The elections in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday became not only a historic breakthrough for the far-right "Alternative for Germany" (AfD), but also a painful reckoning for more than three decades of German unification. In a report for POLITICO, Anne McElvoy traces how economic backwardness, demographic decline, distrust of the political elite and a sense of lost East German identity are fueling the rise of the AfD and could lead to the first far-right government of a German state since 1945. We present the material in the first person - as the author wrote it.
Ulrich Siegmund, the leading candidate of the far-right party "Alternative for Germany" (AfD), took to the stage at the central market in the city of Naumburg and declared that there was a new "awakening" in East Germany.
Ahead of crucial elections in the Saxony-Anhalt region on Sunday - in which Sigmund is almost certain to become the first far-right leader to govern a German state since 1945 - this appeal to an Eastern identity touched many people.
A young man next to me shouted "Ostdeutschland!", even though he was too young to have lived in the communist German Democratic Republic. "It was cleaner there," he explained. "More German. Not America-Germany like the West."
Elements of Sigmund's "New Awakening" sounded reminiscent of the old East, and his speech would surely appeal to the Kremlin. He denounced the folly of supporting "corrupt" Ukraine and stressed the need to return to oil and gas supplies from Russia.
East Germany officially collapsed in 1990, but it did not disappear. Its struggle for identity within the German federal system, with power concentrated in Berlin, fueled the rise of the far right.
If "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) did secure a landslide victory this weekend, it will raise serious questions about how chancellors like Helmut Kohl, Angela Merkel and Friedrich Merz failed to manage the post-unification transition and prevent large parts of the east from drifting down a political trajectory to the far right.
Sausages and strong arms
In the generally upbeat queue for sausages and beer in Naumburg, there were some more somber people in neo-Nazi T-shirts and uniforms. One in the crowd told me that the government in Berlin was "sending our tax money to Jews in Israel and to (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelensky instead of spending it here".
It is important to emphasize that eastern political identity is not a monochrome nostalgia for the GDR. In fact, the AfD is repurposing the slogan from the 1989 anti-communist demonstrations - "Wir sind das Volk" - "We are the people" - for its own purposes.
It touches on memories of the freedom marches in the last days of the socialist state.
"And now we will show the world again," said Dirk Husenlaub, a locksmith in his blue overalls whom I spoke to during another campaign stop in the nearby town of Lützen.
He is doing well as a self-employed worker, supplying many local companies. But he adds that "the people at the top don't want us to do well - they are keeping us down on purpose." A number of internet conspiracy theories followed, including the idea that Merz and his predecessor Merkel "betrayed us - we risk our country collapsing the way the old East Germany collapsed".
Beyond the friendliness of the sausage queue, the mood can quickly turn sour - as I discovered when I tried to speak to Sigmund in Lützen, only to be told that the "mainstream" press was not welcome. I was roughly shoved aside, my arm twisted by a muscular, burly Sigmund, who wore a headset and had a heavily tattooed neck.
"Move or I'll take you to the police", he barked. We had a brief, unproductive debate about the constitutionally guaranteed right to free information in public places.
Another loud jostling and shoving ensued, which ended with me tripping over the curb and being dragged to a police car. No one seemed particularly bothered by this.
"This woman is not cooperating," the guard growled. At the next stop in Naumburg, another attentive policeman ordered me to stay away from "Security Zone 1" - anywhere near the stage.
Then came the more chilling warning.
"This is for your own safety," he added. "It is best to remember that in this area the AfD is the master."
Merkel and the backlash against migration
The last two chancellors - Merz and Merkel - provoked a strong backlash in eastern Germany.
For Merkel, the outcome could have been more positive. She herself is from the East and was an active participant in the Wende, or "turn" away from communism. She inherited Kohl's promise to create "flowering landscapes" in the "new federal states". Abandoned cities have been rebuilt, air pollution from burning brown coal has ended, and potholed roads are now smooth enough to drive fast in Mercedes and BMWs.
