The combination of hoops and clubs that took place clearly showed why don't they manage GERB and DPS together: such management will be hostage to corruption-laden conflicts threatening to erupt at any moment, writes D. Smilov.
Supporters of free democracy and the European integration of Bulgaria will have a unique chance at the parliamentary elections in October. If they manage to mobilize, they will be able to achieve, if not an outright victory, then an impressive enough result to be a decisive factor in the next parliament. The reasons for this are mainly two: first, the crisis with their opponents and second, the high price they will pay if they do not mobilize. This price should be a serious motivator: without much exaggeration, it will be expressed in the loss of Bulgaria's clear European perspective, as well as the erosion of freedom and democracy in the country.
Opponents' weakness
Another fruitless National Assembly ended, in which GERB and DPS practically had a majority, but did not decide to govern. The specific reason this time was the rift in the DPS between Dogan and Peevski, which led to the failure of the first term with the “minority government” of GERD. Whether the reason for this gap is portions of several hundred million or is the understanding that the very idea of management between GERB and DPS (with the help of breakaway greatnesses) is not working, is not very clear. And these reasons are not mutually exclusive.
What is happening is a problem for the Borisov-Peevski tandem anyway. Once again, all doubts were confirmed that the law enforcement and law enforcement authorities in Bulgaria are acting on political orders from this tandem, or at least from Peevski. As happened with the removal of Ivan Geshev, the election of Borislav Sarafov, the entry of the prosecutor's office into the KTB, etc. For a long time, for example, it was known that there were big problems with the loans given by BBR to businessmen close to Dogan and GERB. It was known that a large part of these loans had been defaulted for a long time: in fact, the state was paying for these projects. Peevski had to fight with Dogan, however, to “run” the Valka and Stoyan Mavrodiev institutions. Especially the second one is from the circle of people of Vladislav Goranov and – however ironically it may be – of Boyko Borisov.
The played combination for hoops and clubs clearly showed why the idea of GERB and DPS to manage together is not good at first – each of their administrations will be hostage to corruption-laden conflicts that can erupt at any moment. And in order to suppress them, the chief prosecutor and judges will again have to be suitable people, which also explains the rush to elect new magistrates from the current SJC. But even with magisterial protection, a GERB-DPS government would be highly vulnerable both to protests in the country and to criticism from the EU and the US.
The second reason for the weakness of the Borisov-Peevski tandem is purely technical. It has never happened before that two months before the elections, it was not known how and whether DPS would participate in them. And now we are in exactly such a situation. If it comes to a legal challenge to the "DPS" label, a reasonable person would bet on Delyan Peevski to win it. Thus “the new beginning” it will become redundant, but the Bulgarian Turks will also lose their representation, which will create huge problems. DPS – in some form – will participate in these elections, but it will be internally divided and therefore weak. And if Borisov-Peevski also lose Interior Minister Kalin Stoyanov, the cost of election manipulations and vote buying will rise. In any case, it will be more difficult for Peevski's formation to "serve” with votes and resources of convenient small formations to muddy the waters and be crutches for GERB-DPS in the next parliament.
GERB and Borisov understand all these difficulties and try to keep their distance from Peevski. But only in words – in all actions, such as the dismissal of regional governors close to Dogan, or the protection of Kalin Stoyanov – Borisov acts again in sync with his alter-ego.
"Revival" are also in a special position in the new situation. They gather an anti-establishment vote because there is alienation from politics and accumulated resentments and frustrations. But the vast majority of Bulgarians are well aware that the "Revival" alternatively, they are much worse than the current system with all its flaws. Moreover, the moment it is understood that the system is truly threatened, it will lead to a serious mobilization against the "Revival". The only thing that can prevent such an immune reaction is “legitimization” of "Revival" by any of the “systemic” parties. GERB have gone down this path with their decision to pass the obscene law banning the promotion (actually the mention) of non-traditional sexuality in school. In this way, however, GERD also risks a lot – in practice, their status as a “systemic party” erodes.
The BSP (metaphorically speaking) has fallen into a period of internal party fisting and tribadism, which for now makes them complacent and excludes them from big politics. No apparent damage to anyone.
For the rest of the players, the passage above is valid, referring to the ability of Borisov and Peevski to redirect resources to other parties. With ITN, there is an additional feature that they are also spokespersons for the president.
The cost of lack of mobilization
Weakness of opponents does not mean electoral victory, however. The necessary step is mobilization and voting. In a situation where the enthusiasm to vote for other parties will be very limited, own mobilization can work wonders.
But supporters of free democracy and European integration, who at the same time do not think that parties with corruption baggage are a good solution, are currently demobilized and divided. Part of the reason is certainly the PP-DB policy, which cannot meet all expectations. Not least because they are controversial – one half of the supporters see GERB and parts of DPS as potential partners, and the other – as the biggest opponents. Both halves are right, but that does not prevent each of them from wanting the PP-DB leadership to share only their opinion.
Internal party contradictions are a good thing and, as the experience of the BSP shows, can lead to arousal of the sexual imagination and a desire for experimentalism. But still, such self-indulgence is indecent in a situation where free democracy in Bulgaria and its European future are in question. And that they are already in question is increasingly visible – the search by GERB on the way to "Revival" and “patriotic” formations is a clear symptom of serious illness. It could lead not only to laws about “foreign agents” and all other phantasms of the native kopecks ("native" is used ironically.) The hope that with a national populist government with pro-Putin elements Bulgaria will enter the Eurozone reminds one of the poem by the poet Abraham Cowley: "Hope is the most hopeless thing of all." ”
Against hope
Supporters of free democracy in our country have the self-confidence of reasonable voters who soberly assess the situation and act guided by high values. The amazing thing is that, from this point of view, they have a unique chance to perform surprisingly well in the coming elections – with moderate mobilization, they could both achieve a serious result and prevent the erosion and slipping of Bulgaria in a Eurasian direction.
What's more: If they are truly rational, these supporters will not want the PP-DB campaign to be focused on whether or not they will succeed in mobilizing. And they will ask their representatives to try to expand influence in new groups – especially outside the capital. There are many problems to solve in this regard, such as the serious inequality between the capital and the rest of the country in terms of income and economic development. After all, a free democracy is best defended not by entering into verbal confrontations with the corrupt and kopecks, but through governance models that modernize Bulgaria and raise the welfare of all.
Abraham Cowley titled his poem “Against Hope”. Reasonable people are therefore reasonable because they act, not just hope.
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This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and of DV as a whole.