Comment by Emilia Milcheva:
The relations between Bulgaria and North Macedonia again got stuck in the old ruts of confrontation - formally because of a missing national flag at a meeting between the presidents of the two countries, followed by the insult “uncivilized host” for Sofia, spoken by the Macedonian Deputy Prime Minister. So far everything is like a textbook for hating - and it continues according to the same textbook written outside of Europe.
Skopje asked Brussels to postpone the effect of the changes in the constitution for the inclusion of the Bulgarians, lying in the so-called “French proposal”; guarantees for the Macedonian identity and reciprocity with the recognition of the so-called Macedonian minority in Bulgaria.
For internal party use
The Bulgarian reaction was easily predictable - condemnation and a warning that the language was unacceptable and such actions would hinder the European path of the Republic of North Macedonia (RSM), (governed by VMRO-DPMNE). President Rumen Radev, Acting Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev, mogul Delyan Peevski and the chairman of “Vazrazhdane” Kostadin Kostadinov condemned the Macedonian attacks and demanded retaliatory actions, including the intervention of EU partners. GERB leader Boyko Borisov demanded the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Nikoloski, who in turn accused Bulgarian politicians of ensnaring the RSM in the pre-election campaign rather than dealing with high levels of corruption. (But VMRO-DPMNE came to power on the wave of anti-Bulgaria.)
With the French proposal, “Bulgarian interests are absolutely protected”, was categorical Lena Borislavova from PP-DB. The French proposal is the basis of the negotiation framework of the RSM with the EU, in which the change in the constitution for the inclusion of Bulgarians was included as a condition for opening the negotiation chapters. Prepared by the French Presidency of the Council of the EU, it was approved by the cabinet of Kiril Petkov (PP) and the 47th National Assembly - thanks to the efforts of the co-chairman of the DB Hristo Ivanov, and allowed to lift the Bulgarian veto on the European path of Skopje, imposed from the office of GERB.
The unity of the Bulgarian political elite on the Macedonian issue is known, despite the polarization on many other topics. However, all these statements are more like smoke intended for domestic political use. The only foreign policy request came from GERB/ENP MEP Andrey Kovachev, who said that the European People's Party is informed about the behavior of VMRO-DPMNE and will initiate a procedure for its exclusion.
Macedonian Prime Minister Hristijan Mitskoski rightly called this intention "a good April Fool's joke" – The EPP is known for its slow and cautious reaction. It took her party two years to break with FIDES. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's nationalist formation initially had its membership frozen due to a retreat from democratic values, and later left on its own.
Who conducts foreign policy
Due to frequent elections and the lack of a stable regular government in recent years, Bulgaria has failed to build a clear and coherent foreign policy strategy, which greatly weakens its position in the region and on the international stage. He also failed to implement a measured but persistent diplomacy with regard to the RSM, which would not hinder its democratization.
In practice, foreign policy was left in the hands of President Radev and his official foreign ministers, and the appointments of ambassadors cannot be made without his decrees. And although Bulgaria's geopolitical orientation has never been officially contested, some of Radev's statements at international forums regarding the war in Ukraine, too similar to pro-Russian positions, put the country in the position of an unreliable ally.
The head of state has made a significant contribution to straining relations with North Macedonia - he has always been a supporter of the hard policy towards Skopje, which meets with great approval in Bulgarian society, but destroys the dialogue. The president opposed political compromises with arguments for the protection of Bulgarian identity and cultural and historical heritage and special attention to the rights of Bulgarians in North Macedonia. It thus demonstrates principle, but worsens bilateral relations, dominating in the absence of regular authority. In June of last year, two weeks after the election of the PP-DB regular cabinet, Radev brought tension with his statement that “Skopje must learn its lesson”. He then announced that the RSM was not ready to start negotiations with the EU and covered up the lack of reforms and readiness by lobbying the European institutions.
Bulgaria played a leading role in supporting the European integration of the Western Balkans, notably by organizing the EU Summit on the Western Balkans in 2018, when it held the Presidency of the Council of the EU. But in the last three years, it has lost its influence in this process, and the main factor for this was the blocking of the beginning of the negotiations for membership of North Macedonia in the EU - due to unresolved issues surrounding the history, language and rights of the Bulgarians in the RSM. The veto caused disappointment among EU partners and prevented Bulgaria from maintaining its leading role in the region. Along with deteriorating bilateral relations, disputes with Skopje have limited Sofia's role as a key mediator in the Balkans.
Orbán breaks through in the Balkans
The blocked corridor 8 in favor of corridor 10, which serves the interests of Serbia and Hungary, further weakened Bulgaria's position in the region. North Macedonia announced a freeze on the route connecting the Black and Adriatic seas, and particularly important for NATO's military mobility in the context of the war in Ukraine. Skopje preferred the corridor connecting Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, North Macedonia and Hungary with Greece. But Bulgaria has also not advanced in its design readiness for the route of Corridor 8 on the Bulgarian side, which is proof of the lack of political will.
However, the EU did not allow RSM to redirect the 560 million euros with which it supports the construction of a railway line in North Macedonia along corridor 8, which will connect to the Bulgarian border. The funds are intended for a 24 km railway line between Kriva Palanka and Bulgaria, as well as for the electrification of an 88 km railway line between Kumanovo and the border with Bulgaria. But the railway to Belgrade, declared a priority by Skopje, also coincides with the joint Hungarian-Chinese project to expand and modernize the Budapest-Belgrade railway line. And a journalistic investigation revealed that Hungary's 500 million euro loan to North Macedonia was actually part of a 1 billion euro loan extended to Hungary by a consortium of Chinese banks.
The new government in Skopje is another conduit of Orban's harmful influence in the Balkans - his FIDES party is partnering with VMRO-DPMNE. Former Macedonian Prime Minister and leader of VMRO-DPMNE Nikola Gruevski, sanctioned by the USA for corruption, is hiding in Hungary. But Orbán is building strong political ties with FIDES-like nationalist and conservative political formations, especially in Serbia, North Macedonia and Montenegro. His close contacts with the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, are known, with whom he shares similar views on national independence and political conservatism, and especially on greater rapprochement with Russia and China. Companies linked to FIDES control media networks in Slovenia and North Macedonia, spreading pro-Russian and anti-Western messages.
Unforgivable for Sofia
Thus, taking advantage of nationalist sentiments and geopolitical divisions in the Balkans, Orbán is building an image of the leader of an alternative political bloc, more independent from Brussels and closer to Russia and China. The result is that with every provocation between Bulgaria and North Macedonia, the RSM is pulled into a Serbian-Russian orbit of influence, from where no Good Neighbor Treaty could bring it back, even at the cost of its EU membership. The Kremlin will like this, it will be unforgivable for Sofia to allow it.