But the East has reacted much more negatively to Merkel’s decision to allow a massive influx of asylum-seeking migrants from Syria and North Africa in 2015 and 2016. She expressed her empathy for this in a conversation with me in 2018, saying she understood the anguish of Easterners who saw their communities demographically emptied and traditional jobs disappear.
"Of course, these disturbing personal experiences affect people and leave a deep mark - we need to understand that," she said.
But Merkel’s responses did not go far enough for people worried about the speed of social change. And since 2015, the AfD has been on the rise.
The Covid era has also deepened divisions: a social media campaign has called for the introduction of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine over better options. This demonstrates a complex mix of attitudes that still strongly underpin the AfD’s message today: distrust of Western capitalism and acceptance of Russia.
Veteran sociologist Detlef Pollack diagnoses a "mythology of victimhood" that Western politicians have a hard time combating without sounding distant. Three-quarters of AfD voters believe a united Germany has deprived them of what they deserve.
Frustration has marked the actions of Merkel and her successor, Merz, speaking to the mood in the old East.
"There is no point in trying to convince you (of the justification for taking in more than 1 million refugees)", she said at a rally in her last election campaign in 2017 in the industrial town of Bitterfeld, as a hostile crowd booed and honked horns to drown her out. Backstage, she shook her head, clearly furious.
The more Merkel was praised as the embodiment of international liberal democracy for her poor relations with US President Donald Trump, the more alienated she became from socially conservative eastern Americans. The AfD also learned from the MAGA movement how to combine multiple strands of thought into campaign messages laced with a raft of fake or exaggerated stories.
The arrival of Merz, a Western politician who lacks a broad range of communication skills, along with the difficulties of the wider German economy - such as the symbolic blow from the predicted mass job losses at the VW plant in Wolfsburg, near the old border - have further tarnished the appeal of the Federal Republic's prosperity model.
Lagging
An assessment by the Halle Institute for Economic Research notes that after the 1990s "the initial momentum for catching up has stalled." Since then, the East German economy has grown even more slowly than the West German economy.
The study cited “the lack of productivity of East German companies,” as well as a persistent brain drain and a slow rate of new business creation. A German defense official, who was authorized to speak to POLITICO on condition of anonymity, added: “To a large extent, the new defense industries that will boost prosperity and security are based in the old Federal Republic. This gives the East less interest in arming itself against Russia – a double whammy that we have to deal with.”
Merkel calls for more “courage” to "fight for democracy", channeling his own brand of nostalgia for 1989. These messages embolden the AfD's opponents, including faithful Germans who are now uniting as they did in 1989 against the communist regime.
Merz warns that a far-right government in Saxony-Anhalt would mean "foreign investors will pull away from the province in the future" and that it "will face significant problems".
Whether these scare tactics will prove convincing remains to be seen.
Merz also does not exude much personal interest in the East, other than seeing it as a problem to be kept out of the way. Very few of his cabinet members are from that part of Germany - although the party points to the rise of a new generation of East Germans in the next level of ministerial posts. This may need to be accelerated soon to counter the growing mood of alienation.
Arriving for a brief visit on Monday to endorse Sven Schulze as his party's candidate for chancellor of Saxony-Anhalt, the chancellor denounced "people who trade in anger". He dared to stand up to voters - something that many leading politicians avoid.
Saxony-Anhalt is a small state in terms of population - just over 2 million. But it is also the cradle of the Lutheran tradition of challenging the strong - a theme that the more historically minded rally participants raised with me.
As Sigmund says: "Even if we don't get there (an absolute majority), we won't leave." This was also a slogan from the streets at the end of 1989. And in 2026 it caused a huge cheer in Naumburg, drowning out counter-protests.
On Sunday, the AfD was put to the test.
This will also happen to the German political elite, which achieved unification only to lose much of its control over popular power.