If Peevski's plan had succeeded, he would nominally rule GERB, but in reality Delyan Peevski himself would be pulling the strings. The main question is why Ahmed Dogan failed Peevski's plan. Comment from Daniel Smilov:
DPS has opened a new page in Bulgarian politics - its leader Delyan Peevski, who wants to be chairman and not co-chairman of the Movement, wrote a love letter to its honorary chairman Ahmed Dogan. Filial love and respect combined with oaths of allegiance are the meaning of the long text. And where there is love, there is also hate - in the case of Mr. Peevski, it is aimed at the "deribes" in the Movement which were discovered by him and his associates in the latter days. An undeniable "deribey" was identified as Ramadan Atalay, although it was not clear what earned him this unflattering label.
Politics of love and hate
In general, the politics of love and hate in Bulgaria can be summarized as follows:
- Ahmed Dogan and Delyan Peevski love each other, but cannot stand each other and talk to each other through public letters and mediators;
- Boyko Borisov and Delyan Peevski do not see each other officially, but they seem to love each other in their own way, even when they fight;
- GERB and PP-DB hate each other sincerely and unreservedly, but GERB only want to rule together;
- ITN are hated by everyone (with reason), and they hate PP-DB the most. But in general, ITNs are good at capitalizing on hatred, especially that towards PP-DB;
- "Revival" they supposedly hate GERD and DPS, but love to please them. Most sincerely, they hate PP-DB, who reciprocate. But Kostadinov nevertheless wants to govern with the PP-DB in an Anti-GERB/DPS coalition;
- BSP currently mainly hates Kaloyan Metodiev;
- At "Majesty" both love and hate are great but inexplicable.
And with the naked eye it can be seen that there is deep tension and even division between Delyan Peevski and Ahmed Dogan in the DPS. The only thing that is not known is what is the cause of this dislike. The specific occasion on which things blew up was the vote of the GERB cabinet: Dogan gave instructions to vote "against" and Delyan Peevski was categorically "for". At the same time, processes of division in Velichie, incomprehensible with public arguments, were going on, which left doubt that enough deputies from this formation were convinced in one way or another to support the GERB government. By his actions, Dogan actually prevented this scenario by breaking away enough MPs from the DPS to vote against it. Thus "Majesty" became (or rather remained) unnecessary.
What is interesting in this case is that Boyko Borisov and GERB were simply tools in Mr. Peevski's plan to form a Bulgarian government. It was the instrumental subordination of GERB that actually turned the intervention of Dr. Ahmed Dogan into the last barrier between Peevski and the official government of the country. If Peevski's plan had succeeded, the GERB government would have depended both on the votes of the DPS and on Peevski's ability to persuade MPs from "Majesty" and others like them. That is, he would nominally manage GERB, but in reality Mr. Peevski would pull the strings.
A few hypotheses
The main question is why Mr. Dogan foiled Mr. Peevski's plan after the relationship between the two was described by Hamid Hamid as "more than between father and son". On this issue, journalists in Bulgaria must uncompromisingly ask the involved persons until they receive a clear answer. Because for now there is none. Here are some hypotheses:
- Ahmed Dogan was afraid of Mr. Peevski's excessive ambitions, which will turn DPS into something like a major factor in the country's governance. Because of Mr. Peevski's reputation, the "Magnitsky" etc. this would be explosive and could lead to a new period of serious stigmatization of the Movement and its isolation from official power;
- Dogan was enraged that Peevski was using his own methods against himself and his DPS men. Media attacks combined with police and prosecutorial actions are Mr. Peevski's trademark. But so far these gripes have not been applied against the "enemy with a party ticket", especially if his name is Ahmed Dogan. By the way, Peevski's love letter to Dogan does not solve the issue of swinging clubs: the attack on "deribes" is in fact a threat that Peevski will continue to use the media against fellow party members - and from there until the prosecution is activated it is nothing and nothing;
- Dogan felt sorry for his long-time friend Borisov for what was in store for him. A GERB government, which is a puppet on strings for Mr. Peevski, is an insulting job no matter how you look at it. And Mr. Borisov himself may have asked Dogan to intervene in order to avoid this scandal.
These are not mutually exclusive versions - they even reinforce each other. The only thing that is clear is that Mr. Peevski's version of the "deribes" in DPS, which he discovered quite by accident after 20-30 years, is unsustainable and self-respecting journalism should not even seriously discuss it.
Can the love letter give birth to a second-term government?
One of the results of the confrontation so far is that DPS will propose a government, and not just return the second mandate. This is clearly also a dividing line between Ahmed Dogan and Delyan Peevski. If there is to be a reconciliation between the two, it will be on terms set by Ahmed Dogan - and an effort for a government appears to be one of those terms. But the unity of the group will only be guaranteed if Peevski and Dogan have joint control over ministers and policies of the new government.
This is also the key to the second term of the DPS. To be implemented, it must be modeled after the "technocratic" government. It is not excluded that the prime minister is from GERB and even if it is Rosen Zhelyazkov, but more experts will be selected among the ministers - probably from the official cabinet, and not controversial figures like Delyan Dobrev. GERB will have enough positions to justify support for another party's mandate. It is not entirely clear how support for such a cabinet would be secured, however, except again through the "Majesty" group. But then Mr. Peevski is likely to once again hold the trigger aimed at the head of the "technocratic government". Only some special agreements Borisov-Dogan-Peevski could put the other two of the triumvirate in an equal position.
One such option, which excludes ITN, is more convenient for GERD and DPS. With ITN, President Radev will also enter the account with his own claims, which will further complicate the equation and may make it undecidable.
A third term?
In recent days, there has been talk of creating a technocratic government with a third mandate. Some of the requests - like that of "Revival" for Anti-GERB/DPS-government - not worth discussing except as pre-election campaigning.
ITN's idea of an expert government from all parties could make sense if it was in the GERB-DPS-ITN format. The participation of other formations will be irrelevant, because these three will always have a majority and will dictate the government's policy. However, it is not clear whether GERB and DPS will be ready to make enough concessions regarding ITN for the implementation of this option. And the appetite of ITN is clearly great, which probably led to the collapse of the negotiations between these formations for the first mandate.
Both DSB and Hristo Ivanov got involved over the weekend with ideas for a "technical office" with the third mandate. This option would mean that the third term would go to PP-DB, which would be a difficult decision for President Radev. The more serious problem is that even if the mandate holder is PP-DB, they will have very little control over such a government, which will always be able to rely on majorities around GERB and DPS (whether with ITN, "Velichie" or other formations ). In theory, PP-DB can ask for a politically binding agreement on specific priorities (it was actually already drafted in the previous parliament). But binding agreements don't mean much in our political context.
Due to these complexities, it is still likely that a government will be formed with the fourth mandate - a caretaker government, probably again with Prime Minister Glavchev. The traffic police manage anyway - why should they officially bear the responsibility for this. A little theater of love and hate can mislead people that GERB-DPS is not in charge even now.
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This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and of DV as a whole.