Defense spending, the war with Iran, support for Ukraine and personal diplomacy will be among the main topics of the NATO summit in Ankara, where allies will try to convince US President Donald Trump that Europe is finally taking its share of the burden, write Doris Pandy and Elena Raduan for DPA.
All eyes will be on Donald Trump at the annual NATO summit in Ankara next week, when it will become clear whether the months-long efforts of the Alliance's Secretary General Mark Rutte to win the US president's favor have paid off.
On Thursday, Trump continued to criticize European NATO allies, calling their relatively low military budgets "absurd".
The American president, along with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has repeatedly expressed his dissatisfaction with the unwillingness of allies to support Washington in its war against Iran.
Rutte, whom some analysts call "Trump's tamer", will try to convince the American leader of the commitment of European countries to the Alliance and their efforts to increase their defense spending and capabilities. The challenges ahead are numerous, however.
War with Iran strains relations
One of the key questions will be whether months of tension between Washington and European capitals over the refusal of some allies to support the military campaign against Iran, which began on February 28 without prior warning, can be overcome.
During a recent meeting in the Oval Office, Trump described Rutte as a "great man", crediting him with keeping the transatlantic alliance together. At the same time, he again criticized countries such as Spain that have refused to allow the United States to use their military bases for combat operations against Iran.
Hegseth recently described the allies' position as "shameful" and announced a comprehensive review of the US military presence and US bases in Europe.
In Europe, however, the war against Iran is widely seen as a reckless and economically damaging offensive that does not fall within the scope of NATO as a defensive alliance. Moreover, European allies were unpleasantly surprised by the lack of prior coordination when Washington launched strikes together with Israel.
Hope is now focused on a possible naval mission led by Britain and France at the suggestion of Rutte, to ensure safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after the end of the fighting.
However, impatience is growing as negotiations between the US and Iran for a lasting agreement drag on. Germany and other countries are pushing for just such an agreement before sending minesweepers and other warships to the area.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has already hinted that the two German warships sent weeks ago to Djibouti for the possible operation could be withdrawn if there is no clarity soon.
"They won't wait forever," he warned.
Missiles, drones and submarines
Another serious challenge remains Europe's military capabilities and the dependence of European allies on the US military.
Since Trump returned to the White House early last year, Washington has stepped up pressure on European countries to increase their defense spending.
At a summit in The Hague last year, all 32 allies agreed to increase their military spending from 2% to 3.5% of gross domestic product, with another 1.5% of GDP earmarked for defense-related investments.
NATO is expected to release its latest defense spending data just before the Ankara meeting to show Trump the results of its constant pressure, and European capitals will be eager to demonstrate that they are fulfilling their commitments.
Ankara will also be attended by defense industry representatives who will try to turn political promises into real contracts for the purchase of missiles, drones and other military equipment, accelerating the rearmament of Europe.
Amid the gradual curtailment of American commitments to NATO, the perceived threat from Russia remains the main incentive for European countries to increase their military spending.
Russia remains in focus, and Ukraine expects new aid
The complex relationship between Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will also be in the spotlight again.
Zelensky is expected to attend the forum as a guest and is likely to request new military aid, emboldened by Ukraine's recent successes in striking Russian oil infrastructure and military facilities far behind the front lines.
However, Russia still controls about a fifth of Ukrainian territory more than four years after the war began, and US efforts to end the conflict have so far yielded little.
The Ankara meeting will provide an opportunity for European allies to reaffirm their unwavering support for Ukraine and pledge billions of euros in new military aid.
All allies, including the US, are expected to once again designate Russia as a "long-term threat" on Euro-Atlantic security, as was also recorded in the final declaration of last year's summit.
Tense bilateral meetings are also expected
Several potentially tense meetings between world leaders are expected outside the official program.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will speak face-to-face with Trump for the first time since the US president said at the G-7 summit last month that she had "asked" him for a group photo — a claim that Meloni has strongly denied.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk may also have a difficult conversation with Zelensky after the Ukrainian president sparked outrage in Warsaw with his decision to name a Ukrainian military unit linked to World War II fighters accused of massacres of tens of thousands of Poles and Jews in what is now western Ukraine.
Despite the dispute, Tusk pledged Poland's continued support for Ukraine, stressing that historical emotions should not prevent Europe from standing up to Russia — an approach that many in NATO would probably like to apply to their relations with Trump.
Mass arrests in Turkey ahead of the meeting
All this will take place against the backdrop of domestic political tensions in Turkey, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been accused for years of repressing the opposition and restricting human rights.
In the weeks leading up to the meeting, authorities detained hundreds of people, imposed a complete ban on demonstrations during the forum, and restricted access to the venue for journalists from independent Turkish media.
Trump is expected to arrive in Ankara on a new Boeing 747 aircraft gifted to him by Qatar. The US president recently said that Erdogan was the reason he decided to attend the meeting, despite his irritation with other NATO allies.
In an attempt to further curry favor with Trump, the Turkish president will open the doors of his vast presidential palace, where he will host an official state dinner for the US leader and other heads of state and government from the Alliance.