Complete confusion among DPS voters: for whom will the people in the bastions of the Movement vote - for Peevski or for Dogan? And how will the Bulgarians vote in Turkey? Here's how things stand just days before the October 27 vote:
"The elections, which will be held in Bulgaria on Sunday, October 27, 2024, have once again become very important for all of us." This is how Yunal Ashak, mayor of Gaziemir, part of the Turkish city of Izmir, addresses his compatriots in a video on his official Instagram profile. The Turkish politician not only notes the importance of the elections in Bulgaria for his compatriots, but also makes a direct appeal: "We are waiting for your votes for the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, number 13", says Ashak.
In the Gaziemir municipality, in the elections on June 9 this year, voting took place in three sections, and the results are eloquent - out of 1,423 valid ballots, 1,302 were for DPS. The results throughout Izmir are similar - out of a total of 6,796 valid ballots, 6,369 were for the Movement for Rights and Freedoms.
The intrigue with the two DPS in Bulgaria and Turkey
In these elections, however, the situation is different. The DPS has split in two, and ballot number 13, which Gaziemir Mayor Yunal Ashak is calling for a vote, is actually for the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (ALF), the part of the DPS that remained under the control of the party's honorary chairman Ahmed Dogan .
Political analyst Berkai Chokcan, who closely follows the processes in the DPS, says that the APS has put serious efforts into the campaign in Turkey. "They tried to do a decent campaign and met quite a few politicians and expatriate organizations there," he explains. "While Peevski rather tried to hinder this process - for example with the actions against Hasan Aziz, who was among the people responsible for the campaign in Turkey. He was "tied up" in Kardzhali (with a measure of remand - BA)."
Stoil Tsitselkov from the organization United for Fair Elections notes a trend that has been observed in the last few parliamentary votes in Bulgaria when voting in Turkey. "In the last two or three elections, we observed something unique. While traditionally Erdoğan's party organizes the filling of the declarations, because the majority of people there do not know Bulgarian, now they were also organized by the opposition. Apparently, there is a consolidation around the belief that DPS needs such support, and Bulgaria needs such a party." The message of the mayor of Gaziemir, Yunal Esak, also points in this direction - he is a member of the opposition Republican People's Party in Turkey, whose presidential candidate Kemal Kulçdaroğlu was the main opponent of Recep Erdogan in the country's last presidential elections.
We have yet to find out how the Bulgarians will vote in Turkey, where in the previous elections 93.11% of voters supported the DPS. According to Berkay Çokcan, there are several important things that motivate expats in Turkey to vote for the party. "For the oldest, the trauma from the biggest crime of the communist regime - the so-called Revival process. They are also very excited about the possibility of their children and grandchildren receiving Bulgarian citizenship, which will open the doors to the European Union. There are also those who are not up to date with the other parties at all." Stoil Tsitselkov confirms this: "Many of the people there do not know other political parties. That's why I expect them to support Mr. Dogan," says the expert.
The situation in the so-called bastions of DPS in Bulgaria looks far more uncertain. In her report for "Free Europe" entitled "Icon vs. Phenomenon", Genka Shikerova met with traditional DPS voters in the Haskovo region to ask them about their sentiments before the elections. Most people in the report look confused. "People were waiting to be told," Shikerova told DV. "They are bound at the domestic level by many different things. The parents of the mayor of Dolni Glavanak, for example, say they don't know what to do yet. The choice of who this family will vote for goes through this woman. It falls on her head to decide whose side to take and to tell her mother and father, because they will vote as is best for their child," adds Shikerova.
"It is scary what is happening in places"
She describes the atmosphere she witnessed this way: "Everything is tied to addictions and fear - economic, emotional. It's scary what's happening in places. And I feel sorry for the way they exploit people."
According to Stoil Tsitselkov, who as an anthropologist has been researching the Rhodopes for many years and recently visited villages that traditionally vote for the DPS, it is not always a question of direct pressure. "I was surprised by the strong organic support for Delyan Peevski and "New Beginning". Some of the people there, who have been living far away and for many years in the model of "DPS Dogan", do see some possibility of change, he says after his meetings with local voters and observers of the election process. "What I was told is that the "new" are more generous with their promises," he adds.
Berkai Chokdzhan, who communicates with young DPS voters, agrees: "The young people who chose Delyan Peevski, according to my observations, are those who did not find the desired fulfillment under Dogan. Peevski, with control over certain institutions, is able to offer better prospects."
"Of course, another of his favorite tools of influence is slander and threats," adds Chokjan. "It is also decisive from which camp the mayor of the specific place is. In many places they give out aid, and the municipality is the biggest employer." Genka Shikerova gives a concrete example: "Let's look at the mayor of Madjarovo. He declared his support for Peevski, and his brother is one of the largest employers in the region."
Shikerova says that during her tours for "Free Europe" at the beginning of the campaign, it encountered mostly confusion among DPS voters. That is why he cannot predict who will prevail.
Election expert Stoil Tsitselkov believes that the sharp opposition between Peevski's and Dogan's wings also opens up opportunities: "An opportunity to understand more deeply the technology and mechanisms of vote control. So far we have never had an honest conversation with DPS. At the moment, people from the faction around Dogan are openly communicating with us as observers, providing us with data. I hope this breakthrough leads to specifics. People who have been part of these schemes would be very useful to us as a society."
"This is the way to break down this model"
"I notice an increasing interest of young people in alternative political formations. People always have the hope that if the old faces are replaced by new ones, there may be changes for the better, but nevertheless I think that both faces of the Movement - Dogan's and Peevski's - are exhausted," says Berkai Chokjan. For him, the "schism" between the honorary chairman and his "phenomenon" opens an opportunity for other political parties: "The integration of Turks, Muslims and all communities goes through the opening of all parties to them. This is the way to break down this model," he summarizes.