attack." In addition to the countries of the Baltic region, we are talking about the participation of Great Britain, Finland, Sweden and possibly Germany and Poland. The Polish army is currently a leader in the field of technical rearmament and training of reservists.
Or as James Sher says: "The motto of the Baltic states and their allies today is simple: Let them meet in Brussels – "We are preparing for battle here."