Even if you don't fill your own car with diesel, its price has a big impact on your life. While gasoline is mostly used as a fuel for passenger cars, diesel powers much of the economy as a whole – from freight and agricultural machinery to construction and industry. That's why a diesel shortage or a sharp jump in its price could have a bigger economic impact than higher gasoline prices.
As pressure mounts on businesses, these higher energy costs will be passed on to consumers, contributing to a deepening crisis in living standards and inflation.
US blames Ukraine for diesel shortage
The United States and China are among the world's largest producers of diesel. China reserves much of it for domestic consumption, making the US the world's largest exporter of diesel. However, the average weekly price of a gallon of diesel in the US is currently $6.52 (€5.73), according to the US Energy Information Administration. This is a significant increase compared to last year, when the average price was $3.74 per gallon. Two years ago, the average price was $3.53 per gallon.
President Donald Trump recently called on Ukraine to stop attacking oil refineries in Russia, "because it is leading to a diesel shortage". The fact is that Russia is one of the largest suppliers of diesel fuel in the world. And since 2022, some of its refineries have been attacked no less than 15 times. The International Energy Agency estimates that Russian diesel production has fallen by nearly 30% from 2025 levels. Moscow has already imposed export restrictions to meet its domestic needs.
After Russian production fell, the United States went into full gear to help make up the difference, but even that wasn’t enough. And on September 22, Trump announced that his administration was considering a ban on diesel exports. Such a move is likely an attempt to lower domestic prices ahead of the US midterm elections in November, as energy prices and affordability are important campaign issues. Leading energy lobbies have spoken out against the plan, and many industry experts believe the ban would lead to prices falling too slowly or even backfire, forcing U.S. refiners to cut output, raise prices or both.
Europe is particularly vulnerable to the diesel shock
For Europe, higher diesel prices could have dramatic consequences. “Decades of policy incentives, such as tax breaks, have led to Europe's car fleet being significantly more dependent on diesel than in other parts of the world, such as the United States,” said Georg Zachmann, a research fellow at the Brussels-based think tank “Bruegel”. “As a result, the EU has a structural surplus of gasoline to export and a shortage of diesel to import,” said Zachmann, who specializes in energy and climate policy.