The war in Iran has been going on for three months now. And Trump seems to be at a dead end. Tehran is skillfully taking advantage of his weakness and holding the world economy hostage.
Three months ago, Donald Trump started this war from his Mar-a-Lago estate - he posted a video on his Truth Social profile to inform the American people that the United States had begun heavy military action against Iran. From this video, people were unable to get an answer to the most important question: why is the president sending the country to war in the Middle East together with Israel? White House press secretary Caroline Levitt explained that the decision was motivated by a "fact-based feeling" that Iran poses a serious and urgent threat to the United States.
Trump has repeatedly said that things are going extremely well for the United States on the battlefield. Just a few days after the start of the war, he was already categorically saying that victory had been practically achieved. At the end of the first week, he indicated that on a scale of one to ten, the situation on the front line was a 15, German public media outlet ARD recalled in its publication.
Three months have already passed since the beginning of this conflict. In recent weeks, there has been increasing talk of reaching an agreement to permanently end the war. These negotiations continue to fail. Despite the ceasefire in force, the United States has launched strikes on Iran for the second time in the past few days, which it reports as self-defense. Tonight, Iran retaliated by attacking a US base in the Middle East and US positions in Kuwait. The truce has been fragile from the start, but now the situation looks increasingly distant from a permanent end to the war.
The world economy held hostage by Tehran
Donald Trump continues to make statements like those he made at the beginning of the war, but many of his supporters are already angry. Even conservative commentators who generally support the president - such as Joe Rogan, who is probably the most popular podcaster in the US - disagree with his actions in the Middle East. Rogan says the discrepancy between Trump's campaign promises (including not getting the country involved in new wars) and reality is "abnormal". Many feel betrayed and still do not understand why this war began, writes ARD.
Public opinion polls show that only a small percentage of Americans view Iran as a serious threat. In this war, the reaction of the regime in Tehran was exactly what Washington has been predicting for years to be in the event of an escalation - attacks on US allies in the Persian Gulf and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy prices are skyrocketing worldwide, and Tehran is holding the global economy hostage, we also read in the ARD publication. Trump says he is surprised by this development and that no one warned him that Iran would behave this way.
Problems for Trump in the USA
From the very beginning, most Americans were against this war. Now it is becoming a domestic political poison for Trump. When asked by a journalist when fuel prices would fall, the US president replied that they simply had to end it with Iran, which would be "very soon". This was at the end of March.
The war has been accompanied by incessant publications by Donald Trump on Truth Social. The US president made threats of genocide, then promised a quick peace, then demanded Iran's unconditional surrender, and finally announced a ceasefire or its extension. Meanwhile, he was angry with his NATO allies for not wanting to enter the war on the US side. In fact, the Alliance countries were not even informed that the Americans intended to start such a war, writes ARD.
Iran takes advantage of Trump's impatience
It is becoming increasingly clear that Donald Trump is in a dead end - the tactical successes of his army are failing to bring the strategic victory he had hoped for. A return to heavy bombing is not a promising option for success - not least because a huge amount of ammunition was used up in the first phase of the war.
The US president's constant posts on social media show the Iranians that the longer the war drags on, the more impatient Trump becomes. The Islamic Republic is taking advantage of this weakness - the regime is deliberately procrastinating, negotiating extremely slowly, and thus deepening Trump's domestic political problems. It is clear that Tehran has survived despite the heavy military pressure.
According to Karim Sajapour of the "Carnegie" Institution in Washington, both sides in this war believe they have the upper hand. And Trump has adapted his ambitions for the war to the situation - now the focus is on opening the Strait of Hormuz and finding a solution to Iran's enriched uranium. According to the expert, however, Iran has no desire to make serious concessions on these issues. That is why the real end of this conflict is not at all on the horizon.