North Korea's behavior has been extremely aggressive recently. Now Kim is even more dangerous because he is sure he has a big and powerful friend in Putin. And this could push him to take military action against South Korea.
Explanations for the tense situation on the Korean Peninsula are varied. Some suggest that North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un has given up all cooperation with the South. However, others suspect that this is just a maneuver to distract people from the troubles in the country.
However, there is another, far more worrying explanation. According to some analysts, this escalation is a sign that, after long efforts, Kim Jong Un has finally managed to secure the support of Russia. Kim now believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin will support him militarily if necessary.
This could lead Kim to cross the so-called red lines that have supported the armistice since the end of the Korean War in 1953 until now. In addition, analysts fear that even a minor collision on land, at sea or in the air can escalate very quickly.
"Partnership with North Korea"
"It is clear that North Korea's behavior has recently changed to become more aggressive," said Hyun Seong-soo, an expert on North Korea-Russia relations at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul. "This is due to Moscow's changed attitude towards Pyongyang - Putin has decided to support the partnership with North Korea as part of his global political strategy," Hyun told DV.
According to the US, as part of this agreement, North Korea supplied Russia with millions of artillery shells and an unknown quantity of missiles, which the Russians are using in the war against Ukraine.
In return, Russia is believed to have supplied North Korea with fuel and urgently needed food. Russian scientists are also said to have been involved in the development of North Korea's military arsenal, including missiles, satellites and nuclear weapons.
New arms deliveries?
"Now Kim is even more dangerous because he is sure he has a big and powerful friend in Russia. And this could push him to take military action against the South”, warns Hyun.
"The increased aggression along the border between the two Korean states can also be explained by North Korea's failed attempt at the end of May to launch a rocket carrying a satellite into orbit. The launch was strongly condemned, including in South Korea, as a violation of UN Security Council resolutions.
Garbage balloons and ballistic missiles
In response, Pyongyang fired several short-range ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan, and recently released thousands of helium balloons loaded with waste and human excrement across the border. The balloons did not cause much damage, but were criticized as a heinous act.
For its part, Seoul has decided to resume propaganda with powerful loudspeakers installed along the border, broadcasting propaganda messages against the regime in Pyongyang, which has repeatedly threatened to destroy these loudspeakers with artillery strikes.
Shots at the border
On Sunday (June 9), gunshots rang out in the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas after a squad of about 50 North Korean soldiers crossed the border and South Korean soldiers fired warning shots.
"This confrontation is different and more dangerous than other times," said Ra Jong Il, a former diplomat and senior South Korean intelligence officer. "It seems that the North is very angry. There, they know that their economy is incomparably weaker than that of South Korea, and they understand that their way of life cannot be compared to ours, he adds.
"Prepared for anything"
In recent weeks, the US, which is Seoul's most important ally, has repeatedly shown its support for South Korea. An American submarine docked in their port, and a B-1 nuclear bomber, escorted by South Korean fighter jets, flew a mission near the border. In addition, the US monitors very closely all movements of military units in North Korea.
Against this backdrop, US Ambassador to Seoul Philip Goldberg assured this week that the US is "prepared for anything, no matter what happens". At the end of the month, an important anniversary is coming up, and many people are looking at it with concern: June 25 marks the 74th anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War, which claimed the lives of almost 3 million people – both military and civilians, for which Seoul and Pyongyang blame each other.