The effect of job losses in German industry is slowly starting to be felt. This is very clearly visible today in the automotive industry - for example at "Volkswagen" and its sports car subsidiary "Porsche", where thousands of jobs are expected to be cut.
This trend is already being referred to as "China shock", writes the German public media ARD. The reason is that Chinese products are increasingly displacing German ones on the world market - with the active participation of the Chinese government, which is promoting this policy.
"Germany is losing jobs"
"China shock" has already given rise to political reactions. Johannes Volkmann, a politician from the ruling CDU, is calling for the introduction of countervailing duties and other measures to protect German jobs from competition from China. "Germany is currently losing between 10,000 and 12,000 industrial jobs every month", he warned.
This is not just about the conditions for production in Germany, but also about unfair competition, questions of currency manipulation and excess production capacity. "Compensating for this is in the interest of Germany's market economy," Volkmann stressed, as quoted by ARD.
China's success - Germany's weakness
Volkmann is saying what economists have long observed: Chinese factories produce more than they need for the domestic market. They are exporting successfully - with strong support from the Chinese leadership. For example, the Chinese yuan has been artificially low for a long time, making it easier to export.
In addition, Chinese online trading platforms such as Temu and Shein have long circumvented European customs regulations. In the end, in a short time, China's success and Germany's weakness have become visible in many places.
Volker Hellmeier, chief economist at Netfonds AG, sees China's rise as a trend that is gaining momentum. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicting growth of 4.4 percent for the Chinese economy this year and a rise in consumer prices of 1.2 percent. "This means more stability," he explains.
Europe is considering measures - China threatens
More growth, lower inflation: from a Chinese perspective, this may be good, but it is increasingly at the expense of other economies. This is felt in Germany and in Europe. The EU is considering countermeasures to deter China: whether these are tariffs or other trade restrictions, such measures must in any case be taken by Brussels.
The Chinese leadership has already made it clear what it thinks of such measures: it is threatening a counter-reaction. At the same time, Beijing denies influencing world trade in its favor. At the end of May, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning stressed that such measures would be counterproductive for European consumers, would increase costs for businesses and, in the long run, would weaken the competitiveness of companies. "The EU must look at its economic relations with China comprehensively and objectively and uphold its commitments to free trade," Ning added. China is watching the EU's behavior very closely and will use legitimate means to protect its own interests and rights, Beijing assures.
Quick responses are needed
Germany and Europe see this differently: voices calling for immediate action are multiplying, explains the ARD. Changes are taking place with incredible speed, points out Janka Yortel from the think tank "European Council on Foreign Policy". According to her, if there is no reaction to the situation in the coming months, Europe will find itself in a situation in which it will be even more difficult and even more expensive to take action.
At the same time, however, it is clear: many companies, especially German ones, will not be happy with the possible imposition of tariffs and trade barriers because of the risk of retaliation by China, also points out the public media ARD.
Author: Alfred Schmidt (ARD)