The West must pragmatically evaluate its military and financial aid for Ukraine and to see it as an investment in the security of Europe. Because a defeat of Ukraine will cost him much more, say experts.
If the West allows Russia to win the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin and its authoritarian allies will spread their influence around the world, undermining the foundations of international order and democracy. Support for Ukraine, leading to its victory and subsequent EU membership, would bring security and economic advantages to Kiev's allies. This is stated in the study "Ukraine: the price of inaction" prepared by the Brussels think tank "Friends of Europe". within the framework of the "Ukraine" initiative.
The authors of the study based their conclusions on interviews with representatives of NATO, the European Commission, the European External Action Service, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, members of the Ukrainian government and parliament, as well as political and economic experts from EU member states and NATO. Many of the interviewees agreed to give their opinion on the study only on the condition of anonymity.
Aid to Ukraine is not only "morally right"
"The war in Ukraine is a cornerstone of our time. And the choices that Western governments will make in response to it will have far-reaching consequences not just for Ukraine or Europe, but for democracy around the world," the study said. It analyzes the direct and hybrid threats that the Russian regime poses to NATO and the EU, and notes that financial and military aid to Ukraine is not only "morally right" but also in the West's geopolitical and economic interest.
If Kiev is defeated, "Putin will not stop with Ukraine, but will continue to develop Russia's imperial ambitions" and no European country will feel safe, the document notes. And although there is a decline in public solidarity with Ukrainians in Europe and North America amid the growing "cost of war" and slowing economic growth, spending to support Ukraine today "will save taxpayers even more defense costs in the long run".
Furthermore, if Ukraine wins, it will be not only a strong strategic ally of the West, but also an "economic partner with enormous potential". Thus, in particular, the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine can be of significant business interest to Western partners. "Support for Ukraine is already creating jobs in the West, and investing in its recovery will bring even greater benefits," the authors of the study believe. And the integration of Ukraine's agricultural and energy sectors into the European economy will "increase security of supply and help protect consumers from price shocks”.
The actions of the West are crucial to Ukraine's victory and its further movement towards a "democratic, European future". "With the appropriate level of international support, Ukraine can achieve an outcome that safeguards that future, ensuring that it becomes a strong, independent partner of the West and an example for democracies around the world," the authors of the study conclude.
"Russia must lose this war"
In the two and a half years since the war has been going on, Europeans have learned that freedom and security come at a price and "it must be paid," said Dutch Defense Minister Kaisa Olongren. "We must respond to the aggressor and stand up in defense of European values. And that's why we need to talk not only about solidarity with Ukrainians," she said. The minister is convinced that by helping Ukraine, EU countries "become stronger themselves".
So far, only a little over 30 countries are "supporting and actively helping Ukraine", Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said. According to him, the West must decide "whether it wants Ukraine to win". "It is important for us that Ukraine not only wins the war, but also that Russia loses it, because we understand what is at stake," Pevkur said. Estonia is one of the countries that provides the most aid to Ukraine, allocating 0.25 percent of its gross domestic product to Kiev's military needs. "If other countries did what Estonia, the other Baltic states, Poland and the Netherlands are doing, this war would have ended a long time ago," the minister said.
"It is about the restoration of the Russian Empire”
The cost of each day's delay in Western aid to Ukraine is human lives and destroyed infrastructure, said former Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic. The war in Ukraine will affect the future of all of Europe, she is convinced. "Let's not be fooled: the war will not stop in Ukraine. Because it is about Russian expansionism and the restoration of the Russian Empire. We see clashes of different ways of life and different values, common to us and to Ukraine", said the former president.
Aid for Ukraine is not an expensive fad or charity, because the investment in Ukraine's success "will pay back a hundredfold when you think about what it has to offer Europe," says former NATO spokesman Jamie Shea. "Ukraine is already a key partner of the EU in the energy sector and will become an equal member of our single market. Despite the enormous challenges, Ukraine continues to carry out reforms to achieve this goal", said the European Commissioner for Energy, Kadri Simson. She stressed that Ukraine's Western partners "must do everything to ensure that Ukraine wins". "If Russia wins the war, it will be a big threat to Europe's energy security," Simson stressed.